Strong Shear in Early August?

[hurricaneCW]

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=TA

If you take a look at the forecast by early August, you'll the heavy shear for most of the Atlantic. The accuracy is probably off, but it's concerning to see this as we enter the active part of the season. Signs of 2009?

[tolakram]

Are you expecting the strong shear to last all season long, in a La Nina year? Shear forecasts are almost always wrong. They may always be wrong, but I can't prove that.

[wxman57]

Shear has actually been below normal across the Atlantic in June and July. Sometimes quite significantly below normal. Here's the current shear anomaly plot for the basin:



For the Tropical Atlantic, shear has been well below normal EXCEPT for the past few days:


Caribbean shear remains well below normal:


Gulf remains below normal shear-wise:

[Scorpion]

Can any pro met chime in and explain how conditions are so unfavorable? There doesn't seem to anything on the horizon.. not even the long range GFS shows anything. This is seemingly turning out to be the biggest bust in the history of hurricane season forecasting.

[hurricanejunky]

Is the wind shear over 97L due solely to the ULL or general atmospheric conditions and the ULL? Or am I off base on this?

[hurricanetrack]

Think of all of the agencies that will have some huge explaining to do if this turns out to be a sub-par year. From Accuweather to UKMET to NOAA, they all called for a pretty darned big season. The only folks calling for a less than stellar season was WRC in Houston with 8 total named storms. Seven more to go....

[Scorpion]

Strange how on those shear maps it appears to be increasing as the season goes on..

[robbielyn]

Personally I am not surprised of the high wind shear for august and it could be a bust of a year cause the last 4 years theres been increased winds d/t increase of global temps. What scares me is if no hurricanes form how are we to stabilize the atmosphere? SST's are pretty hot down there in the s atlantic carribean area. Another wierd thing here in fl least our area is hardly no rain and this is our rainy season been a few days with no rain.

Increasing temperature leads to an increase in vertical wind shear which may inhibit the formation of hurricanes (Vecchi 2007).

[KWT]

All I'll say is 1950, 1955, 1961, 1998, 1999, 2004 and there are many more...

This argeument that this season may not be busy be3cause of some typical July could easily bust.

As I said in the other thread, 1961 had 1NS before...2nd of SEPTEMBER!!!!!
That season would never be called a bust, given we had 2 category-5s including one of the biggest ever with Carla...

Now onto another discussion about shear. As Wxman57 has proven with stats the shear has been below average bar maybe the last 2-3 days....the problem ius the low shear has been in the E.Atlantic where no development is likely anyway...whilst the higher shear has sat over June/July zones.

As we all know hurricanes develop further east then in June/July and once this shift occurs, things will get going.

1998 looking a very good guide at the moment FWIW...and that was a hyperactive season, with Bonnie on the 19th August I believe.