will 2010 be as active as 2005?

[year_2005]

Do you think that this year will be a season with around 15 storms or do you think we will have 21 storms or more this year. The water temperatures look exactly like they do in 2005 and there is a la nina which was not present in 2005. I don't really see why it won't be as active as 2005, but then again im an amateur.

[KWT]

I'll be quite blunt with the answer, and that answer is no!

As for whether this will be a 15NS season or a 21NS season, well that depends on what July does, if we follow more typical La Nina set-up we will end up probably around 14-16NS because the first half of the season tends to be slow in those years, but if July does end up being fairly active, then we are on for one of the most active years thats for sure.

[Aquawind]

There have been a number of previous threads related to this analogy you can read up on year_2005.. 2005 was a super freak year and forecasting that is just beyond reality when so many variables come into play with each and every wave.

Welcome to S2K

[year_2005]

please just dont say "it was a freak year", what made it like that, yes the waters were warm , but they were also warm in 1998. what was the "hidden variable or variables" that made 2005 super-active. this obviously isnt due to randomness that just caused more tropical waves to actually develop, it must have been some factor that was there during the entire season, what is this factor?

[tolakram]

Well that's the big question, isn't it? There is no definitive answer yet.

[year_2005]

ok , i am fascinated with hurricanes and espescially the 2005 season, do u think that we will go into the greek letters again in the next 60 years?

[brunota2003]

Actually, from what I've read, no more tropical waves than usual developed in 2005 than in other, less active, years (meaning, the number that did develop, versus total number).

[brunota2003]

I'm sure one day we will go into them again. Anytime soon, though? Probably not.

[KWT]

There was probably no more deep tropics storms than seasons like 33 and possibly 1887 even in 2005.

The difference can easily be made up by the subtropics part of the basin, esp the NE section which really did produce way more systems then normal (Azores STS, Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta all would count)...add 5 to the 1933s total and your upto 26, which is pretty close to what 2005 had.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Unlikely, but it will still certainly be a very active season.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not a chance. 2005 was a very very rare season. Ask any Met, they'll tell ya.....

[CrazyC83]

Highly unlikely. Those kind of seasons only happen about every 60 years. 1887 and 1933 probably were close to 2005 activity considering that they probably had some distant storms not accounted for.

I'd say a 1969 or 1995-like season is more realistic for an upper-end estimate.

[Ptarmigan]

Highly unlikely. Those kind of seasons only happen about every 60 years. 1887 and 1933 probably were close to 2005 activity considering that they probably had some distant storms not accounted for.

I'd say a 1969 or 1995-like season is more realistic for an upper-end estimate.

Consider the fact that no storms are recorded east of 35°W in 1887 and 1933. I think 1887 and 1933 were comparable to 2005, if not more active. Other seasons I think that were probably similar to 2005 were 1893 and perhaps 1936. A 2005 type season is rare. It is an outlier.

Interestingly, 1969 was a late starter and during an El Nino. 1969 reminds me of 2004.

I notice 2005 was very active because a good number of storms formed in areas that are not very favorable for development. Also, many of them formed closer to land and there not as many Cape Verde storms like 2004 and 2008.

[bob rulz]

While the chances of 2010 being as active as 2005 are low, I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out. Nature often proves that she has no appreciation of climatology.

[KWT]

True but I think Bob we are about to fall behind 2005 at an increasing rate even if 93L can become Alex...I don't see anything that is likely to develop other then 93L in the short-mid term as we head into July.

[Bocadude85]

True but I think Bob we are about to fall behind 2005 at an increasing rate even if 93L can become Alex...I don't see anything that is likely to develop other then 93L in the short-mid term as we head into July.

Actually we may see some slow development of the wave up by the northern antilles once it moves away from the shear in a couple of days.

[StormClouds63]

No!

[kenneywallace]

does it matter, all it takes is an ike caliber storm (bar the freak storms of 2005) to make a season a bad one.

heck one storm like agnus is bad enough

[americanre1]

All the experts are predicting us to get into the greek alphabet this year.

Highly unlikely. Those kind of seasons only happen about every 60 years. 1887 and 1933 probably were close to 2005 activity considering that they probably had some distant storms not accounted for.

I'd say a 1969 or 1995-like season is more realistic for an upper-end estimate.

Consider the fact that no storms are recorded east of 35°W in 1887 and 1933. I think 1887 and 1933 were comparable to 2005, if not more active. Other seasons I think that were probably similar to 2005 were 1893 and perhaps 1936. A 2005 type season is rare. It is an outlier.

Interestingly, 1969 was a late starter and during an El Nino. 1969 reminds me of 2004.

I notice 2005 was very active because a good number of storms formed in areas that are not very favorable for development. Also, many of them formed closer to land and there not as many Cape Verde storms like 2004 and 2008.

also if you notice the years you are spitting out. 1886 to 1893 is 6 years, 1933 to 1936 is 3 years, so with that being said yeah it might be every 50 years that we have seasons like that, but not until we have 2 of them within a short time frame of less than 10 years. So with that being said, I think we might actually be going for a record season this year in terms of Ace, most powerful storm, lowest pressure in a storm, everything. The dynamics are just too much for us not to have a monster year.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

All the experts are predicting us to get into the greek alphabet this year.

Highly unlikely. Those kind of seasons only happen about every 60 years. 1887 and 1933 probably were close to 2005 activity considering that they probably had some distant storms not accounted for.

I'd say a 1969 or 1995-like season is more realistic for an upper-end estimate.

Consider the fact that no storms are recorded east of 35°W in 1887 and 1933. I think 1887 and 1933 were comparable to 2005, if not more active. Other seasons I think that were probably similar to 2005 were 1893 and perhaps 1936. A 2005 type season is rare. It is an outlier.

Interestingly, 1969 was a late starter and during an El Nino. 1969 reminds me of 2004.

I notice 2005 was very active because a good number of storms formed in areas that are not very favorable for development. Also, many of them formed closer to land and there not as many Cape Verde storms like 2004 and 2008.

also if you notice the years you are spitting out. 1886 to 1893 is 6 years, 1933 to 1936 is 3 years, so with that being said yeah it might be every 50 years that we have seasons like that, but not until we have 2 of them within a short time frame of less than 10 years. So with that being said, I think we might actually be going for a record season this year in terms of Ace, most powerful storm, lowest pressure in a storm, everything. The dynamics are just too much for us not to have a monster year.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You raise a good point. 1893 and 1936 might of been challenging 1933 and 2005, but likely they come short. Perhaps, they had at most 16 to 18 storms.