New Wave emerging off Africa

[Weatherfreak000]

Impressive convection as well as nice structure. Considering the de-activation of 92L this has to be our best new chance at development.

[jinftl]

Climatology would say it is way way too early to be looking to the Cape Verde region for development in June....even into most of July. Even in 2005, it took until July 10th to get a t.d. to form east of the islands (what would become Hurricane Emily).

Impressive convection as well as nice structure. Considering ther de-activation of 92L this has to be our best new chance at development.

[lonelymike]

August 15 is the start of the Cape Verde season. The "real" hurricane season IMO.

[leanne_uk]

to be honest altho history goes against a CV system becoming a full system this early in the year, no one can discount how different this season is proving to be already just 20 days in. The SSTs are still above average and despite the shear issues which always cause issues this early on if a wave can develop around 10deg and track westerly with good convection no one knows what will happen.

[jinftl]

Not disagreeing with your take on the season thus far....but there will be just as many going with the premise that the season-to-date has been a dud and the forecasts for a busy season and the forecasts using some of the more infamous seasons as analogs....are in question....using the exact same data to support their view. That's what keeps this board lively and interesting!!!

to be honest altho history goes against a CV system becoming a full system this early in the year, no one can discount how different this season is proving to be already just 20 days in. The SSTs are still above average and despite the shear issues which always cause issues this early on if a wave can develop around 10deg and track westerly with good convection no one knows what will happen.

[Aquawind]

92L came so close sooo early.. I would not be shocked if CV season started with the next wave. I have a feeling everyone will be paying close attention to every wave from now on of course.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am very disappointed with the naysayers on this forum this year. I believe I may have to make a topic on this.

[KWT]

I'd be very surprised if anything comes off it, upper conditions aren't as good as they were with 92L and that really was a bit of a freak system that tried to develop so early.

As for the idea that just because we haven't had a system yet we are in a dud season compared to the forecast, should bare in mind that 8 out of 12 of the hyperactive seasons since 1950 had 1 or less storms before *august*...I think that alone should really end that arguement.

[Ivanhater]

I am very disappointed with the naysayers on this forum this year. I believe I may have to make a topic on this.

If all the data that has been shown and professionals that have said this will be a very active season doesn't get them, then nothing will. No need to argue the point with them now. I would suggest pulling out some early season naysaying quotes at the end of the season though

[jinftl]

Most tangible statistic i have heard to date to squelch any dud season cries on June 20....8 out of 12 hyperactive seasons had 1 or less storms before august. Good stuff.

If you think back to 2005 (the unrealistic benchmark that this season is being compared to) even, was it the june storms that made the season memorable?

I'd be very surprised if anything comes off it, upper conditions aren't as good as they were with 92L and that really was a bit of a freak system that tried to develop so early.

As for the idea that just because we haven't had a system yet we are in a dud season compared to the forecast, should bare in mind that 8 out of 12 of the hyperactive seasons since 1950 had 1 or less storms before *august*...I think that alone should really end that arguement.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am very disappointed with the naysayers on this forum this year. I believe I may have to make a topic on this.

If all the data that has been shown and professionals that have said this will be a very active season doesn't get them, then nothing will. No need to argue the point with them now. I would suggest pulling out some early season naysaying quotes at the end of the season though

It's not even necessarily about that Ivanhater...it's three things for me..if you don't mind me saying..

1) Constant inflow of posts that provide absolutely NOTHING to the topic of conversation. I am NOT interested in if you think the system isn't going to develop. I could care less, unless you can provide a substantial post suggesting your not just "following the crowd".

The point here being consider the sheer AMOUNT of random invests and phantom model systems we look at...compared to the percentage that actually develops, even in 2005 the percentage is small.

2) People are concerned with "Continuity and Forecasts". You know the types: self-righteous attitudes concerning their forecasting ability which, rather frankly, is completely irrelevent to anyone else. It's more or less just clogging up the conversation. But my final point here is..

3) Storm2K is a WEATHER ENTHUSIAST forum. Not a "you know what caster" forum and not a naysayer forum. We really could use ALOT less of it and I hate to say it but the Pro Mets seem to be only making it worse. Just think of the amount of users here who have fallen into the " Bones" gimmick. I mean geez...can't you guys give it a rest? The Pro Mets are providing useful information here, even when Wxman posts that graphic it's a PRO MET opinion through the image illustrated and the opinion is abandon hope the system is dead...therefore it's USEFUL to others to see him post it. When anyone else does it's just a complete waste of space.

I am sorry to the posters involved...but I will use this topic as an example.

Climatology would say it is way way too early to be looking to the Cape Verde region for development in June....even into most of July. Even in 2005, it took until July 10th to get a t.d. to form east of the islands (what would become Hurricane Emily).

That information doesn't provide anything to this conversation. Most posters know that is the case anyway, so why bother spreading what we have been discussing all month? It's a waste of space.

August 15 is the start of the Cape Verde season. The "real" hurricane season IMO.

...Indeed.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest image is out and I still like the structure. Notice the wave behind it as well.

[KWT]

Climatology would say it is way way too early to be looking to the Cape Verde region for development in June....even into most of July. Even in 2005, it took until July 10th to get a t.d. to form east of the islands (what would become Hurricane Emily).

That information doesn't provide anything to this conversation. Most posters know that is the case anyway, so why bother spreading what we have been discussing all month? It's a waste of space.

Of course it does, there is a image there which shows how rare these systems are, the simple facts are your not likely at all to see a system in this region of the basin and he is providing evidence that it is the case.

In the end its a forum where everyone should be allowed there say, some people out there nust don't have the knowleadge to make substainal posts about whether a system will develop or not. Just the way forums like this tend to work.

Most of the people on this thread and others aren't naysayers weatherfreak, they are just being realisitic. 92L did have a real shot but how many systems have we had like 92L in the last 150 years, probably as few as 5-10 if we assume there were some systems which formed east of the Windwards pre-Sat era.

[jinftl]

This point in the season...before things get going...which we all know they will...may be as good as time as any to say that this is a forum for those who are interested in the discussing or reading about or speculating on the tropics. For someone to find a board like this, and then to take the next to step to actually post on it, no doubt shows a certain level of interest and enthusiasm about the subject at hand.

Gosh, for a fellow enthusiast (and i apologize if you are in fact able to pay your bills based on your knowledge of the tropics, in which case, why play in our sandbox?) to say that someone who has put themselves out there because of a shared interest in the subject provides nothing to the conversation is way too arrogant/delusional in my opinion. We are not talking about Katrina being 175 miles southeast of new orleans as a Cat 5 and vital info is being passed along. No one opinion before a single system has formed in a season is less valid than another. Worst case - scroll down a few lines and don't focus on posts that insult your all-knowing (unpaid) expertise. This is an open forum. If you want to not muddy your insights with the thoughts, opinions, and voice of others, i suggest opening a blog or leaving this silly banter to us amateurs.

Does it really bother you so much...or prove to be such a burden/incovenience/obstacle to the flow of information if posters write one or 2 lines that add no value, in your view? We are all here because we share an interest. We are not making forecast and emergency management decisions that require 'keeping the lines clear'. Relax and understand that no one would come on here to be a 'naysayer' just to upset or frustrate you. Speaking personally, it took a certain amount of confidence before I made my first post pre-hurricane frances. Given this is a public forum, a discussion board for people around the world, any post...as long as it is not off the subject of the tropics or hurtful and disrespectful to others...is valid. Gee, such a big deal to scroll past a post that isn't 'worthy'. Get over yourself. My guess is you have made as much money from your knowledge of the tropics as the posters who, in your words, add no value. Last time I checked, this is not a value-added site, it is a discussion forum that has 2 dozen smilies that can be added to a post. If I add smilies, has my post reduced in value?

If a nod to climatology doesn't add value to a conversation on waves emerging off of Africa in June, then, i hate to say, you really don't have an objective view of the tropics. We will see how this outcome focused, disregard the science, approach works out for you. Sad day on storm2k when a post on climatology and the cape verde season is viewed as adding nothing. Feel free to ignore my future posts...no doubt they will be boring and full of 'duh, we all know that' info. That said, I still do maintain this will be an active season....but that doesn't mean every thunderstorm over Dakar in June is the second coming of Katrina. Believe it or not, there are clouds and convection year-round off the coast of africa.

I am very disappointed with the naysayers on this forum this year. I believe I may have to make a topic on this.

If all the data that has been shown and professionals that have said this will be a very active season doesn't get them, then nothing will. No need to argue the point with them now. I would suggest pulling out some early season naysaying quotes at the end of the season though

It's not even necessarily about that Ivanhater...it's three things for me..if you don't mind me saying..

1) Constant inflow of posts that provide absolutely NOTHING to the topic of conversation. I am NOT interested in if you think the system isn't going to develop. I could care less, unless you can provide a substantial post suggesting your not just "following the crowd".

The point here being consider the sheer AMOUNT of random invests and phantom model systems we look at...compared to the percentage that actually develops, even in 2005 the percentage is small.

2) People are concerned with "Continuity and Forecasts". You know the types: self-righteous attitudes concerning their forecasting ability which, rather frankly, is completely irrelevent to anyone else. It's more or less just clogging up the conversation. But my final point here is..

3) Storm2K is a WEATHER ENTHUSIAST forum. Not a "you know what caster" forum and not a naysayer forum. We really could use ALOT less of it and I hate to say it but the Pro Mets seem to be only making it worse. Just think of the amount of users here who have fallen into the " Bones" gimmick. I mean geez...can't you guys give it a rest? The Pro Mets are providing useful information here, even when Wxman posts that graphic it's a PRO MET opinion through the image illustrated and the opinion is abandon hope the system is dead...therefore it's USEFUL to others to see him post it. When anyone else does it's just a complete waste of space.

I am sorry to the posters involved...but I will use this topic as an example.

Climatology would say it is way way too early to be looking to the Cape Verde region for development in June....even into most of July. Even in 2005, it took until July 10th to get a t.d. to form east of the islands (what would become Hurricane Emily).

That information doesn't provide anything to this conversation. Most posters know that is the case anyway, so why bother spreading what we have been discussing all month? It's a waste of space.

August 15 is the start of the Cape Verde season. The "real" hurricane season IMO.

...Indeed.

[Weatherfreak000]

Gosh, for a fellow enthusiast (and i apologize if you are in fact able to pay your bills based on your knowledge of the tropics, in which case, why play in our sandbox?) to say that someone who has put themselves out there because of a shared interest in the subject provides nothing to the conversation is way too arrogant/delusional in my opinion.

I don't believe anybody ever said that. What you fail to recognize is that this IS a forum...and it is dependent upon the maturity and better judgement of its posters. Do you ever stop to wonder why Storm2K is consistently going down? The moderators are always ALWAYS complaining about "Spam" posting. I just don't see why you find my comments as arrogant or delusional when clogging up the forum is hurting the forum we love. I speak about IMPROVING Storm2k, and that's all there is to it. So to answer your question yes, I do believe some posts are problematic. If I didnt I wouldn't say so.

No one opinion before a single system has formed in a season is less valid than another.

Now see that's just plain untrue. I don't think I need to explain to you why that is untrue either, I am sure you know. My point in my post was Storm2k can be improved. It can be done by cutting away useless information. And why do I care?

I look forward to a hurricane season when, at pivotal moments in a system's development, we won't see server crashes.

[sphelps8681]

Not everyone that posts on here is all knowledgeable about tropical weather. I for one need those "duh" posts to keep informed. I look to this website sometimes for the most obvious answers to questions that I might have.

I believe this website is very informing with very knowledgeable people. Keep up the good work everyone.

Thanks so much.

[Aquawind]

This stuff is the nature of the beast and has been discussed on this board and all boards for years..We have some competent people handling the server and they have done a great job when the servers are actually busy. When things do actually get busy the staff will reinterate the issue and take the appropriate actions.

The servers are not consistently going down and this board has alot more to it than weather.

You made your point..talk to the staff or post in the suggestion forum...the subject of this post is.."New Wave emerging off Africa"..Let's get back to it..

[Weatherfreak000]

This stuff is the nature of the beast and has been discussed on this board and all boards for years..We have some competent people handling the server and they have done a great job when the servers are actually busy. When things do actually get busy the staff will reinterate the issue and take the appropriate actions.

The servers are not consistently going down and this board has alot more to it than weather.

You made your point..talk to the staff or post in the suggestion forum...the subject of this post is.."New Wave emerging off Africa"..Let's get back to it..

Yes I am very sorry Aquawind, were it not from the antagonizing nature of others i'd have never have responded back.




Latest image out...still nice structure.

[Aquawind]

Yes and it looks like another nice wave behind it as well over Africa yet.. This is the type of year every cluster or spin is to be watched for actual development.

[Weatherfreak000]

Can someone post an image of the wavetrain in africa for me please?