Invest 92L Personal Forcasts

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is where you can put your own personal forcast. Mine will be up later.

Note(very importanat)-Don't forget the disclaimer!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overview:Invest 92 is reaching warm waters, with no SAL and 10KT> shear. Conditions remain favorable for about 50 hours, then worsen. The storm is showing rapid organanization including banding.

Based on this, my forcast is below

0 Hours-I-30MPH
6 Hours-I-35MPH
12 Hours-I-35MPH
24 Hours-TS-45MPH
48 Hours-TS-65MPH
72 Hours-TS-70MPH
96 Hours-TS-50MPH
120 Hours-TS-40MPH


-Daniel

[Gustywind]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overview:Invest 92 is reaching warm waters, with no SAL and 10KT> shear. Conditions remain favorable for about 50 hours, then worsen. The storm is showing rapid organanization including banding.

Based on this, my forcast is below

0 Hours-I-30MPH
6 Hours-I-35MPH
12 Hours-I-35MPH
24 Hours-TS-45MPH
48 Hours-TS-65MPH
72 Hours-TS-70MPH
96 Hours-TS-50MPH
120 Hours-TS-40MPH


-Daniel

Thanks and where 92L will go? Do you think that the East Carib could be impacted by this?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overview:Invest 92 is reaching warm waters, with no SAL and 10KT> shear. Conditions remain favorable for about 50 hours, then worsen. The storm is showing rapid organanization including banding.

Based on this, my forcast is below

0 Hours-I-30MPH
6 Hours-I-35MPH
12 Hours-I-35MPH
24 Hours-TS-45MPH
48 Hours-TS-65MPH
72 Hours-TS-70MPH
96 Hours-TS-50MPH
120 Hours-TS-40MPH


-Daniel

Thanks and where 92L will go? Do you think that the East Carib could be impacted by this?

East carribean? No. I think it will bypass the antillies to the north and target the SE coast. But keep checking back. I might need to change that if this thing doesent go north.

[Gustywind]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Overview:Invest 92 is reaching warm waters, with no SAL and 10KT> shear. Conditions remain favorable for about 50 hours, then worsen. The storm is showing rapid organanization including banding.

Based on this, my forcast is below

0 Hours-I-30MPH
6 Hours-I-35MPH
12 Hours-I-35MPH
24 Hours-TS-45MPH
48 Hours-TS-65MPH
72 Hours-TS-70MPH
96 Hours-TS-50MPH
120 Hours-TS-40MPH


-Daniel

Thanks and where 92L will go? Do you think that the East Carib could be impacted by this?

East carribean? No. I think it will bypass the antillies to the north and target the SE coast. But keep checking back. I might need to change that if this thing doesent go north.

Ok thanks for your opinion we appreciate.

[Hurricane Andrew]

We???

Net update at 12PM

[Hurricane Andrew]

Come on people. I wanna see YOUR forcast.

[Swimdude]

The posts in this forum (especially mine!) are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such (EVER!). They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


All right Hurricane Andrew, I'll give you a little forecast, since you asked so nicely. I think 92L is going to take another 18-24 hours before the NHC decides it's a depression. I say this because of its large size, low latitude, and the fact that it has been off-and-on throughout the day today.

After 24 hours, I'd say we'll see a relatively short-lived tropical storm, with winds peaking in the 45-55 mph range. After that, the shear monster attacks.

After that's all said and done, I believe it'll head toward the Caribbean, but whether it'll be a threat again or not is way too far into the future to determine.

I realize I haven't given many *exacts,* but I'm no pro by any means, and this is the best I can do with the knowledge I have.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, its 2 AM, and I have not done that much research on this system today, but I'll still through something out there. I should have a more thorough opinion out mid day tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 92L
Forecast #1
2:00 AM EDT

Over the past 24 hours, Invest 92L has continued to become better organized, and while it is not quite a TD yet, it should be within 12-18 hours.

Although 92L has a well defined LCC, convection has been concentrated away from the center in the NW quadrant. However, it appears as though convection has started to fire closer to the center over the past couple hours. Until convection is able to persist over or near the LCC, strengthening will be limited. A recent ASCAT scan has showed that even though the invest is organized, it is lacking winds necessary to declare 92L a tropical depression. Currently, 92L is moving WNW at about 15 MPH, and it should continue along this path and speed for the next 36-48 hours before starting to slow down.

92L will have generally favorable conditions to strengthen into a weak tropical storm over the next two days. However, as 92L nears 50W, it will feel the effects of a TUTT to it’s northwest. The TUTT will weaken 92L and potentially cause the system to revert into an open wave. However, it is still possible that 92L may retain it’s LCC through its passage to the Lesser Antilles. If 92L can keep a circulation, it could be able to restrengthen after it passes the TUTT in about 5 days. The most likely scenario though is that the TUTT destroys 92L. However, 92L is shown as a tropical depression in the forecast cone to represent both possible scenarios.

[JonathanBelles]

Storm2k.org Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

AL061410 -- Invest 92L -- Submitted: 10:00am Eastern Time Edit #1

Definitions (These are my definitions, and are not from the NHC or anywhere else)
o Invest: Area of interest that the National Hurricane Center and others are watching for possible development into a tropical cyclone. Short for investigation; generally of low pressure areas.
o Wind Shear: Directional wind moving in a direction that hinders cyclonic development in the tropics. Shear takes the tops of clouds off the top of a cyclone.
o Ocean Heat Content: Temperature of greater depth than just a few feet below sea level feeds storms much more successfully than a shallow sea surface temperature.
o Cyclogenesis: birth of a cyclone
o Trough: an elongated area of low pressure

<Graphic will be unavailable for now, but may be added later>

This is an abbreviated forecast from about 38,000 feet above TX. This forecast may be amended if time allows please keep track of the number of edits and time submitted.

Invest 92L is holding its own over the southeastern North Atlantic; May have a shot at being designated a depression in the next 24 hours….

Brief Synopsis: 92L is holding its own with most of its deep convection to its north for now. Outflow to the north is very good, but lower convergence is a little on the lacking side. SST’s and OHC is only getting better as the invest moves to the NW. Shear is relatively light right now allowing for some slow organization. Dry air is well to the north of this invest, and will have little to no effect on it as of now.

Forecast: 92L should continue to build a central dense overcast under which it will build a stronger lower level circulation. This will allow 92L to slowly intensify and feed off of the warm SST’s. In 3-5 days time, there is an area of higher shear that will impede growth and may cause the invest to weaken for a time before returning to favorable conditions. This invest will move in a northwest fashion for now. My current path projections are similar to the 00Z GFDL forecast track. Intensity wise I think that given the shear and SST forecast a moderate tropical storm is possible. If this does get named by the National Hurricane Center, the name will be Alex.

Forecast Likelihoods:
Forecast Confidence: 60%
92L Cyclogenesis: 70%

Meteorology Student Jonathan at 38,000 Feet over Texas -- Fact789

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 92L
Forecast #2
June 14, 2010
12:00 PM EDT

Invest 92L continues to slowly organize.

Overnight, 92L’s circulation became more consolidated, which could allow it to strengthen and organize faster. Convection has continued to form closer to the elongated LCC, although most of the system’s convection remains in it’s NE quadrant. 92L continues to move to the WNW near 15 MPH (with a short term motion towards the NW), and should remain on this course for the next couple days before slowing down and making a bend to the west.

The computer models have changed little from last night in terms of forecast track. The biggest change from the 18z model run to the 00z and 06z runs is that the GFDL is no longer calling for early dissipation of 92L. Most models in the 00z, 06z, and 12z (BAM Models) runs take 92L through the Lesser Antilles. Overall, the models have slowly been trending south, and my forecast cone does as well.

92L will have decent enough conditions to strengthen slowly over the next couple days. However, as it approaches 50W, it will endure increasing wind shear, which will hamper further development and potentially weaken 92L back into an open wave. In the next 2 days before 92L begins experiencing the shear, I expect the invest to strengthen into a weak tropical storm with a maximum of 45 MPH winds. 92L will endure the shear for a few days, and if 92L can survive, it could be in a more conductive environment for development. The extent the shear will effect 92L is dependent on 92L’s latitude. The further south 92L travels, the less the shear will hamper it. My forecast cone now shows 92L becoming a tropical depression sometime today, becoming a TS tomorrow, and weakening back into a TD by Thursday and remaining as a TD for the rest of the forecast.

[vbhoutex]

Some very good work gentlemen. I'm not as bullish as you seem to be for development due to the fact I think the shear will get to it earlier than most think. That is about all the forecast I will give for now if you can even call it that. My thoughts are more detailed in the discussion thread. I did want to give kudos for the thorough analysis we are seeing.

[Swimdude]

Some very good work gentlemen. I'm not as bullish as you seem to be for development due to the fact I think the shear will get to it earlier than most think. That is about all the forecast I will give for now if you can even call it that. My thoughts are more detailed in the discussion thread. I did want to give kudos for the thorough analysis we are seeing.

Yup--I think you're right. The shear is pretty apparent on a 12-hour loop... I think the window of opportunity for development might've been yesterday--we just didn't realize that until today!