Shear lifting out/ Season likely to start soon

[Ivanhater]

Shouldn't be long before we see our first storm especially with the active tropical waves and abnormally warm waters.

[george_r_1961]

Theres still considerable shear out there and IMHO it will take a while, at least a couple of weeks and maybe longer, for the pattern to become more favorable for tropical storm formation. This isnt to say a hybrid type mess wont form out there but nothing significant and nothing will come near the US for awhile.

That upper trough in the central atlantic has got to lift out and be replaced by a ridge.

[KWT]

There certainly has been big shear in the Gulf but the models have been lifting out the jet streak for a while so I think its quite likely the shear that has been effecting the Gulf is decreasing.

The whole basin is decently below average right now, it just depends on getting a disturbance into the Caribbean at a high enough latitude.

I can't imagine things staying quiet for much longer to be honest.

[hurricanetrack]

While I see nothing soon, it is only a matter of time at this point. The pot is about ready to boil and has quite a flame under it to keep it going. Thinking we could see a named storm near the end of the month. Just my opinion based on past history in seasons like this. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

I have looked into a big number of sites but I can't find a link to these monthly graphics that show the tracks and developments of systems.Who can provide the link?

[Category 5]

FYI, this is nothing out of the ordinary.

[KWT]

Shear is well below normal now category-5, so its not exactly usual to see shear as low as it is across the basin.

It'll be interesting to see how the idea that a strengthening La Nina reduces the risk of an early season system plays out over the next month or so.

[HurricaneRobert]

The Euro shows a low off the Carolina coasts in 120 hours. It is homegrown, I think.

edit: As of 12 UTC...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro shows a low off the Carolina coasts in 120 hours. It is homegrown, I think.

edit: As of 12 UTC...

That is the Upper Low currently near S TX.

[LCfromFL]

Hey Luis - I think the historical tracks you're looking for are on wunderground.com. Unisys also has track and category information for historical storms.

Hope this helps

[clfenwi]

Ditto what LCfromFL said; that looks like a Wunderground graphic. Specifically, something that Dr. Masters would put together for one of his monthly/bi-weekly outlooks (see his July 2009 outlook, for example. Poking around the tropical archive, I couldn't find an "all seasons" graphic like that, just the individual season ones.

Of course, you could go to NOAA's Hurricane Historical tracks and make your own.
All Atlantic basin storms, June 1851-2009 below:

[cycloneye]

Thank you clfenwi for posting the link to that site that is better than the WU one as we can make different historical graphics. Thanks also to LCfromFL.

[gatorcane]

The shear may be relaxing but there just isn't anything I can see to get a system going just yet. The wet phase of the MJO does not appear that it will enter the Western Caribbean for quite sometime. In fact models don't show the wet phase of the MJO entering the Western Caribbean at all for the next 40 days. It may be another 10-14 days or so before we could possibly get a suspect area especially since models are showing just about nothing forming through 168 hours (albeit NOGAPS hints at a broad surface low forming in the SW Caribbean in about 7 days from now but at this time am discarding this solution as NOGAPS is not known to be good at forecasting tropical cyclone formation at extended ranges).

You would want to look for a trough that sets up in the GOM or Western Caribbean or a tropical wave. The shear could change by then and not be quite as favorable across the GOM and Western Caribbean where we would look for development as we move through June. Just remember things may be lining up for an active season but this part of the season just isn't typically active so don't be surprised if it takes some more time to get something going.

[StormClouds63]

Slow start, but a busy 2-3 months to follow ... in the poll, I guessed July 20 for the first named storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though there's no indication anything is getting going now, I still think we will see our first named storm by the middle of July...I think in about 2 weeks we'll start to see some good looking waves, and then give it another couple of weeks and we should have our first named storm. But who really knows, right?

[KWT]

I think there is a shot at getting 2-3 storms by mid July, esp if we do end up getting a good MJO wave kick through by that time which is quite possible...

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the MJO,the wet phase will arrive by late June going into early July and that timeframe is when we may see developments.

[Emmett_Brown]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear. I think we still have about 3 weeks to go before we see conditions improve IMO.

[srainhoutx]

On the contrary, the shear seems to be hanging tough in the Caribbean and MDR. I know we are in ENSO neutral at the moment, but the pattern looks a bit like left over Nino type shear. I think we still have about 3 weeks to go before we see conditions improve IMO.

I agree. That has been my concern for a while now. With that said, we are getting closer to some development as shear relaxes in the week ahead. Remember, there has been mention of an MJO pulse. We shall see.

[tolakram]

Looks like June. It's still spring people.