Complacency in South Florida

[StarmanHDB]

What is up with South Florida?

The reason I ask is because it seems that anytime I mention the fact that the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be possibly record-breaking, all I ever hear is "they say that every year" or "they said the same thing last year and nothing happened". While I can prove these ostriches completely wrong about the 2009 season, I have no idea of how to deal with the annual "it'll never happen down here" types. Even if I mention Andrew or Wilma, I get the same deer-in-the-headlights look accompanied by the inevitable not-in-this-lifetime answer.

My bottom line is this....Should I even keep trying to spread the word? After all, even though I have a strong interest in the big storms, I am no "expert". Furthermore, aside from those same naysayers rioting, shooting, and looting after the fact, should I even care? Again, it seems like they don't, so why should I?

What a state! After three years of living down here, the 2000 Presidential Election finally makes perfect sense! Way to go FLOR-UH-DUH!

[AdamFirst]

South Florida is used to all the rhetoric and that's not going to change anytime soon. Hurricanes are a price we pay for living in paradise (well, a soon to be oil coated paradise, but that's a different story)

Plus people don't want to spend their money on supplies until they really need them. I don't blame them, I do the same.

[ftolmsteen]

It's like that everywhere I think. It's extremely common to hear things like that up here around Tampa Bay where hurricanes seem to steer away from.

[Ixolib]

Pretty much, unless a particular area has been completely devastated by a storm, the complacency exists everywhere.

But certainly, those who actually experienced - or more precisely - those who were DIRECTLY impacted with the life-changing consequences of Wilma, Andrew, Katrina, etc, aren't complacent.

The comparisons of those had DIRECT IMPACTS vs. those who experienced FRINGE EFFECTS is literally night and day - probably on a ratio of 1,000 or more to 1.

And it is those who experienced just the "effects" who become complacent. They just "think" they've been through a major storm...

[gatorcane]

I agree with the posters so far. There always seems to be some level of complacency. That is why it is important that agencies such as NOAA do not have a high storm number bias in their seasonal forecast. Because if they did that, they would lose credibility.

On another note, however, I have been looking around for installing some accordions and shutter companies have become quite busy across South FL, since the NOAA release. So at least some people are taking this season seriously.

[AdamFirst]

People around my neighborhood are more ready than others (that whole "it's going to miss us" argument gets thrown out the window when you have two hurricanes hit in the exact same area within three weeks of each other). We were also affected by Wilma (I was 3 days without electricirty, others were out for a week+), and most recently Fay in '08, where it dumped like two feet of water on us and left the oldest parts of PSL waterlogged. Still, if we go without a storm for one year, that's what happens...the complacency comes back. Many people around here didn't prepare for Fay, after getting panicked over a piddling little rainstorm that was TS Ernesto in '06 and getting nothing in '07. Around here people are better off in a way, but since no hurricanes ever seem to hit miami or fort lauderdale, you're going to get that attitude everywhere you look.

[thetruesms]

Pretty much, unless a particular area has been completely devastated by a storm, the complacency exists everywhere.

But certainly, those who actually experienced - or more precisely - those who were DIRECTLY impacted with the life-changing consequences of Wilma, Andrew, Katrina, etc, aren't complacent.

The comparisons of those had DIRECT IMPACTS vs. those who experienced FRINGE EFFECTS is literally night and day - probably on a ratio of 1,000 or more to 1.

And it is those who experienced just the "effects" who become complacent. They just "think" they've been through a major storm...

I don't think I can agree with you enough on this one. It seems that many people assign the maximum strength of the storm to what they experienced, regardless of where they were in relation to the storm and what they actually experienced.

[artist]

Pretty much, unless a particular area has been completely devastated by a storm, the complacency exists everywhere.

But certainly, those who actually experienced - or more precisely - those who were DIRECTLY impacted with the life-changing consequences of Wilma, Andrew, Katrina, etc, aren't complacent.

The comparisons of those had DIRECT IMPACTS vs. those who experienced FRINGE EFFECTS is literally night and day - probably on a ratio of 1,000 or more to 1.

And it is those who experienced just the "effects" who become complacent. They just "think" they've been through a major storm...

I don't think I can agree with you enough on this one. It seems that many people assign the maximum strength of the storm to what they experienced, regardless of where they were in relation to the storm and what they actually experienced.

that was a huge problem after Frances and Jeanne hit here back to back in 2004. Even though some areas only experienced minimal conditions, they thought they had experienced the fullest force of them. And then when Wilma came along and gave some of these same people her fullest affects, they were floored. I do hope that with these 3 that many will try to be better prepared this year.

[gatorcane]

Another thing about Wilma is that it came through SE FL as a CAT 2 not a CAT 3. Though many would like to think that Wilma is about as strong as it can get (and that they experienced a major hurricane). I couldn't imagine a CAT 3 or higher here in metro SE FL.

[fci]

I think if we go for a 10-20 year span without a hit, then complacency is an issue here. Between Andrew and the onslaught of Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in a 3 year span; the complacency was rampant.(and Andrew as bad as it was only affected Dade county and not up here in Palm Beach or even Broward; so the gap between storms was really long beyond Dade in 1992)
I think that the memories of Wilma are still fresh enough that people take it seriously.
However, the point made by Gatorcane is true, Wilma was only a Cat 2 and people think that is about as bad as it can get and they are wrong.
A cat 3 or 4 down here would be horrific.

[HURAKAN]

People may be complacent by nature and the availability of stuff makes them even more. You get a hurricane, no power and no water but you almost immediately get the Red Cross, Police, etc, delivering water and ice to people. In most storms, local supermarkets will open after the storms passes, etc.

If we lived in a country where people had only the stuff they have at home and the government wouldn't have an emergency response to disasters, people would take more care of what they have and would get more ready for a hurricane.

[artist]

:uarrow:
Another thing about Wilma is that it came through SE FL as a CAT 2 not a CAT 3. Though many would like to think that Wilma is about as strong as it can get (and that they experienced a major hurricane). I couldn't imagine a CAT 3 or higher here in metro SE FL.

yeah, I know what you mean. We were in the southern eyewall for both Francis and Jeanne and then along came Wilma. She felt like a breeze to us while others were proclaiming how much worse Wilma was.
And when I was able to check to see the wind speeds after the fact (Frances & Jeanne)for our areas I realized hey, we have only been through a cat 1 and that is scary. With Jeanne I do think we were within a minivortex within the eyewall as we had so much debris in our yard (and our neighbors) we couldn't believe it - shoes, car parts, chairs, insulators etc. none belonging to the neighborhood. People just don't understand.
The NHC used to have a map where you could see what the wind speeds were at you location (at least I thought it was them) and I can't find it now. Does anyone know where I might find it? Maybe it was skeetobite. I wish I could get my hand on them again as I can't remember the exact speeds we did experience with each of them.

[x-y-no]

The comparisons of those had DIRECT IMPACTS vs. those who experienced FRINGE EFFECTS is literally night and day - probably on a ratio of 1,000 or more to 1.

And it is those who experienced just the "effects" who become complacent. They just "think" they've been through a major storm...

Absolutely. I can't count the number of people I've talked to over the years who were in north Dade or even south Broward county and think that they experienced Andrew.

Unfortunately I don't think there's any cure for this syndrome. I sure as heck don't wish my experience with that storm on anyone, however educational it would be for them.

[Frank2]

First, how many people did you ask - are you a public official or a member of the media? Most people I know (at work and through various groups) are well aware of the situation and know that it's time to start thinking about what to do - but it's stressful to think about it, similar to their having to undergo surgery in a few weeks or months for a condition that is not getting any better, so to ease their mind they try not to be reminded...

It's not the best way to deal with something that important, but that's how most people deal with it...

But some are complacent, and complacency is a weak link in our human nature when it comes to trying to forget the past -- even 9/11 is now becoming a part of American "history" -- and that's just what some individuals or groups want people to believe, since history equates to something (whether it be a weather event or human threat) that no longer exists...

And the same was true with Hurricane Andrew -- as some long-time S2K folks know, I lived 3 miles from Metro Zoo at the time of Andrew, and needless to say that's why I've been living in Broward County ever since, so no complancency on my part, and Andrew aside (since that's 18 long years ago)...

We have the 2004 (Frances, Jeanne) and the 2005 (Katrina, Wilma) seasons to recall (before you arrived), when this area either was hit directly or indirectly from no less than 4 hurricanes, so when it comes to complacency I'd have to say that it's not that but denial - similar to folks not wanting to believe the current oil spill is as bad as it really is...

A husband and wife who live in Pinecrest (Miami) and are old friends of mine, once told me that they visited our old weekend hangouts (so to speak) in the Homestead area a couple of weeks after Andrew, and to my frustration their denial was hard to ignore when the wife told me, "It didn't look that bad..." - now that's denial, since the same woman did not want to even discuss 9/11 a number of months after that happened, so in the end complacency is a first cousin of denial, which is a sister of fear, and fear of death in particular, since it's much easier to go through life with blinders on, instead of coming to terms with the fact that we live in a dangerous and unpredictable world - and that doesn't mean that we should live in fear, for we shouldn't, but it does mean that we are better prepared for anything when we accept the possibility that danger does exist...

And, if you want to make any friends on this board, since many long-time S2K members are also long-time Florida residents or even native Floridians, I wouldn't insult the people that call this area home...

Frank

[artist]

What is up with South Florida?

The reason I ask is because it seems that anytime I mention the fact that the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be possibly record-breaking, all I ever hear is "they say that every year" or "they said the same thing last year and nothing happened". While I can prove these ostriches completely wrong about the 2009 season, I have no idea of how to deal with the annual "it'll never happen down here" types. Even if I mention Andrew or Wilma, I get the same deer-in-the-headlights look accompanied by the inevitable not-in-this-lifetime answer.

My bottom line is this....Should I even keep trying to spread the word? After all, even though I have a strong interest in the big storms, I am no "expert". Furthermore, aside from those same naysayers rioting, shooting, and looting after the fact, should I even care? Again, it seems like they don't, so why should I?

What a state! After three years of living down here, the 2000 Presidential Election finally makes perfect sense! Way to go FLOR-UH-DUH!

too bad you seem to be upset you had to move from wherever you previously resided. Personally, this is the best state ever, thus why I left Tx after 42 years.
(I still love TX, but its just not the same as here)

[jinftl]

The season just started....and most folks down here are savvy enough to know that the season really won't get going for a few months. I have full confidence that if a storm threatens and we are placed under hurricane watches and warnings, folks will take the threat seriously and prepare.

Complacency in early June when there is no storm threat on the horizon may not be indicative of what folks will think and do if a storm threatens down the road. Hoping for the best...esp in an area that will typically fall under several 'cones of uncertainty' during the course of any season due to geography....at this point in the season may be more indicative of a level-headed and rational approach to viewing the upcoming season than a deep-seeded attitude of denial.

[Frank2]

True - and Florida is the Spanish term for "Feast of Flowers" (Easter), not the nasty definition that was posted here...

Ugh - if there is one thing I can't stand, it's someone that moves here (usually from New York City) and complains about everything "not being like New York"!!!

I wouldn't call that dirty city anything to crow about - it once was a beautiful place to live in - when the Indians lived there...

Frank

[jinftl]

Luckily I-95 has northbound lanes...

True - and Florida is the Spanish term for "Feast of Flowers" (Easter), not the nasty definition that was posted here...

Ugh - if there is one thing I can't stand, it's someone that moves here (usually from New York City) and complains about everything "not being like New York"!!!

I wouldn't call that dirty city anything to crow about - it once was a beautiful place to live in - when the Indians lived there...

Frank

[xraymike1]

When Wilma was on the way to Florida, I asked my boss to have time to get my shutters up and get hurricane ready as I had duty for the storm in the hospital, She said "YOUR GOING TO PUT UP YOUR SHUTTERS!!!!" it is only a cat 1. I told her it was a hurricane and I was getting everything ready. Very few had stocked up and even the doctors weren't thinking of putting up their shutters.

When I got to the hospital before the storm and walked in with a cooler, a duffel bag with clothes and uniforms, battery operated lights, and television; I was laughed at and said what was that needed for.... Well Wilma took out the cable and I was the only one had an opening to the outside world. Then about 4 hours after the storm when I was relieved and driving home, I heard call after call asking when ice and water would be started to be handed out.

As a Native Floridian, I have been thru hurricanes since I was 3 months old, I have tracked them since 5 and of course since I am here, I am a weather nut, I have laughed every hurricane season listening to those that think it can't happen to them. Knowing they will be the first to yell for help and say THEY DIDN'T KNOW!!!!!!

[ronjon]

The SE FL coast is due for a major hurricane. Will it be this year? If history is any guide, S FL is living on barrowed time. From 1920 to 1960, 13 hurricanes impacted the SE coast of FL while only 3 from 1961 to 2003. In 2004, we had Frances and Jeanne, that came in near Sebastian Inlet, while close, still missed the heavily populated region of Dade and Broward Counties. During the 1920-1960 period, 7 major hurricanes hit S FL while only two, Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992) impacted S FL since then. If the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (CAT 4) hit today, it is estimated that property damages alone with top 90 billion dollars.