Wave in Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Is not unheard to see something develop in June at that part of the basin as we have seen in past seasons.Here is what I see as a strong wave but mainly below 10N latitud.Lets keep an eye on this as shear looks to not be strong in that area.

8:05 AM EDT discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 20W HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER E
ALONG 15W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. RELOCATION IS BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA
INDICATING THE WAVE LOCATION NEAR 15W. A RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 12W-20W

[cycloneye]

[brunota2003]

Will be interesting to see how far west it can go before it "poofs" (or if it even does so). Definitely is way south though, but as June/July progresses, would expect that these waves will start to inch toward being over 10N.

[srainhoutx]

SAL may very well hinder development with this disturbance. Regardless, in a hyper active season that many are expecting it bears watching.

[cycloneye]

Here is a panoramic view of the wave.Is embedded in the ITCZ and below 10N and because of those factors,I dont see it getting better organized.But seeing this on early June is cause for concern as it may signal an active CV season.

[KWT]

It probably won't go poof down that far south, esp with the MDR anomalies meaning temps are pretty much as high as you'd expect for late July by now...

That being said there are probably factors that will hold everything in check for now...this is the first warning shot though and I think we will probably see something from this area in July, esp with the African Wave train being so strong this year.

Actually, this wave has if anything strengthened over water looking at the loop...

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[KWT]

If it holds for another 12-24hrs they may well invest this system, if only because its rather unusual to have a good looking wave quite this early that strengthens over the sea...

[Category 5]

That's damn impressive for June 2nd, and like KWT said it's far enough south to avoid the very hostile conditions (so far) that make June almost completely dead this far east. Right now though it still seems like a long shot.

[IvanSurvivor]

How common is it for a storm to form below 10N? Examples of storms in the past?

[Category 5]

How common is it for a storm to form below 10N? Examples of storms in the past?

Off the top of my head Ivan in 04 comes to mind. Its not common but it does happen.

[KWT]

I wouldn't expect development but I think what it shows is that later in the seasons conditions will be primed for some easterly CV action.

[wx247]

Well, it is something to observe and monitor on the satellite though. I figured that it might have gone poof by now, but so far... not the case. Of course its connections with the ITCZ have helped sustain it I am sure.

[HURAKAN]

Climatology tells you not to expect development but for me, this is just a preview of what is coming!

[cycloneye]

Here is the standard 6 hour intervals pic by NHC of the Eastern Atlantic.

[KWT]

Well, it is something to observe and monitor on the satellite though. I figured that it might have gone poof by now, but so far... not the case. Of course its connections with the ITCZ have helped sustain it I am sure.

Yeah the ITCZ is of course going to help this system, that being said SST's right now that far south would support a system if it came off lifesupport of the ITCZ. Its just whether SAL would be a big issue or not really, I suspect at this time of year it would be a big issue.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the Sal,is to the north of the wave so right now is not a detriment factor.

[bob rulz]

If the storm were to develop though it would likely detach from the ITCZ and move north, and therefore closer to the SAL.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

That's a good looking wave. Only been on Storm2K for two seasons, and this is the earliest Eastern Atlantic caliber wave I've seen fwiw. While I wish no one damage, it is great to be able to follow these waves along again.

[Scorpion]

Wow, we had difficulty getting a wave to not die once it reached water in August last year. Really shows how much better conditions are now.