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AL052210 -- Invest 90L; Caribbean Possibility
Definitions (These are my definitions, and are not from the NHC or anywhere else)
o Invest: Area of interest that the National Hurricane Center and others are watching for possible development into a tropical cyclone. Short for investigation; generally of low pressure areas.
o Wind Shear: Directional wind moving in a direction that hinders cyclonic development in the tropics. Shear takes the tops of clouds off the top of a cyclone.
o Baroclinic strengthening: growth of a cyclone due to differences in temperature
o Cyclogenesis: birth of a cyclone
Sheared invest forms east of the Bahamas; Western Caribbean Sea still of interest….
….Synopsis… An area of low pressure located near 24N68W has been designated Invest 90L. The main story with 90L is that it will be battling with very high shear for at least the next 48 hours. The current shear is out of the west at about 35-40mph, well over limits for any cyclonic strengthening. Shear is currently dropping, but may not do so for long. The invest is also surrounded by relatively dry air with more on the way. With the dry air and shear the forecast for now is grim, but could improve. Sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are marginal for development at 78 degrees.
…Forecast Track… Although a few of the weather forecasting models are forecasting tropical development, I am having a hard time agreeing with this. With shear, dry air, and marginal SST’s this will likely be subtropical for the early parts of its life if it develops. As 90L consolidates into one low level center, which I think that it will do, the forecast track and intensity will become clearer. Right now models are bringing 90L north to north-northwest towards the Carolina coastlines, but without a landfall. With the tornado season still in full swing across the central United States, I expect a cold front to come along before the invest can make landfall. The model consensus is moderate, and I have only moderate confidence in this forecast beyond 2-3 days. Short term forecast track is illustrated in the graphic above.
…Impact…The likely impacts will be marine interferences. The eastern shores of the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas as well as all shores of Bermuda will likely have some rip currents and beach erosion. Depending on how close 90L gets to shore wind may have a small impact, although because of the type of strengthening I expect to occur (Baroclinic), the wind field will be large. I have outlined possible marine impacts in light blue on the graphic above, and although they are on there currently these impact probably will not arrive for a few days.
…Caribbean Interests… I have been watching the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea for possible cyclone development. There is nothing developing at the moment, but numerous models have been developing a low in this area for the next week. I will keep an idea on this area in case anything of interest develops. This area is illustrated in purple above.
Forecast Likelihoods:
Forecast Confidence: 40%
90L Cyclogenesis: 20%
Caribbean development: less than 5%
Meteorology Student Jonathan -- Fact789
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As always, please ask questions of my forecast or comment upon it. Any and all questions and comments will be taken as a constructive educational experience, and are very much welcomed. Thank You!
