NOAA hurricane forecast : 14-23 named storms

[hurricanetrack]

So I am hearing that the NOAA hurricane forecast for tomorrow is not until next week now. Anyone know why?

[Evil Jeremy]

NOAA gave no reason, but it will be unveiled now in DC on the 27th.

[cycloneye]

I have been talking about this at the countdown thread as I posted there a link to an articule by the Sun-Sentinel in Florida about the delay.But still I have not seen any press release by NOAA talking about this.Here is the Newspaper link.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/we ... forecasts/

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't know positively, but I would assume that they postponed because they are in DC for the oil spill hearings.

[Pedro Fernández]

I don't know positively, but I would assume that they postponed because they are in DC for the oil spill hearings.

Humm.................. Could they rising up their numers for the season? Could they be worried?

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know positively, but I would assume that they postponed because they are in DC for the oil spill hearings.

Humm.................. Could they rising up their numers for the season? Could they be worried?

I spoke with the CPC's Mike Halpert this morning. He said the forecasters didn't need any more time to make their predictions; conditions aren't likely to change in the next week. The decision to delay the press conference came from higher up in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He said he was given no reason for the delay.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/weblogs/w ... t-delayed/

[KWT]

To be fair it's pretty obvious they are going above average its just by how much really and what sort of range they are gunning for.

[Frank2]

It's just a delay of a few days, so probably just an administrative issue at the NHC or the Department of Commerce Office of Public Affairs (since both have to coordinate the Press Release and Press Conference) and nothing to worry about, that's for sure...

And per the Sun-Sentinel:

The guess here: NOAA was about to hold a press conference in such a remote location that very few were planning to attend.

so likely the delay is logistical more than anything, and as KWT said, the forecast of a busier season is pretty obvious so nothing likely to be of the "breaking news" category will be mentioned at the press conference...

Frank

[cycloneye]

They released the Central Pacific outlook which calls for a below average season.

NOAA CPAC Outlook

[cycloneye]

Mark,edited the title to add the new date NOAA will release their May outlook.

[bvigal]

I spoke with the CPC's Mike Halpert this morning. He said the forecasters didn't need any more time to make their predictions; conditions aren't likely to change in the next week. The decision to delay the press conference came from higher up in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He said he was given no reason for the delay.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/weblogs/w ... t-delayed/

Clearly, this is a political football, and someone "higher up" wants to make the kick where they can score a field goal! Just wait until next Thursday and see what transpires at the press conference, and elsewhere in DC that day.

[cycloneye]

Here is the press release announcing the press conference next thursday at 10 AM EDT in DC.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/advisories ... tlook.html

[Aquawind]

And why not get some extra hype in Florida with the Forida Conference? Many would agree Floridians need to pay attention..sounds like a smart media move.

[wxman57]

Today's the day. I think they'll say 13-18 named storms with 6-9 hurricanes and 3-5 majors. They tend to be conservative.

[clfenwi]

WOW, just wow:

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

[Trader Ron]

57,

I'm thinking 14-18 Named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 majors.

[cycloneye]

NOAA MAY FORECAST=14-23 NAMED STORMS

WOW!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... _body.html

[Category 5]

14-23? Wow, covering your rears much?

[Trader Ron]

WOW, just wow:

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Downright scary.

[bvigal]

Hmm, well the low end of the numbers doesn't sound too bad, but the high end is sobering! A range of 9 for named storms, range of 7 for hurricanes? That's something new, last year it was 6 and 4, respectively (9-14n.s., 4-7hurrs).