EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[Ivanhater]

It seems this area might be our first real chance of development next week and deserves its own thread. Here are some of the models that are on board.

Euro



GFS



Nogaps

[HURAKAN]

1st post of its kind this year!!! You know the hurricane season is around the corner when you see this.

Usually when a few models have similar outlooks, it BEARS WATCH!

[Cryomaniac]

Over / under on how many different "Bears watching" pictures get used this year?

[KWT]

Yep the 12z models are interesting, this is the first time I believe the ECM has shown development in this area.

Still with sea surface temps obviously warm enough and the MJO on its uptick you csn't totally rule out this area, though I tend to think any development is set to occur in the EPAC side, but by mid June things could become more interesting.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z run of GFS at 168 hours.

[KWT]

Well it is interesting to watch this progress in the models, still a very long way out but given the El nino has totally decayed now and the position the model is developing in it certainly needs to be watched...it'd certainly be a quick start to the season, just what your looking for if you want a 16+ type season.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[xcool22]

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[HURAKAN]

I think this will get really interesting if they keep showing the same 24 or more hours from now. But it won't be surprising to get a storm in the Caribbean at the end of May.

[gatorcane]

Isn't this leaving off where we left off with last year with Ida in the SW Caribbean?

How time flies...

Climatology says no to development but we are getting close to the start of the season and this would be one of the few favorable areas for development in the early part of the season (and probably the only favorable area in the Atlantic in May).

Though the GFS has been wrong many times in long-range tropical cyclone-genesis, I have also been following the GFS pretty closely this winter season and I have seen it predict "el nino"-type lows forming in the GOM and NW Carib way out at 240+ hours. It may not have had the exact location but it got pretty darn close considering how far out it was.

Again, probably picking up a pulse of the wet-phase of the MJO, will await more model runs...

[xcool22]

i think May 23, 2010 storm in Caribbean.imo..

[KWT]

The 0z ECM is going to be rather interesting, if you get both the GFS and the ECM developing a system, then that tends to be a sure fire signal that something at least favorable could end up developing.

[Duddy]

Based on climatology, where can we expect a storm this early in the season to track?

[Macrocane]

Based on climatology, where can we expect a storm this early in the season to track?

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When early storms develop in the Caribbean they tend to track into the GOM or Florida (2007 Barry, 2006 Alberto, 2005 Arlene) but this time would be different because it would develop south of those storms I mentioned so if it tracks northeast it won't impact the GOM or Florida but Cuba or Hispaniola.

[HURAKAN]

Based on climatology, where can we expect a storm this early in the season to track?

[KWT]

ECM still showing a very weak possible system down there, though as I said its not at all impressive and barely shows as a closed ciruclation.

[tolakram]

This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.

[HURAKAN]

GFS - Low appears in 90 hours:

[HURAKAN]

San Juan, PR NWS Office:

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE GFS DEVELOPS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...
ONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST...MAINTAINING A HUMID SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SECOND ONES WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
STAY TUNED.

[KWT]

This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.

Its not too easy to call where if anything will form, usually though at this time of year that sort of development is more likely in the EPAC. That being said both sides are will be in aqn uptick thanks to the MJO and we can't rule out a late May system down where the models are showing it, esp given there is good agreement on at least something being down there...though I have big doubts it is as strong as the GFS expects.