First 2010 Tropical Wave analized by TPC at 5/6/10

[cycloneye]

The 12z analysis by TAFB has a Tropical Wave at 35W,the first one of 2010. It looks like the parade will be longer this year. Does anyone has stats about which year and date was the earliest first Tropical Wave to be introduced?

[cycloneye]

Nothing to open eyebrows here on the ASCAT.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thanks for alerting us cycloneye. I saw that yesterday another poster and you were talking about it some. Interested in knowing too if this is early for the season historically.

[RL3AO]

I think its about normal. I think PK has all the stats on them. You would probably look back at some of his posts from previous years.

[KWT]

Not really that impressive, but of course its May and whilst the SST's are insane, you can't get past other conditions this early!

Looks like its heading for SA anyway!

[cycloneye]

Here is the introduction of this first wave by TPC in the 2:05 PM EDT Discussion.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR
SENEGAL AROUND 02/1200 UTC. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
CONFIRMS PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED LOW-LATITUDE SINCE EMERGING OFF OF
WEST AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND
05/1210 UTC CAPTURED 15-20 KT RETRIEVALS N OF 4N IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO CONFIRMED THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF
THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE WAVE ARE
ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N.

[HURAKAN]

Let the adventure begin!

[Macrocane]

I knew it! I saw it yesterday when it was off Africa and it began to propagate westward. There are like 50 tropical waves every year so obviously not all of them will look impressive.

[cycloneye]

:D I knew it! I saw it yesterday when it was off Africa and it began to propagate westward. There are like 50 tropical waves every year so obviously not all of them will look impressive.

This wave when it reaches the EPAC may get ideal conditions to develop as GFS is progging however,we know GFS has problems on the long range,but hopefully that changes with the June 22nd upgrade.

[Pedro Fernández]

Ok............... This looks pretty interesting......................................

[brunota2003]

Is that mid-level, or high?

[Pedro Fernández]

Is that mid-level, or high?

It is the shear map provided by CIMSS.

[cycloneye]

The Hovmoller diagram shows well the next wave about to emerge Africa,and as I said at the top,the parade is starting now and will be longer than in other years.

[Aquawind]

Poor Mets won't be sleeping much this season..

[HUC]

As usual, here are the frst TWave analysed since 1991:

1991 april 5
1992 may 1
1993 may 4
1994 june16
1995 may 29
1996 may 17
1997 may 16
1998 may 4
1999 may13
2000 may14
2001 april27
2002april28
2003 may23
2004 may 10
2005 may2
2006 april4
2007 may27
2008 may2
2009 may 13.A
As you can see,may is the begining month of tropical activity.The summer is less than two months away!!!

[cycloneye]

As usual, here are the frst TWave analysed since 1991:

1991 april 5
1992 may 1
1993 may 4
1994 june16
1995 may 29
1996 may 17
1997 may 16
1998 may 4
1999 may13
2000 may14
2001 april27
2002april28
2003 may23
2004 may 10
2005 may2
2006 april4
2007 may27
2008 may2
2009 may 13.A
As you can see,may is the begining month of tropical activity.The summer is less than two months away!!!

Thank you for that information.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Wow, even years showing April waves. Shows how much of a novice I am on this.

Might someone post a link explaining/distinguishing upper, mid and lower levels lows, or a graphic. TIA.

[brunota2003]

Is that mid-level, or high?

It is the shear map provided by CIMSS.

Yes...but is that the mid-level or high-level shear map?

[Ptarmigan]

As usual, here are the frst TWave analysed since 1991:

1991 april 5
1992 may 1
1993 may 4
1994 june16
1995 may 29
1996 may 17
1997 may 16
1998 may 4
1999 may13
2000 may14
2001 april27
2002april28
2003 may23
2004 may 10
2005 may2
2006 april4
2007 may27
2008 may2
2009 may 13.A
As you can see,may is the begining month of tropical activity.The summer is less than two months away!!!

Do you have any links for the first tropical wave and total number of them forming? Thanks!

[Macrocane]

And the parade has just really begun:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. ONE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W...A SECOND ONE ALONG
36W...AND A THIRD ONE ALONG 45W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ELEVATED NEAR THESE WAVES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF EACH WAVE AXIS.