Weather Underground's Jeff Masters: Conditions Ripe

[Aquawind]

Weather Underground's Jeff Masters: Conditions ripe for severe hurricane season..

http://www.news-press.com/article/20100 ... ane-season

6:27 P.M. — Another forecaster is predicting a catastrophic hurricane season.


Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, says conditions are in place that occurred in just three other seasons: 2005, 1958 and 1969.


“All three of those years had five major hurricanes,” he told Bloomberg.com. “I am definitely thinking that this is going to be a severe hurricane season.”


Masters said El Niño is fading and rain is keeping dust down in Africa, and sea temperatures in the open Atlantic are nearing record highs.


Stacy Stewart, senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center, confirmed the high water temperatures and the fading El Niño, both of which have been heavily reported in recent months. But he said he hasn’t seen evidence of rain affecting dust in Africa.


AccuWeather.com, citing the same conditions, has predicted 16 to 18 tropical storms in total. But it has said only five of those will be hurricanes, and only two or three of the hurricanes will be major storms, not the five Masters predicted.


Accuweather did make the bold prediction that seven storms will make landfall, but did not say where on the 45,814-mile long U.S. coastline, from Maine to Texas. Florida’s 1,200 mile coastline, from Jacksonville around to Pensacola, accounts for less than 3 percent of that.


In 2009, Accuweather predicted 13 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes. It said four of those, one major, would have U.S. landfalls. Instead, there were 9 named storms, with three becoming hurricanes and two of those major hurricanes. Only two tropical storms had a U.S. landfall.


Last month, the Colorado State University team of William Gray and Philip Klotzbach called for 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes. The team’s forecast for the 2009 season had called for 14, seven and three; instead, the season had nine, three and two.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration makes its prediction May 20.

The historical average: 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes — of at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Of course, even if Weather Underground’s Masters is correct, just because a lot of hurricanes form, and some become powerful, doesn’t matter unless they hit something.


“There’s no way anyone can tell you this far in advance what the steering currents are going to look like,” the hurricane center’s Stewart said.


There were at least five major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. But there also were five major hurricanes in 2008, and none struck Florida.


Of the historic seasons mentioned by Masters, the 1958 season generated 10 named storms. But only one storm struck the U.S. and only as a tropical storm. And the 1969 season brought Camille, one of the deadliest hurricanes ever, which flattened the Mississippi coast, but no hurricanes struck Florida.


The 2005 season generated 27 storms, But only five — less than a fifth — made U.S. landfalls.South Florida was struck by Hurricane Wilma and Katrina was barely a hurricane when it passed through the peninsula. The Panhandle got Hurricane Dennis and Tropical Storm Arlene. Four’s a lot, especially for those who went through Wilma. But that means 23 of the 27 storms that year did NOT hit Florida.

[brunota2003]

Yeah...but 4 of those 5 made landfall as hurricanes...that is the important part.

[cycloneye]

That word catastrophic may sound like we are doomed. I would better use the words very active.

[southerngale]

2005 being an analog year makes my stomach turn. I know an active year is exciting for those who like to track hurricanes, but that excitement can quickly turn to fear and despair when you see something like Rita headed for you. I am still fascinated by hurricanes... I just don't want another one knocking on my door. SE TX needs a loooong break.

Here's to a safe hurricane season for everyone!

[cycloneye]

I see a difference between Dr Masters and NHC senior specialist Stacy Stewart about the rainfall in Africa. Dr Masters says rainfall is keeping the dust down in Africa while Stewart says the following:

Stacy Stewart, senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center, confirmed the high water temperatures and the fading El Niño, both of which have been heavily reported in recent months. But he said he hasn’t seen evidence of rain affecting dust in Africa.

[MississippiHurricane]

Well, only time will tell. All it takes is just one storm. You can try to predict these things all day, but no one really knows. This is why its so important for everyone to be ready just in case and have a plan of action ready before one hits. One of the BIGGEST things you can do is have your evac route planned out and have alternate routes ready. (Sorry I have been gone from s2k for so long but im back )

[Ptarmigan]

Quite frankly, I would not be surprised if this season produces more storms than 2008 or 1995. I hope I am wrong.

[xironman]

Africa looks pretty close to normal for April



http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ ... omaly.html

[wxman57]

I don't think he understood Bastardi's forecast of 16-18 named storms and only 5 hurricanes. That wouldn't make sense at all. I believe Joe was talking about landfalling hurricanes, not total hurricanes. With 16-18 named storms, you'd expect 9-10 hurricanes.

[KWT]

There was some decent falls of rain in March in the W.Sahara which maybe what Jeff Masters is talking about, and the jet was very far south last winter so its probable that they had an above average winter as well...

Whether it makes a huge difference or not to the SAL though I'm not sure.

[Pedro Fernández]

Very interesting posts here... I'm reading you carefully.

Since I don't know too much about SAL, I have read lot of papers about that, and it is not completely clear how the SAL works... Even sometimes, jets attached to SAL maximums, can favour tropical cyclone development. Although dry air could affect its ulterior development.

[OuterBanker]

Wxman. Yes JB was talking about land falls. Seven total with five hurricanes, two or three majors. Per his Feb forecast. He started early in blowing the horn of a very active season.