Will the oil slick shut down the GOM this season?

[MGC]

With the oil slick growing on a daily basis, will enough oil cover the GOM this summer to have a effect on tropical cyclones? If enough oil covers the water will it prevent and or limit evaporation of water vapour? Does anyone know of any studies of such an occurance?. I heard on the radio that the slick might grow to such an extent that the oil will eventually flow all around the eastern GOM and through the FLA Keys and into the Atlantic!......MGC

[RL3AO]

If this is still a problem come August, then a few hurricanes are least of our problems.

[Dionne]

It's frightening. I calculated the pressure at 5000' below sea surface. It's just over 2200 psi.......(correct me if I'm wrong). How in the heck are we going to plug a well with somewhere around 50 million barrels at that depth? Will the wellhead pressure diminish as the well empties? Are we about to kill portions of the GOM? We are such an invasive species.

[KWT]

I think Derek covered that well in the other thread, simply put, no its not going to make any difference to the GoM if a hurricane comes through, because the waves will push the oil out of the way of the path of the system...simply put, I'm sure Derek could explain it better then that!

[jinftl]

If we are still talking about the oil floating around the Gulf in 3 or 4 months, i agree with another poster, a hurricane will be the least of the problems facing the coastline. Entire industries from seafood to tourism could be wiped out this summer long before a hurricane threatens.

[Derek Ortt]

see PNJ.com... only thing it means are high waves with oil crashing onshore


still... nowhere near as bad as a cat3/4 crashing onshore

[cag1953]

The thought of that happening,Derek,just makes me sick to my stomach. I thought Ivan was terrible,but the oil puts it in another catergory altogether.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Ok, I had the numbers correct. Care to comment on the accuracy required by the Relief Well Drill in hitting the original blown out vertical oil well, given that there is 18,000 feet from Gulf floor to the oil reservoir itself? The point of contact with the original well must be done to some degree by mathematical estimations, as there is no direct imaging throughout those 18,000 feet. If they miss the original drilled oil well, will they then have 2 gushers from the reservoir? Certainly we would have 2 man-made holes. Wonder how big this oil reservoir is, anyway?

It saddens me that this drilling was allowed to take place one mile deep in the first place, given the depth in case of an emergency, and secondly that drilling was needed 3x that amount to get to the desired reservoir. All 40 miles from the Gulf shore. Somebody didn't do enough fact checking and plain thinking.

[img]

[WeatherLovingDoc]

"Wonder how big this oil reservoir is, anyway?"

"BP has not said how much oil is beneath the Gulf seabed Deepwater Horizon was tapping, but a company official speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the volume of reserves, confirmed reports that it was tens of millions of barrels – a frightening prospect to many." (Associated Press)

[Derek Ortt]

The thought of that happening,Derek,just makes me sick to my stomach. I thought Ivan was terrible,but the oil puts it in another catergory altogether.

if another Ivan comes, the oil will be the least of the worries

[Jag95]

I'd take another Ivan over a 3-month long, 10's of millions of gallons oil spill any time. A worst case oil-spill will take decades to recover from. Ways of life possibly destroyed for a generation. I've never felt the anxiety that I'm feeling right now. The worst part is that from the way it's looking; a worst case scenario is a real possibility. Hope I'm wrong.

[weatherwindow]

let me be so bold as to speak for all of us in the keys....this scares the hell out of everyone from the charter industry to the marine sanctuary staff...the loop current is not our friend. as of this writing the southeast edge of the slick is about 120mi from the northern edge of the loop current. according to noaa, it is doubtful that the slick will be entrained in the loop in the next 7 days...however, after that all bets are off. the typical nw fetch following each front will eventually put the slick in contact with the loop. even allowing for natural dispersion, if the blowout is not capped quickly we will eventually face oil on the reef tract and beaches of the keys. i believe it to be a near certainty and the only variable will be the extent and depth of the fouling. sorry about the doom and gloom, but the loop current is a fact of life. perhaps an early season tc, recurving over the keys or sfla, could assist in overall dispersion with a northeasterly fetch over the eastern gulf...keeping my fingers crossed.....rich

[ronjon]

I'm not sure that graphic is correct on the relief well. I believe the purpose of the relief well is to reduce the "pressure head" in the oil bearing reservoir by pumping the formation with a new well. This should greatly reduce the flow or completely cease the flow from the original well so that it can be capped. I think we all have to hope that the "coffer dam" or cap they are working on will do the job to stop the leak. It's a tough thing to do to lower a concrete cap and associated piping down 5000 ft to cover the wellhead but its probably their best shot at a temporary solution until the relief well is finished. We are all scared here on the west coast of FL on what a horrible catastrophy this will be for our beaches, fisheries, and ecology.

One thing I find encouraging is despite the strong SE -S winds the last several days, the oil slick has not made much progress northward. In addition, they are using dispersent at 5000 ft now that may mitigate the oil reaching the surface. The other thing is that this oil is "light sweet crude" not the heavy, thick, sulfurous crude of the Exxon Valdez - this may make the oil easier to disperse and evaporate. Let's pray they get it capped soon.

[weatherwindow]

per a conversation with 7th naval district,...dod is considering utilizing a manned dsrv to attempt direct activation of blowout preventer....may be worth a shot

[brunota2003]

Wouldn't ships release oil back in the 1700/1800's to help smooth out the surface on the fringes of low pressure systems? I think I remember reading that, the oil helped keep the waves from getting as large as they possibly could, thus keeping the vessel "safer" in terms of a wave swamping it.

[jinftl]

Consider the size of a storm like Katrina....even if 'oiling' the water could dampen wave height, the size of the area that would need to be coated with oil would be many times larger than the current area of the oil spill. A few ships releasing oil vs the 250 mile diameter of Katrina's hurricane force winds...not even a blip on the radar in terms of relative size.

Such an effort is not even possible....but that's probably a good thing otherwise we could see hundreds of miles of coast have to deal with a surge of oil polluting the coast. It would be akin to cutting off your foot at the ankle to avoid twisting it!

Given all of the shipwrecks and treachery of sea voyages in the 1700s and 1800s, not sure we want to return to maritime practices from 400 years ago!

Wouldn't ships release oil back in the 1700/1800's to help smooth out the surface on the fringes of low pressure systems? I think I remember reading that, the oil helped keep the waves from getting as large as they possibly could, thus keeping the vessel "safer" in terms of a wave swamping it.

[brunota2003]

The oil only worked in the local areas, ie right around the ship (if I remember right). Of course back then, they weren't trying to weaken a storm or anything, they just wanted safe passage and I thought it would be interesting to bring up.

[jinftl]

Totally agree...kudos for thinking outside the box to come up with some potential benefit to the disaster unfolding the Gulf. With the 'green movement' not being around in the 1700s and 1800s, mariners would not have had to contend with the public outcry that would result from trying to dampen surge by use of toxic chemicals to the land and ocean ecosystems. Not to mention the physics of the earth....wave generation is a function of the shape of the ocean floor, size of windfield, etc....we can't draw a straight line from a point 10 miles offshore and say only a 50 feet stretch of ocean would propagate waves that would hit a corresponding 50 foot stretch of land.

The oil only worked in the local areas, ie right around the ship (if I remember right). Of course back then, they weren't trying to weaken a storm or anything, they just wanted safe passage and I thought it would be interesting to bring up.

[brunota2003]

Of course, mariners back then did not know that oil and other products were toxic to the earth.

Edit: Miscommunication, has been cleared up!

[attallaman]

With the oil slick growing on a daily basis, will enough oil cover the GOM this summer to have a effect on tropical cyclones? If enough oil covers the water will it prevent and or limit evaporation of water vapour? Does anyone know of any studies of such an occurance?. I heard on the radio that the slick might grow to such an extent that the oil will eventually flow all around the eastern GOM and through the FLA Keys and into the Atlantic!......MGC

How's the air quality in the Pass today? I managed to get a good whiff of what smells like diesel fuel in my air for the first time early this morning. It kind of reminded me of the first time I went to Pasadena, Texas which back then the locals referred to Pasadena as "Stinkadena" because the air smelled like petrochemicals from all the refineries nearby. It was so strong back then that the smell came through the A.C. in the Rodeway Inn hotel where we were staying.