The 2010 Hurricane Season is going to Stink!

[Aquawind]

Dangggg.. I see no flies in the ointment. All of the data we use is pointing to a very busy season.

What's to say were not going to have another 2005 or even close this year? I think this is the kind of season that our data does not justify the threat. Actually we have a tiny bit of historical data, unreliable models, and even if we have the best observational data coverage the interpretation of that data seems like an art. I just do not see any professional putting out numbers way above normal or even over 20. Certainly not NHC or CO. A few systems over normal seems so conservative when in all honesty we have had almost 3 seasons in one(2005) before. So don't let this cool winter and "above normal" predictions lull you into thinking this hurricane season is no real big deal because.. it actually could be alot worse that our data allows. I think the gut feeling most everyone has is this is looking REAL bad. I guess a real prediction over 20 systems would dang near create hysteria but, in all reality that is what some of these clueless people need and not rely so much on others after the fact.

Many people do not actually properly prepare until it's to late..Make sure you think about budget and options related to a possible evactuation plan now. You can wait on supplies but get your plan details figured out.

I am already feeling bad for those who will be affected and they look to be substantial.

[cycloneye]

Well said Paul. You nailed the part when you say the experts or forecasters may not jump to over 20 because that can create hysteria. As for me,I am preparing from now as I do each year because it doesn't matter how many systems form,if the vast majority turn into fishes then good,but we know that not all will turn to the fishes and as the famous probervial says,it only takes one.

[Plant grower]

Well to add insult to injury here is another updated hurricane forecast by crown weather. I agree this season has the potential to be 20 or more storms. I do believe at the end of this month the numbers will go up again by Dr.Gray and NOAA.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=2113

[KWT]

The simple reason why they won't go for 20 or higher is simply because we can't be sure when the favourable wet phase of the MJO will come along.

For example we could be in the wet phase in periods of the season which aren't quite as busy, for example in July/early August/October whilst the dry spell could slot in at the 'peak' of the season...

Of course the wet/dry phase doesn't mean storms can't/will develop, but obviously if your looking at 20 NS or more, then you need everything to be PERFECT, even 2005 only managed 21-22 systems in the deep tropics (the NE Atlantic is exceptionally rare to get 5-7 storms in the Autumn!) so if the MJO phases don't come in at helpful times, then that can be the difference between 16-17 NS and 19-20 NS I'd have thought....

[HurricaneBill]

What was interesting about 2005 was that despite all the storms, the environment in the deep tropics was pretty much unfavorable the entire season. The only Cape Verde storm was Hurricane Irene, which struggled to develop for a large portion of her track.

[SETXWXLADY]

KWT Good point about the MJO. I like learning something new thanks. I agree this season looks like a big bad stinky one. Perfect adjective for the upcoming 2010 season. The only thing I have a problem with are the analog years many are throwing out there. Not meaning to sound like a broken record but that is one heck of a ridging pattern ( I'm sure that's a technical term ) If that pattern holds on I think we are looking at another 2007 track wise. Maybe 2008. But I think any CV storm is going to have a big problem trying to go out to sea and become a fish. Unfortunately. If the ENSO goes La Nina instead of neutral that changes the tracks apparently farther west and south. I don't know. Just thinking out loud. Does look like it will be bad for someone. The best advice is the one given time and again. Be prepared. EVERYONE!

[KWT]

I'm personally thinking the tracks of 1995 aren't a bad indicator of what could happen, but of course that is totally IMO!

[Pedro Fernández]

I'm personally thinking the tracks of 1995 aren't a bad indicator of what could happen, but of course that is totally IMO!

Hi, KWT.

I do not despise the potential of the NE Atlantic. If the current anomalies persist or increase in that region, I see a good chance that tropical transitions occur on isolated lows (cutoff lows), as occurred in the 2005 season.

In recent years, the NE Atlantic is becoming a good nest of this rare type of storms.

[KWT]

Well living in the UK I have a special love for those NE Atlantic systems that develop, that being said 2005 was a total freak year for that, to get more then 2 systems up there is fairly uncommon in the Autumn, but to get more then 5 really is exceptional.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think another facet of this year's hurricane season will be the growing oil spill. That will be devastating on the coastline, much like a hurricane.
But let us imagine for a moment, what the affect of a hurricane heading into the northern GOM would be this season.
It would destroy any attempts to keep the oil corralled by floating booms and off the coastline.
It would stir up the huge amounts of oil floating in the water table at other levels. (pure, clean, light crude floats, but since this is unrefined, much of it is a little heavier and gloppy, and not necessarily floating. A large oil spill could easily be occurring at the depths as well, especially filling in the already "dead zone" areas under the water that have little or no circulation going on. A hurricane would circulate the water, and then throw it all onshore.
Hurricane winds could easily disperse the once-concentrated oil over a much wider seascape, allowing it to hit many more gulf area beaches than it would have been able to.
When the oil gets caught up in the loop current, and heads towards the keys and our last remaining coral reefs (say goodbye to those! ), and then heads up the east coast, any approaching hurricane within a few months will take that oil towards shore with it, rather than it continuing up the gulf stream into northern waters.

The oil spill happenign now, and over the next few weeks, will be made so much worse by any storm that develops and crosses it, wherever it happens to be at the time.

Hmmm...imagine a nice oil swath getting added to all the debris carried inland duirng a storm surge? Won't that make everythign that much more toxic for residents and fauna alike?

[Aquawind]

Hey KWT,
My impression from reading comments in the past is the MJO's influence wether it be a dry or wet phase is not very reliable when talking about development of tropical systems. Is there a direct correlation to tropical development or intensification? Of course it sounds logical but, I have not seen data saying so either way. Timing is key but, I would assume we can predict the wet phase to enter the ATL basin at some point of the season and if conditions are as favorable as they seem then it would still up the numbers if not during prime time. I don’t recall what they predicted for the 2005 but, I don’t think anyone was even close. MJO data was available then and could be used for in season adjustments. I thought the MJO was fairly easy to forecast being we have these nice graphics to follow along…lol
Part of my point is that professionals are limited by the microscopic time frame of data we have and of course seems like they will always under forecast for a variety of reasons. I am pretty sure most season predictions in the past have been under forecast and I would bet the same will happen this year. Granted it only takes one direct hit but 22 systems versus 11 is a massive error and so is 16 versus 12 percentage wise.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya Treasure! The loop as already expected to push the oil past into the keys and maybe as soon as next week. As far as I am concerned we need to stop the leaking and work on cleaning as much as we can while it is in a concentrated area. After another month or 2 mother nature is going to have to handle the rest of the oil and a hurricane is only going to speed up that process. Unfortunately these beaches are sand and not like the shores in Alaska where you can wipe down each rock and take years doing it.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Actually, the sand beaches are the easiest to clean up.. You just shovel up the oil and haul it away. Its the marshes and mangroves that are near impossible to clean up. But htat is where all the shrimp and baby fishes develop. -as well as where our seabirds nest. it is going to be so sad. already there are dead and dying turtles washing up on shore, as well as hundreds of seabirds coated in oil walking the beaches.

[Aquawind]

The sand does sound easier for cleaning..if anything they just scrape it off and then replentish if needed. The wildlife animals are true victoms alright.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking something like 1996, 1998 or 2003.

[Aquawind]

Just briefling looking at many of the analogs I have read it seems if we have a system or 2 prior to June 15th we have a pretty good chance at surpassing most of the prediction numbers already made and hit or surpass that 20 mark. I don't think we will be waiting until July for the first system this year. I will post more on this later.

[bvigal]

Hi Gang! I got the shivers just reading this thread, even though I'd already seen the predictions issued in April. Crown Weather's May 1 outlook was sure an attention-getter for the Eastern Caribbean. It certainly does appear as if the Atlantic basin, in total, can expect an above-average season. Though I'm not ready to panic just yet, it's clear the "watching" will keep us busy. As Luis so wisely reminded us, "it only takes one". I look forward to NHC's outlook later this month.

[cycloneye]

Hi Gang! I got the shivers just reading this thread, even though I'd already seen the predictions issued in April. Crown Weather's May 1 outlook was sure an attention-getter for the Eastern Caribbean. It certainly does appear as if the Atlantic basin, in total, can expect an above-average season. Though I'm not ready to panic just yet, it's clear the "watching" will keep us busy. As Luis so wisely reminded us, "it only takes one". I look forward to NHC's outlook later this month.

Welcome back to Storm2k my friend. We have a thread for the Caribbean and Central America area at the U.S and Caribbean forum where you can stop by and post what is going on where you are.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&p=1980040#p1980040

[lonelymike]

I don't think anyone should panic. Just be prepared and have a plan and a lot of faith! This is part of living on the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts.

Course living 80 miles inland helps too