Is New York due for a Hurricane?

[Kingarabian]

I read somewhere that every 70 years New York gets hit by a 'Cane. Last one to hit was in 1938.

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38h ... uture.html.

Since at the Enso updates thread, it looks like the Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active then last years.

Updated: 10/30/12

I made this thread 2 years ago wondering if New York would ever get hit by a Hurricane. A lot of people on here warned if a Hurricane did hit New York, it would be pretty darn bad.

Hurricane Sandy hit New York on October 28th, 2012. The damage done has yet to be seen.

[BigA]

I don't think the concept of being "due" for a hurricane is a valid one. The probability of a storm striking any given region is not increased by the lack of strikes from past years.

That said, this season is widely expected to be active, but I haven't seen any indications that the northeast will be any more at risk than in other seasons with comparable levels of activity.

It certainly has been a long time since a hurricane has directly affected the Northeast. I think the last hurricane to make landfall north of the North Carolina-Virginia border was Hurricane Bob in 1991.

[Blown Away]

By August we may be at or near La Nina conditions. La Nina will bring higher storm #'s and combine that with lower Atlantic pressures and a weaker Bermuda High, we may see more recurves in the 60-70W region. This will allow many storms to pass near the NE CONUS which increases the odds of a NE CONUS strike. Not scientific, JMHO.

[KWT]

Wouldn't surprise me if we did get a couple of close shaves at least for the NE, whether or not we see an actual landfall is anyones guess however.

[Derek Ortt]

NYC was NOT hit by the 1938 hurricane

the last NYC hurricane was 1893

The last LI hurricane was 1985

[CourierPR]

By August we may be at or near La Nina conditions. La Nina will bring higher storm #'s and combine that with lower Atlantic pressures and a weaker Bermuda High, we may see more recurves in the 60-70W region. This will allow many storms to pass near the NE CONUS which increases the odds of a NE CONUS strike. Not scientific, JMHO.

...and it's a given that the Bermuda high will be a weak one in August?

[CourierPR]

Those of us who live along the Atlantic or Gulf coast should prepare now as if we were due for a direct hit this season. It only takes one strike to make your season a bad one. Get ready now!

[Aquawind]

I am glad we don't have seasonal talk about how this year the super volcano in Yellowstone is 50 million years overdue..lol Well I suppose someone is fixated on it..

Every Year east coasters should be prepared like everyone else in the basin should be.

[Dionne]

NYC was NOT hit by the 1938 hurricane

the last NYC hurricane was 1893

The last LI hurricane was 1985

The 1938 hurricane, which made landfall in Suffolk County, produced winds in Manhattan to 75 mph. The East River flowed inland 3 blocks. The entire city lost power.

Hurricane Gloria in 1985 made landfall also in Suffolk county......Long Beach.....which is about 14 nautical miles from the NYC line. Battery Park had a storm surge (lower Manhattan) of more than 8 feet.

History is to picky about where the lines are drawn.

[MGC]

Having never been to NYC, how high will the surge have to get to flood the subways?......MGC

[Dionne]

Having never been to NYC, how high will the surge have to get to flood the subways?......MGC

Not a clue. Some areas are over 200' above sea level. Manhattan itself is a big chunk of bedrock. I seldom ride the trains. Although since the completion of the mono-rail from JFK to Penn Station/LIRR.....(Long Island Rail Road).....it's much easier than driving or taking a limo. It would take a hurricane landfall in NY Harbor to flood Manhattan....which is unlikely.....Jersey would get all the water.

[jinftl]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but a Cat 3 or higher has not hit NYC directly in recorded history (at least from 1800 through modern times). Does that make NYC overdue for such an event....or does that make such an event highly unlikely? It could happen....but if something hasn't happened in a century or two or more, i think 'unlikely' is a better description than 'overdue'.

[Derek Ortt]

we had better hope a cat 3 never makes a direct hit on the city

it would be larger in size than Katrina and the area is far more surge prone

the entire beach area and well inland would be leveled by the highest surge in US history. Not to mention that the structures cannot withstand the high winds there

[hurricanetrack]

A great FICTION book on this subject is Landstrike by Ken Bass: http://www.landstrike.com

Some of it is based on his research and the aftermath is probably spot on. I would not want to intercept a hurricane in NYC.

[Kingarabian]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel


I think thats the latest Hurricane to hit close to the high east coast.

[KWT]

A great FICTION book on this subject is Landstrike by Ken Bass: http://www.landstrike.com

Some of it is based on his research and the aftermath is probably spot on. I would not want to intercept a hurricane in NYC.

I may well have to hunt that book down, sounds really interesting....

Still the worst case really has to be a cat-3 in to New York, I wonder with Baroclinic help just how powerful a system could be into New York in theory?

[Ptarmigan]

we had better hope a cat 3 never makes a direct hit on the city

it would be larger in size than Katrina and the area is far more surge prone

the entire beach area and well inland would be leveled by the highest surge in US history. Not to mention that the structures cannot withstand the high winds there

Hurricanes tend to be larger when they go pass the Carolinas. I read that JFK would have 20 foot storm surge. A hurricane hitting New York would have a really devastating impact on the economy, which is something we don't need right now.

[jinftl]

Surge map for NYC...areas around Jamaica Bay and parts of Staten Island have the greatest land area that is at risk for surge flooding. Most of Manhattan wouldn't go under even with a Cat 3...but that Cat 3 surge line is over part of the Financial District.

[Derek Ortt]

those surge maps likely are way off

In 1893, the last direct NYC hit, Hog Island was obliterated. No trace of the island was found for 100 years.

That was a cat 1 hurricane

[StormingB81]

I know this topic comes up every year. but like people before said. Just be prepared. Thats all that matters. Dont worry about if but when and be prepared.