Perfect ball of convection in BOC

[dixiebreeze]

If this was later in the year, this forum would be very busy!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[tolakram]

I was looking at that and going to post too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Looks to be a trough of low pressure, but the water temps are too cold.

[JonathanBelles]

I was saying last night in the chatroom that the GOM is bursting with moisture. Wont be long now until our humidity/rainy season begins, just waiting on SST's. There is a 10-40% chance of rain everyday until next Tuesday, something not seen too often in the dry season.

[brunota2003]

Look at all the convection in the western Car. too, in association with that low

[Recurve]

It's an upper tough that will move rapidly though, still a winter/spring sort of progression from what the discussions say. Plenty of time to go before that area is producing surface disturbances on its own.

[KW forecast discussion clip]
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AS SOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT
THERE...MOST LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT MAY FORM IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS POTENTIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MAKE IT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA BY THIS EVENING. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THERE IS
ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER MAY
KEEP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. BE THAT AS IT MAY...
POPS WILL BE KEPT BELOW ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER.

[Frank2]

It's since almost dissipated but a similar flare-up of convection is now crossing Cuba:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

it does have that "pre-season" look to it, so it won't be long now...

Frank

[xironman]

If it was in season and there was not huge upper level shear this image would be pretty interesting

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

We werer commenting ourselves yesterday at how the moisture that went through the area was associated with a low pressure that had a nice little rotation to it, and wasn't at the tale end of any front. Had the water been warmer, it very well could have been our first system of the year. We certainly got a deluge from that little rotation!

I was wondering though want the core was...warm or cold? haha -but it did remind us that we are supposed to have an active upcoming season!