Any negative conditions for 2010?

[blp]

The checklist for 2010 is for quite favorable conditions.

Record warm SST's in MDR: Check
Weakening El Nino to Neutral: Check
Lower Predicted Sea Surface Pressures in MDR: Check
Lower Predicted Wind Shear in MDR: Check
Probable Cold Phase PDO: Check
Negative NAO: Check

With all the talk about the positive environmental conditions does anybody have any ideas on what might be negative for 2010? Possibly the strength of the SAL outbreaks this year. Does anyone have any predictions on the rainy season in the Sahel? I know one negative to 2005 was the strong SAL outbreak that occurred during the heart of the season and led to most systems forming west of 55W, which made things worse for landfalls.

[Plant grower]

Well from everything that I see and hear no. Even the SAL is no where to be found this time of year. From the way it looks the best thing we can all do is buckle up and be ready for a watery ride. The only thing that could help is some fish storms, but that will not even stop the home grown hurricanes that will be in favor this season.

[brunota2003]

One thing to watch is to see how long it takes for the ITCZ to move to 10N

[KWT]

I'm not sure the ITCZ isn't really a big deal early in the season, it'll obviously be more important when the CV season kicks in but it will be in a position I'd have thought to get things going once we get to August no matter what.

[tolakram]

I'm going to mention Volcanic activity as a possible negative, depending on how bad the Iceland eruption gets.

[brunota2003]

Dont forget though that a lot of homegrown storms start from tropical waves, so the itcz position can be important.

Another thing, for homegrown, is how many cold fronts do we get, and where do they stall out at?

[yzerfan]

Could the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland knock down temperatures if it keeps errupting?

[HURAKAN]

The Icelandic volcano is unlikely to have an effect. You need something a lot bigger.

[cycloneye]

The Icelandic volcano is unlikely to have an effect. You need something a lot bigger.

Exactly,like a Pinatubo type in 1981 that cooled the earth.

[Derek Ortt]

you'd probably need a Tambora type eruption

[KWT]

Yeah plus I'm not sure it'd have enough time anyway given the jets are all quite far north at this time of year and the amount of ash this one is spewing out would be very sparse in concentration by the time it finds its way into the tropics I'd have guessed.

[tolakram]

I think it's safer to say that we just don't know. I've been reading how high lat volcanos don't usually effect weather, but there are exceptions depending on the length of the eruption. Not a lot of data to go on. When was the last time much of Europe's airspace was closed due to a volcano?

[cycloneye]

Now,if the Soufriere Volcano in the Leeward Islands blows into a big eruption during the summer,that is a different animal that can affect the Western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea to cool them.That cooling occured last Febuary when the volcano made a big eruption.