April TSR Outlook Released

[srainhoutx]

Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea
Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University College London), UK

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2010 anticipates
an active hurricane season to more certainty than forecast in December 2009. Based on current and
projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be
about 60% above the 1950-2009 norm in 2010. There is a high (77%) likelihood that activity will be in
the top one-third of years historically. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2010
and employs data through to the end of March 2010. TSR’s two predictors are the forecast July-
September 2010 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast
August-September 2010 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. At present TSR
anticipates both predictors having a moderate enhancing effect on activity.

[Macrocane]

Their April forecast last year called for a very active season, then in their June prediction they lowered the numbers and made a more accurate forecast. I think that this time there are more signs that this hurricane season will be an active one so maybe this April forecast will verify well.

[cycloneye]

The part where they talk about the MDR is the one I dont like a bit. However despite how many systems form,it only takes one to make havoc to a place so lets be prepared.

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Caribbean Lesser Antilles Landfalling Numbers in 2010

ACE Intense Tropical

Index Hurricanes Hurricanes Storms

TSR Forecast (±FE) 2010 2.3 (± 2.0) 0.4 (±0.4) 0.7 (±0.6) 1.6 (±0.9)

60yr Climate Norm (±SD) 1950-2009 1.3 (±2.0) 0.2 (±0.5) 0.5 (±0.7) 1.1 (±1.0)

Forecast Skill at this Lead 1980-2009 0% 7% 12% 0%

Key: ACE Index = Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index = Sum of the Squares of hourly Maximum
Sustained Wind Speeds (in units of knots) for all Systems while they are at least
Tropical Storm Strength and within the boxed region (10oN-18oN,60oW-63oW)

(reduced by a factor of 6). ACE Unit = x104 knots2.
Landfall Strike Category = Maximum 1 Minute Sustained Wind of Storm Directly Striking Land.
Lesser Antilles = Island Arc from Anguilla to Trinidad Inclusive.