JB's hurricane hype part 3.

[OuterBanker]

OK, so maybe it's not hype. But CSU's April 7 release was the same as his Feb release. Can't blame him for being proud. Plus, I think that he is genuine is his concern. JB does go out on a limb by calling landfalls, something no one else will do.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/216701 ... closer.asp

One other thing, if you read the landfall probability chart link from CSU you will notice that most zones are up 50 % in landfall probability percentages as compared to the norm. And you will notice that landfall probabilities for any one county is fairly small. Unless you live in Monroe Co Fl. A whopping 33.2% for a named storm landfall. That's higher than several zones. May as well board up now.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[Blown Away]

Joe suggested many long trackers and if La Nina kicks in there would be more southerly tracks.

[wxman57]

The only change I see is that now Dr. Klotzbach agrees with Joe's forecast from earlier this year. All parameters look favorable for development this year. I can't find one negative for development.

[Plant grower]

From what I can see JB speaks the truth we are in for a monster season and nothing has changed so far.

[srainhoutx]

The only change I see is that now Dr. Klotzbach agrees with Joe's forecast from earlier this year. All parameters look favorable for development this year. I can't find one negative for development.

Still liking the 1995 analog?

[weatherwindow]

OK, so maybe it's not hype. But CSU's April 7 release was the same as his Feb release. Can't blame him for being proud. Plus, I think that he is genuine is his concern. JB does go out on a limb by calling landfalls, something no one else will do.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/216701 ... closer.asp

One other thing, if you read the landfall probability chart link from CSU you will notice that most zones are up 50 % in landfall probability percentages as compared to the norm. And you will notice that landfall probabilities for any one county is fairly small. Unless you live in Monroe Co Fl. A whopping 33.2% for a named storm landfall. That's higher than several zones. May as well board up now.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

looking at those keys numbers, never fails to inspire wonder....over the past 40 years, our luck is beyond anyones expectations....sort of the textbook definition of overdue.....and i, for one, believe that most veteran residents understand that all of those, as yet unnecessary, evacs could, eventually, be lifesaving......rich

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I hear that. Here in Tampa Bay, many are so oblivious to the potential storm destruction that could come down on this area. People say how they went through this storm or that storm with no problems, how they've never flooded, blah blah blah. -and I have to remind them that practically nobody alive today who has lived here all their life can even say they experienced a major hurricane! We haven't had one here since 1926! Everything else they try to describe were near misses or else less than a Cat 3. -lots of tropical storms, but very few have any recollection of even a hurricane coming our way. Donna is what most seem to refer to as the "bad one" or else the storms of 2005, all of which traversed the state before even affecting us. (we were on the weak side of tiny Charlie, so other than Polk County, our local area had very little effects from him.)

I have to re-up my boat insurance next month. Based on all being said so far, I have an inkling that I will try to find a policy with minimal out of pocket deductible in the event of a wind storm.

[Recurve]

sigh. The numbers for Monroe County (Florida Keys) are always so...thought provoking. Statistically it looks like a near certainty that we'll be hit hard in any given season. And yet I've lived here since 1986 and suffered practically no home damage -- just some branches down, though I did have boat damage from Wilma.

The new U.S. 1 bridge over Jewfish Creek means no more drawbridge, and about half of the 18-Mile Stretch widening has been completed, with a center divider and large shoulder that can be used as an extra evacuation lane. But the northern half of the road is still under construction.

The Keys have actually experienced a population drop over the last decade, down roughly 10,000 to around 75,000 permanent residents. During the height of the hurricane season, some condos and neighborhoods are like ghost towns.