Dr Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Gray April Outlook=15/8/4

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2010.pdf

Here is the abstract.

ABSTRACT
Information obtained through March 2010 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2010 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 75 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 160 percent of the long-term average. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our early December forecast.
This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. The influence of El Niño conditions is implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor.
We expect current moderate El Niño conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season. The predicted weakening of El Niño conditions combined with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary reasons why we are increasing our forecast. We believe that these two features will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, you beat me my a minute lol. Anyways, I thought he would make a bigger increase. I was thinking he would go as high as 17. Doesn't he normally use a number range for his April forecasts?

[HURAKAN]

Not surprised. Pretty much like it was expected

[cycloneye]

Ok, you beat me my a minute lol. Anyways, I thought he would make a bigger increase. I was thinking he would go as high as 17. Doesn't he normally use a number range for his April forecasts?

Yes.

[cycloneye]

Interesting about the landfall probabilities,all are above average.

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)
Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
1) 58% (average for last century is 42%)

[cycloneye]

Analog years

1958
1966
1969
1998
2005


I like 1998 as analog but without experiencing a direct landfall like what Georges did in PR.

1958



1966



1969



1998



2005

[cycloneye]

The mainstream media spreads the news.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36217599/ns/weather/

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6 ... me=topNews

[JtSmarts]

Wow, just as expected. I may need to bump up my own numbers slightly.

[hurricanetrack]

I think that this leaves room for an upward adjustment in their next update. Dr. K has said as of late that there is not a strong correlation between the warm SSTs in the MDR now (April) and a more active season later on. However, if the anomalies hang on like this and we get to late May or so, I would assume that he could easily tack on another couple in each category. We'll see. Time to start looking for some pattern recognition to figure out when the first burst will arrive. Any good MJO people out there? Post your bets now!

[Ivanhater]

Wow, does not bode well for the Northern Gulf coast on many of those analog years

[Javlin]

Wow, does not bode well for the Northern Gulf coast on many of those analog years

I hear ya.I was watching the movie "Hurricane"on the WC the other night about Camille and a flood of memories came back and just a bad feeling.Anyway with the winter that we have had with only snow flurries one day does often lend itself to a more active season in relation to steering currents me thinks.

[KWT]

I think that this leaves room for an upward adjustment in their next update. Dr. K has said as of late that there is not a strong correlation between the warm SSTs in the MDR now (April) and a more active season later on. However, if the anomalies hang on like this and we get to late May or so, I would assume that he could easily tack on another couple in each category. We'll see. Time to start looking for some pattern recognition to figure out when the first burst will arrive. Any good MJO people out there? Post your bets now!

Without a doubt there is roon for upward movement, at the moment I think conditions are about as condusive as could be. EVen if the SST anomalies drop away somewhat we are still likely to be above average...

I think a 16-18 type season is very possible....the only thing that could prevent this is the El Nino holding for the early summer.

[Blown Away]

Analog years
1958
1966
1969
1998
2005

All but 1966 had a Cat 5 storm and anytime 1969 and 2005 are analog years, that is scary.

[Cookie]

sorry if this is stupid but what dose analog mean?

[cycloneye]

sorry if this is stupid but what dose analog mean?

Dont feel bad asking any question as all are valid ones and the answers may help other members who may not know.

Analog means years that may be the same as 2010 in terms of the patterns and numbers.

[Cookie]

sorry if this is stupid but what dose analog mean?

Dont feel bad asking any question as all are valid ones and the answers may help other members who may not know.

Analog means years that may be the same as 2010 in terms of the patterns and numbers.

ahh right thanks for clearing that up

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is a little good news. At least the Gulf waters are below average. Hopefully it will last and keep any storms intensity down some.

[RL3AO]

There is a little good news. At least the Gulf waters are below average. Hopefully it will last and keep any storms intensity down some.

I'm betting the GOM will be back to average or above average by the end of April. Just get a bit of ridging over the SE and the GOM temps will shoot up.

[Derek Ortt]

so they are predicting an average season

[wxman57]

so they are predicting an average season

Significantly above average, Derek.