Which ones will be the big ones for 2010?

[AnnularCane]

I'm seeing this discussed in the numbers poll, and thought it would be better to have a separate thread on this. So what do you think? Oh, and the names:

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter


I might just have 2008 on the brain or something, but I'm thinking the G and I storms, Gaston and Igor, will be the big ones. There may very well be more than just two big ones, of course, but those are the ones that are standing out for me.

(Of course, based on my skill in predicting this kind of thing, they'll probably just be naked swirls. )

[Macrocane]

I think that Gaston and Igor will be big ones too, and I'm not talking about US only they could be big ones for the Caribbean, Central America or Mexico. I also have a bad feeling about Fiona and Mathew. Since 2001 five "I" names have retired: Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan and Ike maybe that's why I chose Igor. I don't know why I picked the other ones it's just a feeling.

On 2008 I thought that Nana was going to be the big one but at the end it was the less important storm of the season, so I could be very worng about them

[cycloneye]

Danielle,Fiona,Igor and Julia jump to me as the big ones.

[windycity]

Gaston!

[jinftl]

I am a sucker for storm names that just seem destined to make great news headlines....so for that reason, I expect that the following storms will be the newsmakers this upcoming season....because headlines like these are just too media-ready to go unused in this day and age:

Colin on Collins Ave., Miami Beach (with accompanying photos)

Earl’s Earl-y Season Threat

Fiona’s Florida Fury (never underestimate the power of alliteration) or
Fiona Rocks the Big Apple (the storm named Fiona, not the singer Fiona Apple)

Gaston blastin’ on shore

Karl “marks” his spot… (Fox News would jump on this one no doubt)

Scary Shary (landfall around Halloween)

Yes Virginie, there is a hurricane in December

[JtSmarts]

I've been thinking about this lately and Colin, Fiona, Gaston, Igor and Julia seem like the menacing ones.

[vbhoutex]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

[jinftl]

Vbhoutex...ouch....if this pans out then 2010 will be the sequel to the 2004 Florida assault.....you have 3 tropical storms, 1 Cat 2, and 1 Cat 3 impacting the state!

Would Danielle or Gaston do the most $ damage? We saw with Wilma that sustained cat 1/isolated sustained cat 2 winds across the bulk of the 6 million residents of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach county did damage up to an estimated $20 billion. It would depend if sustained Cat 1 conditions would extend north of Miami. Then again, a Cat 2 hitting Tampa Bay at the worst possible angle and at high tide could cause a surge nightmare....

[Ad Novoxium]

Earl, Karl, Otto, and I get a REALLY bad feeling from "Richard".

[KWT]

I think the newboy Colin will be a biggie, as will Julia, however I think its going to be the type of season where a good 4-5 of these may not be on the list next time round..

[Cookie]

Earl, Karl, Otto, and I get a REALLY bad feeling from "Richard".

charming, I find that really offencive what have I ever done to you?!

[srainhoutx]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

Goodness David. That is some play by play. Karl and Nicole have my attention. I suspect that we will see a least 2 long tracking CV cyclones this season.

[Jinkers]

Igor, the 'I' storms have usually been the big ones

[vbhoutex]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

Goodness David. That is some play by play. Karl and Nicole have my attention. I suspect that we will see a least 2 long tracking CV cyclones this season.

I guess I was bored. I do try to follow my numbers prediction when I do this. I need to go back and check that. Still getting vibes I don't like about this season. AT LEAST 2 long trackers if not more.

[OuterBanker]

I can see it now, on how to pronounce Igor.

Will it be E-gore like in Frankenstein?

Or will it be I-gore like in Young Frankenstein?

Hint: It helps if you're old and have a rather warped since of humor.

Geeze, where do they come up with these names?

[StormClouds63]

Danielle.

Igor is way too obvious. However, so was Ivan (as in Ivan the Terrible) in 2004, and it turned out to be pretty darn "terrible."

[JtSmarts]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

Wow! I tried to do a whole season preview like this but I couldn't keep it up.

I did however for my "BIG" ones have Colin as a Cat 2 into Extreme South FL/ Cat 1 in Panhandle, Fiona as a humberto sized Cat 3 into New Orleans, Gaston as a Cat 2 in PR, Igor as a Cat 4 into the Yucatan and Julia as a Large Cat 2 right into Atlantic City then the NE.

[southerngale]

Dang, David. If your predictions pan out, I'll be following you to the store on lottery night. I'll use some of my winnings toward hurricane disaster relief.

[Ptarmigan]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

I would not be surprised if some of them were true.

[vbhoutex]

Alex-June 13th-GOM TS -60 mph into FL panhandle
Bonnie-1st Hurricane of the season. Late June/early July- forms just East of the Leewards and moves into Carribean as weak CAT1 and is torn apart bu shear before 2nd landfall in CA as TD
Colin-forms just N of PR heads WNW then NW with the first landfall in Georgia as a strong TS after gaining CAT1 status.
Danielle-1st biggie of the season-Long tracker from the ATL, passes just N of the Islands and slams the Keys and S FL as a CAT3. Major infrastructure damage throughout the Keys. Winds in Miami sustained Cat 1 with 10" of rain. Once in the GOM she continues West across the entire GOM and slams Northern Mexico as a CAT4. mid July
Earl-An East Coaster-Forms in mid-ATL passes just N of the Islands as a CAT2 and heads NW towards an apparent SC/NC landfall while gaining CAT5 status for 36 hours. Passes 100 miles E of Hatteras on way to landfall in S NJ as a low end CAT2. Rains 5"-7". Late July/Early August.
Fiona-TS in GOM into central TX coast near Rockport with 60 mph winds and rains of 20"+ near landfall and rains up to 12" in SE TX causing major flooding. 2nd week of August.
Gaston-Forms 200 mi East of the southern Caribbean islands quickly gaining CAT2 status before passing through the islands. Continues to gain strength as it heads WNW across the Caribbean and hits Jamaica as a CAT4 before crossing Cuba losing strength to CAT1 and into the GOM and eventual landfall as a low end CAT2 in the Tampa Bay area. Crosses back over FL and into the ATL and heads NE away from land. 3rd week of August.
Hermine-Forms in the NW Caribbean heads through the Yucatan channel as a TS and heads straight North into the panhandle of FL landfalling in the big bend area as a strong TS. Soon after Gaston so upwelling has brought up a lot of cooler water which inhibits intensification.
Igor-ATL fish storm. Never organizes well and many wonder if it ever was a CAT1. final analysis proves it was. 1st week of September.
Julia-Forms just N of the Bahamas. Head NNW as it gains strength to CAT2. Crosses NC 30 miles West of Cape Hatteras and heads NNE towards NE and skirts Cape Cod as it transitions to ET storm with 70 mph winds. 2nd week of September.
Karl-A long track CV storm which becomes a TD 300 mi. West of Africa. 2 days later Karl becomes a hurricane. As he approaches the Northern islands as a CAT4 he begins a turn towards the NW that takes him just 80 miles NE of the islands. The turn continues and Karl becomes a fish storm. 3rd week of September.
Lisa-forms in the BOC and heads N as a TS. reaches CAT1 status as she approaches the N Gulf Coast. An early season front takes Lisa on a trip along the N Gulf Coast starting 100 miles E of Corpus Christi and turns her East so she passes just S of the MR mouth. Lisa landfalls on the Northern portion of the FL peninsula as a 50 mph TS and crosses into the ATL near St. Augustine and heads out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of October.
Matthew-Forms in the Central Caribbean and heads West into Central America. A surprisingly dry storm. CAT1 at landfall. 3rd week of October.
Nicole-forms on a cold front just off the East Coast of Georgia. Cuts off from the front and meanders out to sea and dissipates. 1st week of November.

I would not be surprised if some of them were true.

When I have done this in the past some have been eerily close to reality. Dates may have been different, but the major details were close with a few. Thankfully none of the "doom" prognostications have come to fruition.
I don't just pull this out of the air. I do try to use some sense of the patterns setting up, 50+ years of watching the tropics and timing of certain types of TC's based on what part of the season it is. This is by no means anywhere near a "forecast" but is based on what I stated above and even some "gut"(mine is substantial!!LOL!) feelings. This probably took me at least an hour to do, so it wasn't just thrown together either. Let's see what some others come up with.