WMO Hurricane Committee meets in Bermuda

[Chacor]

The WMO RA IV Hurricane Committee is set to meet in Bermuda next week, beginning on Monday. The various countries involved have started releasing and uploading their documents to be presented at the meetings:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/M ... Index.html

Meteo France report (DOC)
Mexico report (DOC)
US NOAA report (DOC)
Bermuda report (DOC)
Environment Canada report (DOC)

It appears that the NOAA has suggested replacing the Greek alphabet list (Item 4) should a main namelist ever run out, but this was rejected (but will be discussed at the main meeting anyway):

However, if the primary name list is exhausted, as it was in 2005, NHC ceases the simple and well understood naming protocol and resorts to use of the less understood and inconsistent Greek Alphabet as the backup list. Feedback received from the general public, media and EM community about the practice of using the Greek Alphabet for naming tropical cyclones was generally unfavorable with comments such as “ludicrous,” “idiotic” to “ridiculous.”

The use of the Greek Alphabet as a backup list to the primary list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names has several disadvantages:

● Generally unknown and confusing to the public.
● Inconsistent with the standard naming convention used for tropical cyclones.
● If a Greek letter has to be retired, it cannot be replaced.
● Defeats the purpose of using commonly known, short distinctive names understood by
the public and media (ex: The Greek Alphabet jumps from a “B” storm to a “G” storm
then back to a “D” storm. If you expect an “F” storm instead you will jump to “Z”).

RECOMMENDATION: A logical solution to this dilemma is to develop a secondary name list, utilizing conventions of the primary name list, that could be placed into service if the primary Atlantic Cyclone name list is exhausted. Named storms from the secondary or alternate list that require retirement could easily be replenished based on recommendations from the WMO.

ACTION: NHC did not accepted but will bring forward to IHC and WMO RA-IV meeting.

[somethingfunny]

“ludicrous,” “idiotic” ... “ridiculous.”

Okay, which one of you sent these e-mails? I can think of about a dozen regulars here.

[Chacor]

Interestingly, in the Meteo France report, they appear to take issue with the NHC's and RA IV's definition of Grace as a tropical cyclone:

Grace has formed in the beginning of October near the 40th parallel north (around 20-25° ouest, north-east of the Azores islands) from a phasing between an old frontal system and an upper level forcing. This mechanism of cyclogenesis has not to be compared to tropical cyclogenesis and is very common for mid-lattitude disturbance.

The fact that the system generates deep convection and wind force above 50 kts around a center that shows an eye-like structure is not enough for this storm to be considered a tropical cyclone; even if it shows some sign of warm core, that is again usual for autumnal mid-lattitude cyclogenesis over the ocean (and also in Mediterranean see), when the ocean is much warmer than the air mass involved in the low pressure area.

Above this meteorological fact, we must not forget that the number of tropical cyclones during a season is a number on which people focus more and more with climate change (even if there is better mean to qualify and quatify the activity), specially when we have to deal with the problematic of “more cyclone or not with global warming”. What if a cyclogenesis like grace’s one after the 1st of December?

So, this hurricane season shows us that, once again, it is important to stick and perhaps to be clearer with the definition of a tropical cyclone for the 2 reasons mentioned in this document

(Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation about a well defined centre.)

-if the term “non frontal” is not enough to make a difference between tropical mechanism and mid-latitude mechanism with upper level forcing we have to think to be more precise.

[HURAKAN]

To the basic understanding, if it's non-frontal, has organized convection and a warm core, then it's a tropical cyclone. Doesn't matter if it forms near Cuba or near the Azores. I think the NHC did the correct thing in naming Grace.

About the Greek names, how likely are we to use it every season? There, you know the answer!

We have more significant problems like better communicating with the public, educating the public about hurricane hazards, developing better intensity forecasting models, better track forecasting models, etc. Don't waste valuable time and money to see if the Greek naming is right or wrong. Nothing went haywire in 2005 when we had to use the Greek names.

[Chacor]

I think MF's real argument is what constitutes a "non-frontal" system.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

We have more significant problems like better communicating with the public, educating the public about hurricane hazards, developing better intensity forecasting models, better track forecasting models, etc. Don't waste valuable time and money to see if the Greek naming is right or wrong. Nothing went haywire in 2005 when we had to use the Greek names.

I would agree this is a very small issue, but I really don't see how this proposal "wastes valuable time and money." I don't see any request for a Gallup poll or anything similar that would cost them any substantial amount of funds. Coming up with a seventh list of personal names to use instead of the Greek alphabet isn't likely to take a huge amount of time and effort.

[Macrocane]

I don't think there's any problem with the greek alphabet list, it has been only used once and as some of you said, it worked well. And about Grace, I also think that they did well naming it, it wasn't frontal when they named it so what's the problem, maybe it didn't formed as a typical tropical or subtropical cyclone but it was warm-core, non-frontal with organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation about a well defined centre, although I agree, what would've happened if it has formed off season? sometimes the NHC lack consistency.

[HURAKAN]

We have more significant problems like better communicating with the public, educating the public about hurricane hazards, developing better intensity forecasting models, better track forecasting models, etc. Don't waste valuable time and money to see if the Greek naming is right or wrong. Nothing went haywire in 2005 when we had to use the Greek names.

I would agree this is a very small issue, but I really don't see how this proposal "wastes valuable time and money." I don't see any request for a Gallup poll or anything similar that would cost them any substantial amount of funds. Coming up with a seventh list of personal names to use instead of the Greek alphabet isn't likely to take a huge amount of time and effort.

Why would spend time and money creating a 7th list when you know you may use it once every 60 years or so? The Greek letters are fine!

2005 was an anomaly, not the norm.

[HURAKAN]

I think MF's real argument is what constitutes a "non-frontal" system.

When a system doesn't exhibit frontal features, I guess.

[HUC]

Thank's Chacor for the reference of this conference.Very interresting,as usual.

[Derek Ortt]

a 7th list can be put together in about 5 minutes at the meeting without costing anything

as for Grace... it was a TC. It met the definition. By MFs definition, the Brazil hurricane was not a hurricane since it formed over cool water. It is not SST that fuels the hurricane as is commonly believed. It is the temperature difference between the SST and the upper troposphere. You get cold temps aloft... SST of about 21C can support a cane (won't get a cat 3 or higher though due to MPI)

However, the system a few weeks ago looked quite similar to Grace...

[CrazyC83]

We have more significant problems like better communicating with the public, educating the public about hurricane hazards, developing better intensity forecasting models, better track forecasting models, etc. Don't waste valuable time and money to see if the Greek naming is right or wrong. Nothing went haywire in 2005 when we had to use the Greek names.

I would agree this is a very small issue, but I really don't see how this proposal "wastes valuable time and money." I don't see any request for a Gallup poll or anything similar that would cost them any substantial amount of funds. Coming up with a seventh list of personal names to use instead of the Greek alphabet isn't likely to take a huge amount of time and effort.

Why would spend time and money creating a 7th list when you know you may use it once every 60 years or so? The Greek letters are fine!

2005 was an anomaly, not the norm.

That's true, and using those makes it clear that the season was insane. The only other years that likely would have required the Greek alphabet had today's technology been available are 1887 and 1933, since it is quite likely there were more than 21 storms in each season once you look into the distant Atlantic that was not covered at the time.

[JonathanBelles]

Anyone know what has happened today?

[Chacor]

Anyone know what has happened today?

The schedule is also online at the link given in the OP; it was mostly presentations about last season by the RA IV members.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Why would spend time and money creating a 7th list when you know you may use it once every 60 years or so? The Greek letters are fine!

2005 was an anomaly, not the norm.

I guess this objection seems silly to me because I can't see where the total time spent on doing this would be more than a few hours and I can't see how there would be hardly any money involved at all. So if they decide they'd rather have names than Greek letters, what's the problem?

[HURAKAN]

I personally like the Greek letters and don't have a problem with them.

[CrazyC83]

Normally the high point is wondering what names will be retired, but I highly doubt any names from 2009 will be.

[cycloneye]

Any news from this meeting that has ended about the greek names?

[Chacor]

No news yet. I imagine they must be preparing their final report or something.

[somethingfunny]

I wonder if there was any substantive discussion about the South Atlantic given what happened there last week. I don't think it's a good idea to get into the habit of letting private companies name storms and take authority and credibility away from the official organizations. Imagine if Accu-weather or any number of the blue-bolded members on our board had authority to name the storms....we'd get storms like "Hurricane Professor Chaos" and "Tropical Storm Lame-O" or spinning around out there.