NOT SO FAST!!!

[Rainband]

Don't Go to Sleep on Wavy by MWatkins I wouldn't write off "Wavy"...and in the spirit of one of my favorite TV starts...Spongebob...that's what I have dubbed the wave...as messy as it looks right now...down between 50 and 55W.

Although the 12Z UKMET text product has given up on it...the low level vorticity field is maintained/strengthened in the actual model from where it is now (remember the last 3 runs initialized the system AS a tropical storm...the 12Z initialization was better).

Also...the GFS doesn't completely abandon the system either...taking a closed vort max to near Grand Cayman in 5 days.

12Z NOGAPS develops a closed surface low still but is weaker but just as slow as the previous solution. It still LOVERS the wave behind it...although the wave at 31W is too close to the one at 20W...so the GFS ides on some negative interaction and even some Fujiwara (as weak lows...not TC's) seems possible...but more likely one of the two will win out.

Anyway...there was a surface report from NOAA buoy 41505 at 13Z reported a surface pressure of 1006.5MB at 16.0N 52.7W...so although there's nothing exactly organized...pressures are low...

And if something does develop...the trough forecast to develop is not going to sit like the one earlier this month...it will drop in and lift out...so there's a good chance that something developing in the tropics will get pulled up...but not necessarily kicked out.

Stay tuned and remember...it's that time of year.

MW

[Steve H.]

Like I said before, this is bouncing back! Check the latest visibles. Think an LLCC is soon to come. Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

I agree with MW it is that time of the year and we may not see the atlantic active in the short term on long term yes we will see activity close to the US forming in the western caribbean and the western atlantic and also 2-3 CV grown systems but patience is the word.