Good Web Site for Long-Range Tropical Outlook

[wxman57]

As quiet as it is, I thought I'd post a link to a web site that I use a lot in our long-range outlooks. It's hidden away at NCEP.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

One interesting chart is the 200-hPa Velocity Potential Forecasts in the "Forecasts" section of the web page. There's the link labeled "Global Forecast System" that goes out 15 days and another called "Climate Forecast System" that goes out 40 days. The charts show projected areas of likely rising air (thunderstorms) in green and areas of sinking air in brown in 5 day increments. The current forecast is for a large area of sinking air to develop across the Caribbean, southern Gulf, and MDR for the next 2 weeks (see below). The 40-day Chi predicts that the sinking air will last until the last week of September. If these projections are correct (BIG IF), then we may be in for quite a quiet September.

Also on the web page are various MJO predictions, and some links to explanations of what these graphics mean.

These links and many more may be found on my revised Hurricane Links web page:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/hurricane.html

15-Day Forecast:


40-Day Forecast

[Portastorm]

Great resource, Wxman57. Thanks much for sharing!

[gatorcane]

thank you Wxman for this link, I have bookmarked it.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks wxman57 for the link. Good stuff....
I'm pretty much out of here until next year. As dissapointed I am in this year, I can also understand how good it is for the USA to have a year like this. The economy has enough to worry about.... Going forward, I think this year is one of those flukes that we won't be experiencing again for quite some time.

There may be a stray storm or two in October, but I wouldn't count on it. If September is this quiet, then I don't expect October to be any more active due to climatology...Hehe, at least I've been able to get a lot of stuff done, where normally I'm glued to these message boards this time of year

[StormTracker]

Good lookin' out wxman57! Thanks for the link and the educating role you play on S2K!!!

[Frank2]

If this holds to be true, then the season might be over, since the strong shear we see now will only increase as the northern branch of the jetstream migrates south for the winter...

I won't say "Season over!" since only God knows that answer (besides, that's bad English), but if the subsidence is forecast to be in place through late September, that really means more than we might think, especially when it comes to when the season will end...

P.S. Dr. Marks (HRD Director) was wise in deciding to fly numerous research missions into Bill, since it seems that might have been the only Atlantic basin hurricane this season - I'm sure that possibility was taken into consideration when deciding whether to fly or not, and while some might jump all over my statement, we only have to look at the 1977 season to know that this is very possible...

[ConvergenceZone]

If this holds to be true, then the season might be over, since the strong shear we see now will only increase as the northern branch of the jetstream migrates south for the winter...

I won't say "Season over!" since only God knows that answer (besides, that's bad English), but if the subsidence is forecast to be in place through late September, that really means more than we might think, especially when it comes to when the season will end...

P.S. Dr. Marks (HRD Director) was wise in deciding to fly numerous research missions into Bill, since it seems that might have been the only Atlantic basin hurricane this season - I'm sure that possibility was taken into consideration when deciding whether to fly or not, and while some might jump all over my statement, we only have to look at the 1977 season to know that this is very possible...

I agree with you Frank. There's just too much strong shear outthere for anything to get going, and no end in sight......I can't believe just how lucky the USA has been this year.

[wxman57]

I'm not saying "season over". The central and northern Gulf, as well as the area off the SE U.S. coast would remain favorable for development (at least out of the sinking air) in September. Analog seasons had rapidly-developing threats in the Gulf and along the East U.S. Coast in September - storms that developed not far offshore. We are expecting a pattern change across the U.S. after the 15th which might allow for development in the Gulf. Probably 1 more major hurricane this season.