Dr. Klotzbach 2009 Season August 4th Update

[wxman57]

In June, Klotzbach/Gray went with 11/5/2. What do you think tomorrow's updated numbers will be? I believe they were figuring on having at least 1-2 named storms by August. That hasn't happened. So I'm thinking he'll drop the forecast down a bit, maybe 10/4/2 or even 9/4/2.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has 9 storms, with 1 to 3 in August. That doesn't seem to add up. That would mean six storms in September and October. Now, I know September is typically the most interesting month, but to have to get 6 to 8 storms in September and October?


They use statistical methods, based on analogues and such. So 9/4/2 sounds reasonable. But I'll bet it is still too high.


Six or seven storms, three or four canes, my SWAG, with the one major threatening Florida.

[x-y-no]

Well, my prediction was 10/5/2 ... I'd probably lower that now if I could, say to 8/4/1 or 8/4/2.

[hurricanetrack]

Welcome to the days of pre-1995 activity! Remember those? They're back! It could be one of the quietest times for this board in many a year. Or not- that's what makes it so interesting. If we knew every year what was going to hit and where/how strong- it would not be as interesting and mysterious.

[Ptarmigan]

Welcome to the days of pre-1995 activity! Remember those? They're back! It could be one of the quietest times for this board in many a year. Or not- that's what makes it so interesting. If we knew every year what was going to hit and where/how strong- it would not be as interesting and mysterious.

It feels like middle school again for me.

[wxman57]

No sign of the update yet. Here's the link to the forecast page:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

[hurricanetrack]

The link is rolled up rigt now. All I get is nothing.

[wxman57]

The link is rolled up rigt now. All I get is nothing.

Me too. Could be they're updating the page now with the new links.

[cycloneye]

Latest numbers=10/4/2

[HURAKAN]

10-4-2

[wxman57]

They cite lower-than-normal SSTs for the downgrade. TSR cites warmer-than-normal SSTs for their increased numbers.

[cycloneye]

They cite lower-than-normal SSTs for the downgrade. TSR cites warmer-than-normal SSTs for their increased numbers.

Why the difference between them,the methodology of making the forecasts?

[HURAKAN]

I don't see the "lower than normal" SST in the tropical Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Forecast is up on the Colorado State web site now:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2009.pdf

This chart shows more below-normal temps in the eastern Atlantic and in the Caribbean. I'd think that the SST factor may be one that determines potential max intensity rather than potential development, though. Conditions aloft have to be favorable, too. Quoting from Dr. Klotzbach:

"Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures anomalies have warmed somewhat since our early June prediction and surface pressures have fallen somewhat. But, the negative influences of El Niño-induced strong Caribbean Basin and Main Development Region vertical wind shear typically dominate over surface pressure and sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic."

[Ed Mahmoud]

ten named storms seems awfully high to me. But if it is based on statistics and analogs, it might be hard to cover/predict a high ennui season.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of analog years that CSU has.

The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak to moderate El Niño conditions, and average tropical Atlantic and far northern Atlantic SSTs. Those four years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1963, which had Category 4 Hurricane Flora that devastated Cuba; and 1957, which didn't have any hurricanes that hit hit land during the peak part of hurricane season. The mean activity for these four years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes--almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

[Macrocane]

I agree better with this forecast than that one of TSR, only time will tell who was right, but this one seems more likely to me and I like their reasoning.

[OuterBanker]

Very interesting. So CSU is using 57, 02, 63, 65 which had mostly Gulf landfalls.

JB is using 54. 60, 99 and 02 which featured east coast (Mostly NC and Northeast areas)

Hoping CSU is right

Of course actually hoping for no landfalls.

I know that CSU will get credit if their right, but will JB?

Probably not, because his polarizing factor is a cat 5

[MGC]

I hope they are both wrong and all we get are fish storms. If anything does form or get into the GOM I'm afaid of the potential that exists in that body of water....water temp and heat content look on the warm side to me......MGC

[jasons2k]

This report seems to place much more emphasis on El Nino vs. the Atlantic Basin SSTs. It will be interesting to see which way the season goes, esp. now that El Nino is actually a little weaker than a few weeks ago.