ok where are the hurricanes?

[Bluefrog]

august 1st and nothing ....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi says, in his opinion, based on the SOI change and the upward motion pulse, there will be a brief window of opportunity around mid-August for something to develop, before the SOI change occuring now leads to the door slamming shut in late August into September.


I don't know why, except for the CPAC near misses (and Iniki was a September storm and Iwa was a November storm, so Hawai'i has loads of hurricane season left) this will be a real low number 1992 type season.

And with coastlines in 3 directions, I have to think Florida has the best shot of a storm.

I'm thinking, based on days without electricity after Ike and sleeping on sweat soaked sheets in my boxers, and this after a cool front passed, an August hurricane without air conditioning would be really unpleasant.


Joe Bastardi says he has alerted his big money customers of an expected threat, but exactly where, his $100/year clients like me, he didn't say. But he has been alluding to either the Southeast or Northeast since April.

[King-6]

Seems like windshear is taking over for now.

[jinftl]

On August 1, there are around 5 hurricanes over a 100 year period in the Atlantic...we are right on the precipice of the climatologic ramp-up...that will rise to over 50 hurricanes per 100 year period in just 6 weeks....(occurence of tropical storms will go from 20 storms per 100 years as of today to over 90 storms per 100 years by sept 10)....stay tuned...

[ConvergenceZone]

No season cancel posts from me unless we dont see any activity by the middle of September. If not activity by the middle of September, I'll officially be on the "season cancel" bandwagon, and for good reason.

[jinftl]

"Season cancel" should probably wait until even after mid-september.....more like when the season is just about done....towards thanksgiving (maybe that is a good indicator...when you see displays of cranberry sauce and stuffing instead of flashlights and batteries at the grocery...then it is just about time for the 'all clear'!

Who knows....we could have the "A" storm form in late September...or even later (although i doubt that from the standpoint of probability).....and what if it is a Cat 4 that grazes the east coast from Key Biscayne to Cape Hatteras....just saying, it's over when it's over since this is a 'one at a time' and 'only takes one' world of storms...what happened yesterday and what is happening today is not always an absolute indicator of what to expect tomorrow.

As soon as there is a consensus of 'season cancel', probably time to board up....esp the way this year has been in the non-weather world for so many.

No season cancel posts from me unless we dont see any activity by the middle of September. If not activity by the middle of September, I'll officially be on the "season cancel" bandwagon, and for good reason.

[Annie Oakley]

I just LOVE the heading of this thread....I laughed so hard when I read it cause I think a lot of us are thinking the same thing..but OF COURSE we don't want anyone or their property hurt. But sheesh-we need some rain and relief from this oppressive heat.

[CrazyC83]

What if we have only one storm all season - but it is a Category 5 hurricane that hits a heavily populated area?

[CourierPR]

What if we have only one storm all season - but it is a Category 5 hurricane that hits a heavily populated area?

Back in '92 when the hurricane watch went up for Andrew, I wasn't really thinking about how slowly the season was progressing.

[jinftl]

Even 2005 was a 'sigh of relief' season for areas that weren't devastated...one area's strike can often be another area's 'close call' (except for fish....we like those....unlike a storm that gets into the gulf, that sucker is land-locked).

I am confident 2009 will be an uneventful season, except for those areas that get hit (unless Mother Nature is planning a no-hitter season...hey, anything is possible...i mean seattle hit 103 deg). Even the most ardent tropical weather fan might be thinking in this recession year, maybe an uneventful season may not be so awful.....just think, we will probably be transitioning to la nina by next summer!!!

[Cryomaniac]

Even 2005 was a 'sigh of relief' season for areas that weren't devastated.

I see your point, but I can also see why that maybe is not the wisest thing to say.

if 2009 ends up like 1914 or 1983, and there are no landfalls in populated areas then all well and good.

[Rainband]

I for one am happy that there are no storms

[LaPlaceFF]

I know where the hurricanes are11111







at pat o'briens in new Orleans!!!!!

[lester]

I know where the hurricanes are11111







at pat o'briens in new Orleans!!!!!

lol that's why they're late

[HurricaneBill]

Maybe we should start posting hurricanes on milk cartons.



Have you seen me?

Please contact the National Hurricane Center.

[Ptarmigan]

I know where the hurricanes are11111







at pat o'briens in new Orleans!!!!!

I guess the hangover got them.

[Bluefrog]

I like the milk carton idea .... hilarious. I am going to key west for the labor day weekend .... think i'll make it? think i'll get chased outta town by a storm????

[One Eye]

All these fronts and troughs this time of year is totally unbelievable! We have had fronts to pass completely through several times in July and even had a record low temp. Just look at all the shear and dry air in the Atlantic. Dr. Gray may lower his storm numbers if this keeps up.

[Frank2]

Joe Bastardi says, in his opinion, based on the SOI change and the upward motion pulse, there will be a brief window of opportunity around mid-August for something to develop, before the SOI change occuring now leads to the door slamming shut in late August into September.

Far out - one of the few times that I agree with him (also see topic "Perfect Season")...

Of course none of us know for sure - a few weeks from now we might be saying "When will they stop?"...

Still, it's interesting to read his above comment...

Frank

[micktooth]

I know where the hurricanes are11111







at pat o'briens in new Orleans!!!!!

I think I also found some Hurricanes at the University of Miami, it's almost football season, so I think we'll see some out on the field really soon.