No African wave train at the moment

[boca]

Its quiet right now towards Africa.I think we have to start looking there for development. Right now theirs no waves to speak of in that neck of the woods.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

This image updates every half an hour.Watch it as there appears that a big wave may emerge Africa in the next 3-4 days.

[Sanibel]

The negative conditions have returned. Maybe the next favorable phase will have better waves.

[ConvergenceZone]

based on current conditions. It looks like we are at least a month away from seeing everything really heating up.

[cycloneye]

boca,this one at least is spinning a bit,almost the same as where 97L started.But it has to surpass hurdles like dry air and the TUTT to its NW.

[BigA]

I think a lot depends on the latitude. If this can stay down below 13-14 north, it can avoid most of the SAL http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

The shear doesn't look like it gets harmful until about 50 west, though of course, the TUTT can move http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Quickscat shows that a weak surface circulation may exist with the system. This pass shows the surface spin at 26 west, though it is about 10-12 hours old. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

Suffice to say, I don't think development terribly likely, but I have certainly seen worse.

[boca]

Good points Big A also another issue is that pressures are too high out in the Atlantic at the moment.What I mean by that is sinking air all around except along the ITCZ.If an area like around 26w like cycloneye pointed out breaks off the ITCZ its doomed because of SAL and dry air and the TUTT.

[LaBreeze]

It looks like they have disassembled the train tracks in Africa!! No trains whatsoever!

[StormTracker]

That's a good thing, or is it???

[Sanibel]

Weak spin and tiny convection at 35W. If it is anything like the others it isn't worth mentioning.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the train has been fixed.

Note=See second post of the thread.

[Sanibel]

That last wave emerging from Africa has curvature right out of the gate but looks like it will weaken like the ones before it. Nothing is getting the good center burst it needs to sustain development.

[canes04]

Sanibel,
I have been watching this one closely, it may have a chance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The wave approaching 40ºW has some rotation on the TPW animation. Looks almost more like a derecho than a wave, but impressive -80ºC cloud tops inland Africa, due to go feet wet in a day or so.

[gatorcane]

The Cape Verde season usually spans mid August through September so we are still early to be looking out here.
I do believe that in a couple of weeks, conditions should become more favorable out there. Give it time...

[BigA]

I think its reasonable to say that the wave train is back. The lastest wave off Africa has held together relatively well in its first 24-36 hours over water, and the one behind it is one of the largest waves yet this season.

[Gustywind]

No significant problems
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 27, 2009 5:17 pm ET
A weak tropical wave has moved west of the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some shower and thunderstorm activity, but nothing organized. In addition, the Caribbean is dominated by dry, sinking air which is unfavorable for development.

Another tropical wave in the Central Atlantic remains disorganized and exists mainly in the form cloudiness and a few showers.

Closer to the U.S., winds aloft in the northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico remain strong. This is not a favorable environment for tropical development.

Keep in mind it is still early in the Atlantic hurricane season. Only 15 percent of the named storms since 1950 have occurred in June and July combined.

Tropical activity ramps up quickly in the next two months with August and September accounting for 62 percent of the named storms since 1950.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news