Cane tonight??

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Aug 15, 2003 8:15 pm

Will she get to cane status tonight????

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Aug 15, 2003 8:29 pm

I'm not exactly sure if we'll get RECON information tonight before 10:30 pm (but NHC will) and I voted yes of the hurricane, but maybe by 2 am.

ameriwx2003 · #3 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Fri Aug 15, 2003 8:39 pm

Agreed. It will be a cane:):)

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 11:06 am

13 Wrongs and One right... To bad the one right person wasnt brave enough to leave a message lol

JetMaxx · #5 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 11:09 am

Heck, I was clueless enough to predict Erika striking Port Isabel and Brownsville with sustained winds of 90-100 mph with gusts over 115....and the peak gusts I could find in that area was 45-50 mph..

A mega-large helping of fried crow please

#6 Postby **bfez1** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 11:20 am

I vote, NO!

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 12:29 pm

Make that 14 right and two wrong. I think it's pretty evident that Erika became a hurricane just before landfall. All the evidence suggest so. I think the NHC just didnt bother to upgrade it since it missed Brownsville and headed into Mexico. Even their discussion says it was a 'cane. Dvorak 4.0-4.5, 91kts at 2500 ft, closed eyewall. Those aren't TS stats. 91kts at 2500 ft would equate to about 70-75kts at the surface (80-90 mph) I bet that Erika gets a post-storm upgrade later this season, as Claudette may be upped to Cat 2 later:

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ERIKA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC WERE ON THE RANGE OF 4.0 AND 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 91 KNOTS AT 2500 FEET WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 987 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE AND THE CLOSED EYEWALL REPORTED BY THE RECON.

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 12:42 pm

Erika may get the upgrade on the monthly summary. However, a precautionary note. Erika was a more satellite impressive storm than actual surface conditions. But I do think Erika will get the nudge upwards to minimal hurricane status (probably 75 mph) - 70 mph vs 75 mph, means everything in just one stat. Whether she was a tropical storm or hurricane, otherwise, the difference is miniscule.

SF

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 12:51 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Erika may get the upgrade on the monthly summary. However, a precautionary note. Erika was a more satellite impressive storm than actual surface conditions. But I do think Erika will get the nudge upwards to minimal hurricane status (probably 75 mph) - 70 mph vs 75 mph, means everything in just one stat. Whether she was a tropical storm or hurricane, otherwise, the difference is miniscule.

SF

I would disagree, with respect to Erica's satellite appearance and its strength at landfall, SF. There's no evidence to suggest that Erika only looked impressive on satellite at landfall. There were just no observations at the surface where the center moved inland, and I don't believe Recon was able to make any. Brownsville was too far north and out of the CDO, so you can't use that station as a basis for low surface winds.

But, true, the difference between 70 and 75-80 mph is tiny.

southerngale · #10 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 1:26 pm

chadtm80 wrote:13 Wrongs and One right... To bad the one right person wasnt brave enough to leave a message lol

Oh, that was me, you mean my post didn't go through??? Hmmm...that's odd....it was me.....I voted no.....yep, sure did....uh-huh....yeppers. 8-)

#11 Postby **bfez1** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 1:34 pm

And I didnt even realize I voted to late. :oops:

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 2:30 pm

I voted yes today (Saturday) - maybe they'll upgrade it tonight? :wink:

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 2:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:I voted yes today (Saturday) - maybe they'll upgrade it tonight?

*LOL* -

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Aug 16, 2003 2:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Erika may get the upgrade on the monthly summary. However, a precautionary note. Erika was a more satellite impressive storm than actual surface conditions. But I do think Erika will get the nudge upwards to minimal hurricane status (probably 75 mph) - 70 mph vs 75 mph, means everything in just one stat. Whether she was a tropical storm or hurricane, otherwise, the difference is miniscule.

SF

I would disagree, with respect to Erica's satellite appearance and its strength at landfall, SF. There's no evidence to suggest that Erika only looked impressive on satellite at landfall. There were just no observations at the surface where the center moved inland, and I don't believe Recon was able to make any. Brownsville was too far north and out of the CDO, so you can't use that station as a basis for low surface winds.

But, true, the difference between 70 and 75-80 mph is tiny.

My debate with Erika's strength in relation to the surface vs. aloft was on how difficult it was for the system to work its way down to the surface its entire trek from east of Florida through the Gulf (probably due to its rapid west movement). While its satellite presentation looked pretty much excellent, it still seemed to struggle to work its way down to the surface.
But I agree that Erika did reach hurricane status. Since I didn't know that there were no surface observations available in that region, I may rethink this position if we can get some reports. (I still am rethinking this since you brought this information to my attention).

SF

Cane tonight??

Will she be upgraded tonight??

Cane tonight??

14 right - 2 wrong

Heh..

Re: Heh..

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