Hi everyone, seems that a little area of perturbed weather is trying to act a bit, this wave should bring a nice round of showers and tstorms near the Eastern Carib Saturday or Sunday, models do not support any TD and winds are not pretty favorable, so good news for us, but as usual let's see what happens...
Convection is popping nicely since this morning 5am...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir4.html
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231106
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM
IN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 47W-56W...LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.
Area of disturbed weather east of the Windwards Islands
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Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231819
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
AXNT20 KNHC 231819
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
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