Area of Disturbed Weather in Western Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Chat away:

[wyq614]

I noticed this, too, BUt don't know which direction it is heading.

[gatorcane]

looks like WNW heading to me.

[Blown Away]

From Jeff Master's:
An area of disturbed weather in association with a tropical wave has developed in the south central Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the northeast coast of Nicaragua. This region is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear. Some slow development is likely before the disturbance comes ashore over northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Thursday morning. Heavy rains of 3-6" can be expected in those regions on Thursday, but the disturbance does not have time to develop into a tropical depression. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

[gatorcane]

I disgagree with Jeff Masters on it crashing into Central America. You can already see the low and mid-level flow veering to the SE-NW across the Western Caribbean

[Sanibel]

I can't figure if this is associated with 91L or a second LOW forming. I think it is associated.

[wxman57]

I can't figure if this is associated with 91L or a second LOW forming. I think it is associated.

It's a separate wave we've been tracking. This is the same system that caused the storms between Jamaica and the DR a few days ago. Doesn't look like much, just a wave, and shear is too high for development. This moisture will also be drawn northward up the front on Friday.

[gatorcane]

When I look at this vis loop, I see a swirl just north of 15N and about 81W heading NW. Is this an eddy or something to watch?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[gatorcane]

This bouy in the SW Caribbean is seeing quite a dive in surface pressure. It's dropped 0.05 inches in the past 2 hours. Wind speeds and gusts are on the increase gradually over the past 24 hours or so. What do you think?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=GMT

10 22 1950 ESE 15.5 17.5 6.6 7 5.5 - 29.80 -0.07 82.9 84.6 75.2 - - -
10 22 1850 E 13.6 15.5 6.2 7 5.3 - 29.83 -0.06 79.7 84.7 76.5 - - -
10 22 1750 E 17.5 21.4 5.9 8 5.3 - 29.85 -0.05 84.4 84.9 78.1 - - -

[MiamiensisWx]

The season is likely finished for the CONUS, gator, although it is very probable that we'll observe one additional TC that affects the Caribbean or open Atlantic...

It is a climatologically astute statement when one notes the fact that November TC strikes on the CONUS are scarce, although they have occurred on multiple occasions; the hits include three hurricanes, two of which were Category 2 strikes. The Category 2 hits were Kate 1985 (NW Florida) and the 1935 Yankee hurricane (SE Florida). The third hurricane was a Category 1 strike on North Carolina in 1861. Regardless, November hurricanes (and tropical storms) are generally quite rare in the CONUS.

[Sanibel]

It's almost like TD16 passed its energy to 91L and now this wave has taken the energy left by 91L.


Black IR there and maybe some spin.

[Rainband]

The season is likely finished for the CONUS, gator, although it is very probable that we'll observe one additional TC that affects the Caribbean or open Atlantic...

It is a climatologically astute statement when one notes the fact that November TC strikes on the CONUS are scarce, although they have occurred on multiple occasions; the hits include three hurricanes, two of which were Category 2 strikes. The Category 2 hits were Kate 1985 (NW Florida) and the 1935 Yankee hurricane (SE Florida). The third hurricane was a Category 1 strike on North Carolina in 1861. Regardless, November hurricanes (and tropical storms) are generally quite rare in the CONUS.

Climatology has been thrown out the window in the past few years. With all due respect that argument isn't valid. The tropics haven't behaved recently and mother nature will follow no one's rules but her own.

[HurricaneBelle]

The season is likely finished for the CONUS, gator, although it is very probable that we'll observe one additional TC that affects the Caribbean or open Atlantic...

It is a climatologically astute statement when one notes the fact that November TC strikes on the CONUS are scarce, although they have occurred on multiple occasions; the hits include three hurricanes, two of which were Category 2 strikes. The Category 2 hits were Kate 1985 (NW Florida) and the 1935 Yankee hurricane (SE Florida). The third hurricane was a Category 1 strike on North Carolina in 1861. Regardless, November hurricanes (and tropical storms) are generally quite rare in the CONUS.

The Tampa Bay/Sarasota area was hit by 60-knot TS Keith the Monday/Tuesday before Thanksgiving in 1988, and Hurricane Michelle impacted the Keys in 2001 as well.

[caneman]

The season is likely finished for the CONUS, gator, although it is very probable that we'll observe one additional TC that affects the Caribbean or open Atlantic...

It is a climatologically astute statement when one notes the fact that November TC strikes on the CONUS are scarce, although they have occurred on multiple occasions; the hits include three hurricanes, two of which were Category 2 strikes. The Category 2 hits were Kate 1985 (NW Florida) and the 1935 Yankee hurricane (SE Florida). The third hurricane was a Category 1 strike on North Carolina in 1861. Regardless, November hurricanes (and tropical storms) are generally quite rare in the CONUS.

Respect your post and enjoy reading them, however find it odd to hear you make a climatological statement after reading you rip another member for same. At least I believe it was you. Either way, not a wise statement to make. Looks like some popcorning taking place off the coast of the Yucatan. Now wind shear may not allow for development but none the less it looks interesting this morning.

[caneman]

Both GFS and UKMET in the 06z show some type of system impacting West Florida now. From the looks of it, this looks like it should be tagged an invest again.

[gatorcane]

Latest, looking awfully disturbed in the WCAR:

[boca]

On the sat pic that gatorcane posted it looks like something is trying to form just off the yucatan because I see popcorn convection trying to form in a circular manner just about 75 miles east of the coast of the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

I see definite cyclonic turning at 18N 83W (middle of NW Caribbean Sea) heading NNW.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

look how the shear tendency is decreasing now across the NW Caribbean. There is a chance this area could briefly organize before hitting higher shear to the north:

Watch for an invest tag later today.

[Blown Away]

Both GFS and UKMET in the 06z show some type of system impacting West Florida now. From the looks of it, this looks like it should be tagged an invest again.

Can you provide a link to the Ukmet model run?

I think should at least place "Code Yellow" over this area this afternoon.

[AJC3]

Both GFS and UKMET in the 06z show some type of system impacting West Florida now. From the looks of it, this looks like it should be tagged an invest again.

The system forecast by all the model guidance to impact FL is a baroclinic low that's already taking shape up around 25-26N and 88-89W. It's jet forcing that will spin up that low, not anything tropically (i.e. latent heat) derived - UL winds across FL and the northern GOMEX are already 60-80KT or higher. What is most likely to happen is that the energy associated with the convection east of the Yucatan will get drawn up into a developing XTROP low.