Area of disturbed weather off East Coast U.S.A

[Just Joshing You]

Does anyone else think this should be watched for potential development? It has organized a bit over the past day.

[M_0331]

I am near Charleston, SC; was watching storms come around MB & then turn southwest to my area & then go east 100 miles to my south. The storms seem to moving around a center about 100+ miles to my southeast. Beaucoup rain here with 20 knot winds during storms. I have no opinion on this turning tropical except ~center is over gulfstream & not moving. Maybe some other southeast people can confirm my observations. Rock, I saw the spinning & came on S2K to see if it was being talked about.

[Just Joshing You]

I noticed cyclonic turning, that's why I've been watching it for the past day. It has really organized as of late. I don't know if it will ever be tropical or sub tropical, but it looks possible.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has been on this.

Looking at visible loops, it looks frontal, and doesn't look super organized.

I don't see much in the way of pressure falls at the NDBC buoys, either.

[M_0331]

Temp here is 71 db & 68 wb; > 93% humidity. Storms were moving NE yesterday, now SW. I saw spinning yesterday with ~center just offshore. Storms have become more powerful today.

[M_0331]

NWS out of CHS states the cut off low off the SC coast will be pushed by a high across southern Georgia & NW Fl into NW gulf by tomorrow night or Sunday. No further forecast past that since system will then be out of SC/GA area.

[somethingfunny]

NWS out of CHS states the cut off low off the SC coast will be pushed by a high across southern Georgia & NW Fl into NW gulf by tomorrow night or Sunday. No further forecast past that since system will then be out of SC/GA area.

That would be an exceedingly odd track if this were to develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Could briefly become a tropical storm before moving
inland- it will move inland due to a building ridge to its north.

[M_0331]

000
FXUS62 KCHS 111947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --LOW PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THICK CLOUD
COVER ALSO LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITHIN CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE THUS TRANSITIONED POP SCHEME TO SHOW HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST...WITH POPS DECREASING INLAND. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENED BY THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.


.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DAMPENING COASTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
WEST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THUS
EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN WITH LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...LIKELY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE COASTAL
GEORGIA COUNTIES.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

About to move inland, should provide mainly
squalls. No tropical development as of now.