Disturbed weather in Eastern Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

Nothing exceptionnal or to kill a cat, but...since two days Martinica and Guadeloupe (yesterday)have issued an yellow alert for a moderate risk of thunderstorms sometimes locally strong in each island. Each afternoon it's a convective party added to the lightning show, and Monday in my location i was amazed by the loud of these thunderstorms boombing nicely and the brigthness of some of , just a word waouw, and be careful if you suffer from heart disease , that's surely not the entertainement of Mother Nature!!!. Sometimes the rain is very strong briefly with some moderate gustywinds close to 30 kts. Amount of water near 50 to 80millimeters are expected in some locations especially near the mountains....

We should experience this type of very moist and convective weather for at least 48 or 72h And the numerous models do not anticipate good news for the week-end but poor and electric weather given Meteo-France.

Off topic islanders, we should keep an eye at the "weak" low disturbance at 38w as usual, but it's a big IF. Hope that the others members of the Windwards/ Leewards are ok with this moist weather and the convective pattern. Hey Cycloneye, what's the weather like in PR, same that here? Bvigal, msbee and the others from the north... tell us if the situation is similar ?
Thougts are welcomed as usual my carib friends given the actual synopsis on most the islands....
Nice regards, Gustywind

[Sanibel]

Just a shear border.

[Gustywind]

Just a shear border.

Shear border or not for us in the islands, it's always something to monitor Sanibel ...

[Gustywind]

Conditions are deteriorating here, the thunder is rumbling frequently and strongly,the sky is dark ( grey) by the hour... Numerous cells of CB clouds are beginning to devellop with very pretty light winds.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[msbee]

Gusty
did you have a lot of rain today? We had a heavy thunderstorm lsat night with a lot of rain. Today was partly cloudy with no wind at all. This is how the sea looks..can't even tell where the horizon is.



Tonight I see lightening in the distance and possible thunderstorms are forecast.
Nothing serious but it really is so hot and so still.
I wish we could get the trade winds blowing again.

[Gustywind]

Gusty
did you have a lot of rain today? We had a heavy thunderstorm lsat night with a lot of rain. Today was partly cloudy with no wind at all. This is how the sea looks..can't even tell where the horizon is.



Tonight I see lightening in the distance and possible thunderstorms are forecast.
Nothing serious but it really is so hot and so still.
I wish we could get the trade winds blowing again.

oh tkanks fr all these informations my friend , pretty similar here no rain but with numerous lightnings at 7 PM but no more after...It's always very hot and humid too in Guadeloupe, tommorow the "convective party" will redevelopp given Meteo-France. Tkanks for the pic, very nice msbee.
Sweet kisses from Guadeloupe!
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Waouw, not good news for us as a moderate twave should increase the convective pattern during the next 24H given the TWD of 205 AM:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH
THE ITCZ IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Huge bulks are approaching Barbados and should sweep all the Windwards this afternoon and during the night or tommorow morning for us in the Leewards, hope no more in terms of electric activity , let's see what happens...

[Gustywind]

Humm, pretty suspicious forecast of Meteo-France as i was consulting their latest forecasts, the week-end shoul be tough very poor, the wave to our east is expected to be very active and they monitor it for maybe possible signs of intensification given our Pro Met. Wet weather conditions are expected for at least MONDAY !!! Amount of water higher than 60 millimeters is highly possible during the episode. A threat of strong thunderstorm is probable in any locations of the island... so it's a Bear watching my carib friends in East Carib...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Winds are abatting in vicinity of the East Carib...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 091133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN COULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

ABNT20 KNHC 091133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN COULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/atl_overview.gif
Code Yellow right now with this broad area of low pressure....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH
THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO 11N58W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-59W.

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from Puerto Rico with Twave at 57/58w....for all Carib islanders, bear watching it!



FXCA62 TJSJ 090755
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST THU OCT 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IR AND WV IMAGES ARE SHOWING A DRIER
AIR MASS WORKING ITS WAYS DOWN TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME (07Z)...THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS DRIER TREND SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FINALLY THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA SINCE THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MAKES ITS WAY DOWN TO OUR REGION. EXPECT A PLEASANT MORNING
WITH PLENTY SUNSHINE AT LEAST THROUGH NOON TIME. THEN...CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES AS WELL AS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL CONTINUING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL RIVER STREAMS TO RISE
ABOVE THEIR FLOOD STAGES. ALSO...MINOR URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES FROM PONCE WESTWARD TO
CABO ROJO.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THOSE
ANTICIPATED TODAY VERSUS A WETTER UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 56/57W IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH
A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH VORT MAX NEAR 18N 54.5W THIS MORNING AND
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LATEST NAM SOLUTION...PUT THIS FEATURE PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AS A LOW CLOSED SYSTEM WHILE BOTH UKMET AND GFS HAVE IT AS A
OPEN TROPICAL WAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NO
MATTER WHICH SOLUTION HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS
FEATURE...EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND FOR THIS PERIOD IF WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND MODEL GUIDANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCHANGED.

STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
NEW FORECAST UPDATES ARE MADE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU 15-16Z...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MVFR SHRA VCNTY OF TJSJ...TJBQ...AND TISX. AFTER
16Z...MILD NE WIND FLOW SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON CNVTN ACROSS THE N
SLOPES AND CORDILLERA OF PUERTO RICO...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SW ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJPS FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TSRA...AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...WHILE
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TIST AND TISX IN LEADWARD CLOUD BANDS. CNVTN
DISSIPATING AND MOVING SW INTO CARIB WATERS BY AROUND 22-23Z.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS
THESE WATERS FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 50 50 40 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 30 30 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

70/17/

[Sanibel]

Another Tobago wave. Maybe this one is deeper into the MJO and will spin?

[Gustywind]

Another Tobago wave. Maybe this one is deeper into the MJO and will spin?

that's the 10000$ question Sanibel.
Whereas convection is expanding and increasing by the hour...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Looking better and convection is firing up

[Sanibel]

Reluctant to jump after the last one poofed. Smells like a late season rebound.


Not enough hurricanes to hit my 15-9-4. (I thought I was too high when I predicted that)

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Improving system, northern frange seems pretty robust
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir4.html

[FireBird]

Hi Guys,
Even if we don't get spin, the intense showers [though beautiful to behold], are always a concern for our little islands.
So thanks for all this info.
Certainly we are on the lookout for the rain. Yesterday dealt us some awesome thunderstorms mid-morning. My neighbourhood floods easily so the streets are still packed up with mud.
I think Barbados may be in for some heavy activity, so to my fellow islanders - keep up the vigil!

[Gustywind]

Hi Guys,
Even if we don't get spin, the intense showers [though beautiful to behold], are always a concern for our little islands.
So thanks for all this info.
Certainly we are on the lookout for the rain. Yesterday dealt us some awesome thunderstorms mid-morning. My neighbourhood floods easily so the streets are still packed up with mud.
I think Barbados may be in for some heavy activity, so to my fellow islanders - keep up the vigil!

Absolutely, good post and you make sense...i appreciate Firebird . Spin or not, predictions in terms of final numbers or not who is a but funny when you don't live in the islands... (last post of Sanibel), we should keep watching this like you well said it Firebird, thunderstorms and rains are a threat for us in the islands. Hope no spin on this one, it could be very dramatic with the toon of humidity over the Windwards/Leewards Islands, but as usual we must not let our guard down, October is always an active month, don't forget it , remember José in October 1999? . So it's a bear watching it as the system is improving hour after hour with my untrained eyes.
Meteo-France of Martinica and Guadeloupe have maintained the alert level ( yellow) for at least MONDAY, so it's something to watch carefully, a "simple" wave can always bring serious damages, last wave on us and Puerto-Rico.....

[Gustywind]

Hey Firebird, you should experience serious thunderstorms with rain given the latest sat pic, that's amazing !Hope nothing more on your island of Barbados, but the electric activity of the previous days has been pretty strong, the arrival of this perturbed area could change dramatically the situation...