EPAC September Summary - TC activity lowest ever recorded

[HURAKAN]

297
ABPZ30 KNHC 011457
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING SEPTEMBER WAS THE LOWEST
EVER RECORDED SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971. IN TERMS OF THE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY INDEX (ACE)...SEPTEMBER 2008 HAD A VALUE
OF ONLY 9% OF THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE. ONLY TWO TROPICAL STORMS WERE
NOTED DURING THE MONTH AND THERE WERE NO HURRICANES. THE 1971-2007
AVERAGES ARE THREE TROPICAL STORMS...TWO HURRICANES...AND ONE MAJOR
HURRICANE.

KARINA WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FORMED 260 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY
ON 2 SEPTEMBER FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. KARINA
WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH IT WAS
ABLE TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 40 MPH LATE ON 2 SEPTEMBER.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR INCREASED FURTHER AND KARINA DEGENERATED TO
A REMNANT LOW LATE ON THE THE THIRD OF SEPTEMBER.

LOWELL FORMED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EARLY ON 7
SEPTEMBER WHILE IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. DESPITE BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE STORM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE
NEXT DAY AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 MPH WHEN IT WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
LOWELL CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
BUT STARTED TO WEAKEN ON 9 SEPTEMBER AS IT BEGAN TO INGEST STABLE
AIR AND REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE
CYCLONE ULTIMATELY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 10
SEPTEMBER AND TURNED SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. LOWELL MADE LANDFALL OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY ON 11 SEPTEMBER...MOVED ACROSS THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THEN DISSIPATED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO NEAR LOS MOCHIS EARLY ON 12 SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGH NO DEATHS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM THE REMNANTS
OF LOWELL LEFT MORE THAN 26500 PEOPLE HOMELESS IN THE MEXICAN
STATES OF MICHOACAN...SONORA...AND SINALOA.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TS KARINA 2-3 SEP 40 0
TS LOWELL 7-12 SEP 60 0
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NOTES...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT

[Cyclenall]

I'm not shocked about this. I thought there was only one named storm for September in the Epac but I forgot about Lowell I think. For there to be such low ACE for this month and the fact it isn't a La Nina currently, this is spooky!

[Ed Mahmoud]

If more than a normal number of African waves develop in the Atlantic Basin, there will be fewer than normal waves making it into the Pacific.

Now that the Atlantic is semi-quiet, should see a few more EPac storms.