Convection and 1009mb Low over Western Africa

[SouthFloridawx]

Can't believe no one is mentioning this yet. Lets see what happens when it moves off shore. It's got some upper level support and low level convergence and low shear ahead of it. Not too much model support though.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 20 KT
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY.







Little or no SAL



Low wind shear off the coast

[Nimbus]

Our friend Mr. TUTT in the mid atlantic has kept me less interested in the eastern Atlantic.
It is the peak of the hurricane season and Mr TUTT might well lift out by the time this wave gets that far west. We are about due for a system to spin up east of 40 but does this look like a fish storm?

[HURAKAN]

SFwx, Luis (cycloneye) created a thread a few days ago about the TWs over Africa. We were already looking at it but waiting for it to step out into the water!

[meteorologyman]

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The only huge factor against the new low is the dry air ahead of it, which may inhibit the storm from growing in size and RI.

There are 2 Highs one in US and another in the Atlantic similar to 2004,2005.


As of now there is a big weakness between the 2 highs so it could fish.

But if any 2 Highs close in then we could be looking at another bad player, but it's too far in time to say where this will go.

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM discussion.

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 18Z ANALYSIS/SURFACE MAP
ALONG 17W/18W BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
PICTURES. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. A
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-14N. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND 850 MB VORTICITY ALSO
SUPPORT THE WAVE POSITION INDICATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-19N.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=