what is the latest date a cat 4 or more has hit FL?

[cpdaman]

i know that this is a generally unpleasent topic to think about

but i was wondering what the latest date for a cat 4 or 5 to hit fl may have been

[MiamiensisWx]

From 1851 to 2007, the latest date for a Category 4 strike on the state was September 18, when the 1926 Miami hurricane moved ashore over Dade County (125 kt/933 mb). Only two Category 5 TCs have impacted the state during this period; the latest impact was the September 2, 1935 Labor Day hurricane on the Monroe County (Florida) Keys. However, it is probable that the October 11, 1846 (Great Havana/Florida) hurricane may have been a Category 4/5 hurricane as it passed near Key West; multiple credible studies have estimated that the TC's minimum central pressure was below 940 mb as it affected the lower Florida Keys, and one estimate places the pressure near ~902 mb west of Key West.

Additional interesting facets:

-From 1851 to 2007, the state of Florida has never received a Category 4/5 strike from the south, south-southwest, or southwest in October/November.
-From 1851 to 2007, no Category 4/5 strikes have occurred north of the latitude of Palm Beach County on the state's east coast; the northernmost Cat 4/5 hit on the eastern FL peninsula was Storm #4 of 1928, which crossed West Palm Beach as a Category 4 TC.

[Patrick99]

There have been quite a few Cat. 3 October hits. And Wilma could easily have been a Cat. 4 or worse had it not sat over the Yucatan.

[MiamiensisWx]

From 1851 to 2007, a total of eight Category 4/5 landfalls have occurred in the state of Florida.

1919 #3 - Cat 4 (130 kt/927 mb); Monroe County (FL) Keys
1926 #6 - Cat 4 (125 kt/933 mb); Dade County
1928 #4 - Cat 4 (125 kt/929 mb); Palm Beach County
1935 #2 - Cat 5 (160 kt/892 mb); Monroe County (FL) Keys
1947 #4 - Cat 4 (? kt/940 mb); Broward County
Donna 1960 - Cat 4 (115-120 kt/930 mb); Monroe County (FL) Keys
Andrew 1992 - Cat 5 (145 kt/922 mb); Dade County
Charley 2004 - Cat 4 (130 kt/941 mb); Lee/Charlotte counties

1851 to 2007 - 8 hits within 156 years (average of 0.05 hits per year)

The statistics demonstrate the pronounced rarity of Category 4/5 strikes even in the state of Florida.

[cpdaman]

yes quite rare for fl to be hit by a 4 or more

now cuba getting hit by 2 4's within 2 weeks is very unlikely to happen again any time soon, but i wonder how many 4's or 5's they have been hit by *many more than Fl i assume*, also the NW bahamas i believe have seen quite a few more than Fl as well. Floyd and frances i believe raked them as 4's "recently".

also miami thank's for the stat's i guess one could say based on those stats and the dates that s. fl has 99.5% chance of escaping cat4's and 5's for the rest of the year. seems like the caribean systems while dangerous generally are between 1-3's by the time they reach the state.

[MiamiensisWx]

The rarity of a truly "extreme"/"exceptional" event (in regards to size, wind radii, intensity, strength, and other factors) is much more pronounced in Florida and the CONUS than many people postulate. False perceptions are reinforced by flawed data in the Atlantic hurricane database and official NOAA list of United States hurricanes, including egregious overestimated/underestimated TCs. For example, although only six Category 4 landfalls have occurred in the state of Florida from 1851 to 2007, HURDAT also lists two additional TCs (1945 #9 and 1949 #2) as Category 4 hurricanes as they crossed the SE Florida coastline. However, these TCs are officially designated as Category 3 TCs at their Florida landfalls, which is supported by all available evidence and my personal examinations. As previously mentioned, discrepancies between HURDAT and the official NOAA list are common, and they will be resolved (post-1920) by the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project. As an aside, 1947 #4 is listed as a Category 4 TC in SE Florida in both sources, but I have extensively perused 1947 newspaper articles, numerous photographs in SE FL, the Monthly Weather Review, eyewitness accounts, and other sources. Wind damage across SE Florida was extensive, but it was not even remotely close to the severity of Andrew and the 1926 Miami hurricane. Winds were very analogous to Wilma (or slightly higher) in most areas, with narrow streaks of stronger 1-min winds. Overall, impacts, size/wind radii, and intensity were very similar to Jeanne 2004 along the Treasure Coast of east-central Florida. The 1947 hurricane's large wind radii and very limited aereal coverage of Cat 2 (or greater) 1-min winds was very reminescent of Jeanne 2004. Severe, widespread beach erosion and impact from waves was very similar to Frances and Jeanne of 2004. In addition, the eye of the 1947 hurricane exhibited an expansive 40 mile diameter, which was verified by Miami radar at the time. Calm conditions were reported from Hollywood to Delray Beach (from S Broward County to S Palm Beach County). Although a reading of 135 kt (155 mph) was reported from the Hillsboro Inlet Light station, the instrument was elevated, and the value may be unreliable because of instruments' "noisiness" during the earlier decades. The 105 kt 5-min wind reading may have been a 1-min value; regardless, maximum sustained winds at the surface were certainly lower. Overall, the 1947 TC may have been a Category 3 TC (105 kt/120 mph) at landfall on SE Florida.

In regards to the 1945 and 1949 hurricanes, their impacts were clearly not as severe as Andrew 1992, Miami 1926, or Palm Beach/Okeechobee 1928. It is a regional tendency that should be noted; the most severe TCs with the greatest short/long term impacts do NOT blend in with the profusion of strikes (TS/hurricane/intense hurricane) - they always stand out from the crowd. Camille (strength/intensity/synoptic set-up/size/surge), Katrina (size/wind radii/fetch/intensity/surge/inland impact), Rita (size/intensity/surge), and a selection of others stand out from all other Louisiana hurricanes; Hugo (strength/size/wind radii/intensity/inland impact), Hazel (intensity/surge/waves/inland impact), and a very small minority of great storms surpass the collective memories of other TCs in the Carolinas; Carla (VERY HIGH Integrated Kinetic Energy/size/wind radii/strength/intensity/surge), 1900 (strength/surge impact), Rita (wind radii/intensity/surge), and Ike (wind radii/extensive wind impact/surge) stand among the truly "legendary" Texas TCs. On the southern mainland of Florida, even careful scrutiny and examination of past records (+100 years) cannot unveil a TC with wind impacts as severe as Andrew. This is a strong indication that Andrew (and the 1935 hurricane in the Keys) is an extremely rare event in terms of wind strength. You can also rarely encounter TCs with large wind fields, wave/erosion impacts, and very intense 1-min winds at landfall like the 1926 Miami hurricane and 1928 Palm Beach hurricane.

In the annals of hurricane history, it is very important to determine the true frequency of high "impact" events. Why were these events so integral in regions as well? Coastal topography and regional characteristics should be incorporated into objective analyses as well. For example, the shelf waters of the Gulf Coast lead to less wave impacts and greater surge heights. The deep offshore waters near SE Florida lead to greater wave impacts (instead of surge) along the Atlantic coast and barrier islands; however, the shallow Biscayne/Florida Bays are exceptions.

[Derek Ortt]

there was no weather radar in 1947. Radar did not become operational until 1957

[weatherwindow]

just an observation, miami....the hopetown(abacos) station reading of 160mph would tend to support a cat 4 landfall, such as the hillsboro reading of 155mph, reduced, of course for elevation...altho i havent been able to access the station records to verify, MWR notes the 70mi extent of cat 2 winds(uncertain as to gust or sustained), from north dade to pbc..this would seem to lend credence to a stronger storm..the obvious hole in this argument is the relatively high slp of 947mb..can you provide your research links.......rich

[jinftl]

As recent history has shown, a Cat 4 or 5 is not required for a storm to produce extensive and costly damage to an area. This is not only true in florida, but all over the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Wilma, Katrina, Ike....3 storms that were cat 3 or under at landfall. A Cat 2 with a large windfield hitting a major metro area will very easily cause damage to rank it amongst the top 10 costliest storms. The occurrence of cat 4 or higher storms may be infrequent....but the occurrence of cat 2 or 3 storms in florida is much more common and as wilma showed, very very damaging.

[Bocadude85]

While Cat 4 or higher is not that common Cat 3's in Florida are a little more common and can cause quite a lot of damage.. I looked back into the history of Florida tropical cyclones and counted 20 Cat 3 landfalls.

[MiamiensisWx]

just an observation, miami....the hopetown(abacos) station reading of 160mph would tend to support a cat 4 landfall, such as the hillsboro reading of 155mph, reduced, of course for elevation...altho i havent been able to access the station records to verify, MWR notes the 70mi extent of cat 2 winds(uncertain as to gust or sustained), from north dade to pbc..this would seem to lend credence to a stronger storm..the obvious hole in this argument is the relatively high slp of 947mb..can you provide your research links.......rich

I can't disclose my printed sources, as I obtained them from local historical archives and traversed the newspapers in the museums. I don't have the sources "on hand" at this time. However, 1947 articles from Miami/Fort Lauderdale newspapers explicitly stated that the eye diameter was (roughly?) 40 miles at landfall, as denoted by Miami radar and surface observations. The articles indicated that calm conditions were simultaneously reported by residents in Fort Lauderdale and Boca/Delray Beach, indicating an expansive center. The wind and pressure centers were not defined in the accounts, but data from the 1947 Monthly Weather Review (click link) and the duration of the calm conditions at Fort Lauderdale suggests the pressure center/center of eye made landfall around Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, between Hillsboro Inlet and Fort Lauderdale. Note that the "no lull" information for Hillsboro Inlet Light is bogus, as demonstrated by the aforementioned reliable accounts from local news sources at the time. Although the 947.2 mb reading from Hillsboro Inlet is reliable, as the pressure center crossed the coast slightly south of that location, the actual minimum central pressure was likely slightly lower; regardless, as the eye and pressure gradient was expansive, the official central pressure of 940 mb may be too low. The actual minimum central pressure may have been near ~945 mb, based on deductive reasoning and interpretation of the data at hand. As I previously mentioned, Jeanne of 2004 (950 mb/120 mph at landfall) is an analogous case in my mind, based on the large size, weaker gradient balance (because of the large wind radii), and large eye at landfall. In regards to the specified extent of ~85 kt (100 mph) winds in the MWR, it may be legitimate, but I tend to harbor skepticism in regards to older reports on wind fields. It also does not specificy whether the winds were 1-min sustained values or gusts. However, it is very possible that the estimate may be reasonably accurate in this case, as the TC exhibited a large RMW at landfall. I do not think it (necessarily) leads credence to stronger maximum sustained winds at landfall, as it may represent a byproduct of the weaker gradient balance/large wind radii.

Interesting Time article:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,804227-1,00.html

there was no weather radar in 1947. Radar did not become operational until 1957

Derek,

That does not explain the inexplicable existance of the following land based (pre-Doppler) radar from Key West, Florida (depicting Storm #7, 1948):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1948_Hurricane.JPG

Can you clarify your statement? Thanks. Obviously, I've always been acquainted with the fact that operational radar did not exist until succeeding years, as you mentioned.

As recent history has shown, a Cat 4 or 5 is not required for a storm to produce extensive and costly damage to an area. This is not only true in florida, but all over the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Wilma, Katrina, Ike....3 storms that were cat 3 or under at landfall. A Cat 2 with a large windfield hitting a major metro area will very easily cause damage to rank it amongst the top 10 costliest storms. The occurrence of cat 4 or higher storms may be infrequent....but the occurrence of cat 2 or 3 storms in florida is much more common and as wilma showed, very very damaging.

JinFTL,

I absolutely agree... as you know, I have been repeatedly debunking meteorological myths (on climatology, risk, "overdue", storm impacts, etc.), and I've been emphasizing the true severity of Cat 1/2 winds. In fact, I was often the "lone voice" stating that wind radii/size (along with intensity at ONE POINT in a TC's life cycle in some cases) is MUCH more important in regards to surge/wave impacts; I've been stating that surge does NOT decrease if the TC fills/weakens prior to landfall. On another forum, I unequivocably stated that we would observe scenes comparable to Rita in the regions NE of Galveston; sadly, I was correct. The reality is that Ike was a tremendous event from all perspectives; inland, the WIND impact (as opposed to the incomparable surge impact) demonstrated the effects of a broad Cat 1 wind radii on a major metropolitan area, as previously demonstrated by Alicia and Wilma. Along the coast, Ike was comparable to Katrina and (especially) Rita in regards to surge/wave impacts; I NEVER compared Wilma to Gulf TCs in regards to surge. Katrina, Ivan, Rita, Ike, et al were MUCH more (endlessly) destructive in the surge department and overall destruction than TCs like Wilma. I was merely expounding on some research on "big" events (in regards to surge, winds, size/wind radii, Integrated Kinetic Energy, etc.) for specific regions along the coastal regions of the CONUS, respectively.

I'm lamenting the fact that the current finance situation has precluded me from sending donations to the affected regions at the moment...

[jinftl]

Was the 1926 Miami Hurricane a Cat 3 or 4 or at landfall? I have read esimates that this storm hitting the same location today would result in almost twice the damage katrina caused....scary...

[MiamiensisWx]

Was the 1926 Miami Hurricane a Cat 3 or 4 or at landfall? I have read esimates that this storm hitting the same location today would result in almost twice the damage katrina caused....scary...

It was a Category 4 (125 kt/145 mph/933 mb) TC at landfall... Cat 2 (100 mph) winds occurred in Hollywood/Fort Lauderdale, which is well north of the landfall location in Coral Gables.

[jinftl]

i can see why that windfield would be so damaging across a large area of not only miami-dade but also most of broward and even parts of palm beach county....in other words, the most densely populated areas of south florida today

Was the 1926 Miami Hurricane a Cat 3 or 4 or at landfall? I have read esimates that this storm hitting the same location today would result in almost twice the damage katrina caused....scary...

It was a Category 4 (125 kt/145 mph/933 mb) TC at landfall... Cat 2 (100 mph) winds occurred in Hollywood/Fort Lauderdale, which is well north of the landfall location in Coral Gables.

[Aslkahuna]

Operational radars designed specifically for storm detection and tracking did not become operational as a National network until the 1950's but decommisioned military radars were in use in places such as FL and in parts of the Alley prior to then. The An/CPS-9 radar we had at Whiteman AFB when I was there had originally been in place in FL until coming to MO when the WSR-57's went in in FL.

Steve