2008 a lot like 2002 so far

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:48 am

2002 had 3 hurricane
2008 so far has 3 hurricanes

2002 had a lot of tropical storms
2008 has a large number of tropical storms to hurricanes.

2002 had a lot of landfalls
2008 has a lot of landfalls

Isidore of 2002 was a cat4 landfall. So this is not discounting Gusav hitting the United states as one. So if it did it would not change the trend of 2002 and 2008.

Also Dolly hit land as a cat1-2 and Lili did so also. Also 2002 and 2008 have the same names besides Lili, Isidore.

Interesting to say the least.
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#2 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:57 am

However lets have a look at the total numbers by August 27th:

2002: 3/0/0
2008: 7/3/1

Sorry but this season is way more active then 2002 thus far, more majors, more hurricanes and more tropical storms as well...

IF the season ended after Gudtav then you'd have a point but I think come mid October I any comprasions to 2002 will be rather daft IMO...lets also consider the ACE is only a little below 2002's already.

However funnily enough Lili 2002 is my chosen storm to compare to Gustav :P
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#3 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:19 am

Terrible comparison...the season isn't even OVER with yet.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:28 am

I don't see why would you compare 2008 to 2002. It's not sane to compare less than half of a season with an entire season.

I would say, a lot like 2003:

2003: August 27: 6/3/0
2008: August 27: 7/3/1

2003 had 8 tropical storms that didn't make it to hurricane status.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#5 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:27 pm

By July 1997 we had Grace, then...nothing. Season canceled.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:58 pm

I said so far. Of course it could add more hurricanes and major hurricanes. IF Gustav becomes a cat3 to become the second Majar, then we see 5 tropical storms it still could be just like it.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#7 Postby Ad Novoxium » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:04 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:By July 1997 we had Grace, then...nothing. Season canceled.

Whaa?
58815 10/14/1997 M= 4 8 SNBR=1233 GRACE XING=0 L
58820 10/14*0000000 0 0*0000000 0 0*2000687 30 1002E2030698 30 1001*
58825 10/15*2030696 35 999E2030689 35 999E2060680 40 999E2080665 40 999*
58830 10/16*2120644 40 999*2160616 35 1000*2240588 35 1000*2360562 35 1001*
58835 10/17*2400536 35 1002*2430505 35 1003*2450473 30 1004E0000000 0 0*
58840 TS
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#8 Postby HurricaneRobert » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:52 pm

Nevermind, I was looking at someone's screwing with Wikipedia, not hurdat.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#9 Postby Ad Novoxium » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:30 am

HurricaneRobert wrote:Nevermind, I was looking at someone's screwing with Wikipedia, not hurdat.

I reverted it back to normal.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#10 Postby Category 5 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:45 am

Matt did you do ANY research before you posted this? I Don't know where to begin.

Rechecking Isidores best track would be a good start.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:01 am

Category 5 wrote:Matt did you do ANY research before you posted this? I Don't know where to begin.

Rechecking Isidores best track would be a good start.



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

110 knots

Most of this is from what I remember from 2002.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#12 Postby Category 5 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:02 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Category 5 wrote:Matt did you do ANY research before you posted this? I Don't know where to begin.

Rechecking Isidores best track would be a good start.



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

110 knots

Most of this is from what I remember from 2002.


110kts is a cat 3.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#13 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:04 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Isidore of 2002 was a cat4 landfall.


No it wasn't.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:06 am

Category 5 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Category 5 wrote:Matt did you do ANY research before you posted this? I Don't know where to begin.

Rechecking Isidores best track would be a good start.



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

110 knots

Most of this is from what I remember from 2002.


110kts is a cat 3.



Ok, It was a stupid mistake. I thought it was close to a cat4 and it would of been if it was not for that southward turn.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#15 Postby Category 5 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:14 am

Now, to the next flaw. We're more then likely going to blow away 2002 in every statistical Category, heck, we already are. We have doubled the amount of storms 2002 had at this date (and we'll certainly get well past 12), damage in the U.S is passed that in 2002 most likely (Dolly and Fay alone probably caused more then Isidore and Lili). Fatalities will be surpassed (Possibly by Gustav alone). We've already had something 2002 failed to produce (A long tracker), and all this is just off the top of my head.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#16 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:17 am

This is a terrible comparison... 2002 didn't have the FIRST hurricane until September 11th. We've had 3 already and still 2 weeks til that date.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:37 am

Category 5 wrote:Now, to the next flaw. We're more then likely going to blow away 2002 in every statistical Category, heck, we already are. We have doubled the amount of storms 2002 had at this date (and we'll certainly get well past 12), damage in the U.S is passed that in 2002 most likely (Dolly and Fay alone probably caused more then Isidore and Lili). Fatalities will be surpassed (Possibly by Gustav alone). We've already had something 2002 failed to produce (A long tracker), and all this is just off the top of my head.



Kyle was a long tracker. Also this post was made to show if the season ended now that they would be some what close...I was not really thinking it through when I made it, I'm sorry.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#18 Postby Ad Novoxium » Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:47 am

If you ask me, there are more comparisons between 08 and 96 than there are between 02 and 08. For 08 and 96:

-Both years had a "Hurricane Bertha" that became the furthest east a storm formed before August, both lasted a long time, and both reached Cat. 3 peaks.
-Both years had a "Hurricane Dolly" that formed in the northwest Caribbean, made landfall on the Yucatan, and both made landfall as hurricanes in nearly the same spot, albeit different strengths.
-Both seasons had their "G" storm in the last days of August.
-Fran and Fay had similar direct death tolls (26 in Fran, 29 in Fay), and both were long-lived storms (though the intensities do not match).

Or how about 08 and 90?

-The order of storms in 90 went like this: T.S. Arthur, Hurricane Bertha, T.S. Cesar, Hurricane Diana, T.S. Edouard, T.S. Fran, Hurricane Gustav. Yes, excluding names, this is the same order as 08.
-Both Berthas were hurricanes that came near Bermuda. Different intensities.
-Cesar and Cristobal both had minimum pressures of 1000 mbar. Cristobal, however, had 65 mph winds while Cesar only had 40.
-Both Diana and Dolly formed in the west Caribbean, hit the Yucatan as tropical storms, and then hit land again, in both cases as Category 2s.
-Both Hurricane Gustavs formed on August 25, and reached hurricane intensity on August 26.

Differences:

-Edouard in 08 formed next to the Gulf Coast. Edouard in 90 formed in Vince territory.
-Fran formed in the Central Atlantic, and dissipated near Venezuela. Fay dissipated over the US.
-90, by this time, had an active H storm (Hortense). We're close to it, but not there yet.

And 08 and 84 have so many differences. In fact, the only similarities are:
-Cesar and Cristobal both formed off the East Coast, and
-Both Edouards formed in the Gulf of Mexico. 08's, however, made landfall.

So if you ask me, 2008 more closely resembles 90 than 02.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#19 Postby Category 5 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Category 5 wrote:Now, to the next flaw. We're more then likely going to blow away 2002 in every statistical Category, heck, we already are. We have doubled the amount of storms 2002 had at this date (and we'll certainly get well past 12), damage in the U.S is passed that in 2002 most likely (Dolly and Fay alone probably caused more then Isidore and Lili). Fatalities will be surpassed (Possibly by Gustav alone). We've already had something 2002 failed to produce (A long tracker), and all this is just off the top of my head.



Kyle was a long tracker. Also this post was made to show if the season ended now that they would be some what close...I was not really thinking it through when I made it, I'm sorry.


Yes but it's still August. And Kyle was not a long track Cave Verde Hurricane.
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Re: 2008 a lot like 2002 so far

#20 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:25 am

I'm confused. I thought long-trackers included most CV storms but didn't mean the same thing.
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