http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm
Things are changing to more favorable they say.
Read special features section of 2:05 Discussion of TPC
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- cycloneye
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Read special features section of 2:05 Discussion of TPC
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Short term (thu-fri)...big story is trough with weak low approaching
from the Bahamas. 06z model runs still in pretty good agreement of
carrying a low through the straits with its associated trough across
the peninsula. 12z models running late but 12z mesoeta still
continues this trend. Visible satellite imagery looks more impressive
than it did 24 hours ago...but most of the convection appears to be
developing in response to a middle level vorticity maximum rather than the actual
surface center. With surface low pressure to move south of the forecast area...
would expect northeast winds to pick up tonight and become more
easterly tomorrow. Going to keep persistence for now with most
concentrated rainfall falling in the southern part of the forecast area as the
system moves across. Satellite trends would suggest much of the forecast area
getting into the heavier precipitation...but we've seen flare-ups before
only to weaken again. Later shifts may need to update if the northern
burst holds together.
from the Bahamas. 06z model runs still in pretty good agreement of
carrying a low through the straits with its associated trough across
the peninsula. 12z models running late but 12z mesoeta still
continues this trend. Visible satellite imagery looks more impressive
than it did 24 hours ago...but most of the convection appears to be
developing in response to a middle level vorticity maximum rather than the actual
surface center. With surface low pressure to move south of the forecast area...
would expect northeast winds to pick up tonight and become more
easterly tomorrow. Going to keep persistence for now with most
concentrated rainfall falling in the southern part of the forecast area as the
system moves across. Satellite trends would suggest much of the forecast area
getting into the heavier precipitation...but we've seen flare-ups before
only to weaken again. Later shifts may need to update if the northern
burst holds together.
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