More GOM Tropical Development

[KatDaddy]

From Accu-Weather:

A deep upper-level trough strengthening over eastern Canada and across the eastern United States is causing the westerly wind flow to drop unusually far south into the Gulf of Mexico and over the southwestern Atlantic. This has forced the Atlantic high pressure area well to the south into the Straits of Florida and across the southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper-level trough has caused a weakness in the Atlantic high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This weakness will support shower and thunderstorm development over the south-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. So, we will be keeping an eye on activity that might start to show up there.

[Mecklenburg]

From Accu-Weather:

A deep upper-level trough strengthening over eastern Canada and across the eastern United States is causing the westerly wind flow to drop unusually far south into the Gulf of Mexico and over the southwestern Atlantic. This has forced the Atlantic high pressure area well to the south into the Straits of Florida and across the southern Gulf of Mexico. The upper-level trough has caused a weakness in the Atlantic high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This weakness will support shower and thunderstorm development over the south-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. So, we will be keeping an eye on activity that might start to show up there.

quite interesting, does it have any model supports?

[KatDaddy]

Not that I have seen but you can see the trough on satellite pushing toward the GOM. Not unlike last week but hopefully nothing will come of it.

[KatDaddy]

From the 8:05AM Tropical Disco:

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA
TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N AND E OF 90W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 96W-99W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has about the same chance at developing within the next 48 hours as a 500 foot high tsunumi has of hitting Florida today. I say that is one in 100,000,000 and possibly less. But that is just my option of it at the moment.

[Emmett_Brown]

Surf Temp at Clearwater Beach is 92... Anything that go going in the eastern gulf could pop quickly. Granted not much there at the moment, but the trough will be hanging around there this weekend.

[Mecklenburg]

Surf Temp at Clearwater Beach is 92... Anything that go going in the eastern gulf could pop quickly. Granted not much there at the moment, but the trough will be hanging around there this weekend.

uh-uh... that's bad news for the GOM states...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surf Temp at Clearwater Beach is 92... Anything that go going in the eastern gulf could pop quickly. Granted not much there at the moment, but the trough will be hanging around there this weekend.

uh-uh... that's bad news for the GOM states...

Maybe, but it is normal for parts of the gulf to get this hot. It has more to do with dry air and shear to get a cyclone.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sometimes a trough this strong and South can kick start the Atlantic. At least that is what I've read in past years. As the Models are starting to show cyclogenisis mid to late month. Have to wait and see.

[Honeyko]

Surf Temp at Clearwater Beach is 92... Anything that go going in the eastern gulf could pop quickly.

Agreed. "Quickly" is the watch-word too, for the August to mid-September stretch, concerning things that develop in the west-end. (Caveat: Storms that develop from old frontal boundaries usually take their jolly sweet time winding up. ...unless they have a southeast feed, then all bets are off.)

[Mecklenburg]

Sometimes a trough this strong and South can kick start the Atlantic. At least that is what I've read in past years. As the Models are starting to show cyclogenisis mid to late month. Have to wait and see.

i think hurricane humberto in 2007 started from this...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think so.


Quiet week, GFS and Canadian suggest African wave toward the end of next week, far from the Gulf, and the Canadian has a deep cyclone forming on a front off the mid-Atlantic, but the Gulf looks pretty quiet.


I'm hoping the little disturbance on the periphery of the ridge dropping into Louisiana comes back Westward to my lawn, but it certainly doesn't have time to become anything tropical.

[micktooth]

Besides some words, what else is Accuweather or anyone else offering up to suggest tropical development in the Gulf? Do you think we read too much into certain sentences sometimes? Not saying it won't happen, but I don't want to be Chicken Little either.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't consider myself to be someone who is inherently pessimistic on the chances of TC development (or would that make me not an optimist), that is, unlike a couple of people, I don't automatically say, no way, nothing will develop.


I was on the Edouard bandwagon fairly early, and I incorrectly predicted 94L would be upgraded to an invest 3 times in 4 days before it finally became Dolly.

If I think there is a chance of development, I'll say so.


And I don't see what anyone could be getting excited about right now. There is nothing there. Yes, there is a frontal trough in the general vicinity, but a couple of models did predict something from about 4 days out with Edouard, and then a big cluster of storms developed.


Now, if the area of storms coming off Louisiana was coming off Georgia and Florida, and starting to turn back West, it might be something to watch. But even if it holds together, it'll be into Texas before it can do anything.


I always keep an eye on the Gulf when a front is close enough to produce West winds, as it means a better chance of surface convergence, but as of now, I don't see anything in the next few days.

In my humble and amateur opinion.

[tailgater]

It's August with a front entering the 85 degree + waters of the GOM, of course it has to be watched closely. The models can't predict them all(or can they).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[HURAKAN]

NGOM and East Coast should be watched, just in case. Furthermore, there's not much else to keep an eye on!

[Ed Mahmoud]

NGOM and East Coast should be watched, just in case. Furthermore, there's not much else to keep an eye on!

Well, the Canadian develops a couple of cyclones on the front off the mid-Atlantic, which should be interesting to watch. The second one looks like either a winter Nor'Easter or maybe a sub-tropical storm.




Of course, it is the Canadian...

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW- nada as far as surface convergence, even with a West wind

Other than a bit of upper divergence near Florida and in the base of the Bay of Campeche, most of the Gulf has upper convergence.

No pre-existing low level vorticity anywhere in the Gulf...

If that frontal trough can linger long enough, who knows. But nothing happening anytime soon. And I can't recall a recent TC development that no model, or at least Joe Bastardi, didn't start spotting at least 2 or 3 days in advance.


Bastardi, the NAM and the Canadian were all on Edoaurd several days in advance.



Back to the Canadian and its apparent mondo-intense sub-tropical storm off the East Coast on the 0Z run. Not as intense, but it is getting some model support from the 12Z GFS. Not sure at all whether it will be purely frontal, or develop some warm core properties.

[canetracker]

Not saying anything will come of it, but we do have some sort of convergence. Besides, their is nothing else to watch right now.

Does anyone ever remember a year that we had fronts making it this far south in August???

[GeneratorPower]

Can't remember a year like this. It was BEAUTIFUL this morning in north Alabama, with temps in the low 70s through about 10am. Dry and breezy. Feels like fall in the middle of summer!