CSU August Update=12/7/4 August and beyond / 17/9/5 overall

[vacanechaser]

anyone know about what time the team will release the new update today??? usually it has been posted by now, or even in the news... just wondering


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

By 10-10:30 AM EDT.At least that was the time the june update came out.

[vacanechaser]

thank you sir... i have been searching like a mad man looking for it,... lol.. when i am should be working... lol... i will, for now, leave the refresh button alone...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Jesse,you made this thread as a question one,but when the outlooks is released it will be converted into the August Phil Klobzbach /Dr Gray Update thread.

[vacanechaser]

Jesse,you made this thread as a question one,but when the outlook is released it will be converted into the August Phil Klobzbach /Dr Gray Update thread.

sounds good to me...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ug2008.pdf



17/9/5 for all the season and 12/7/4 on August and beyond is what Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr William Gray have in this August Update.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Doesn't surprise me, it is just the first week of August and we are at 5;
august and september can easily churn out 10 and then 2 by october.

[cycloneye]

In the June update they had 15/8/4 so,its an increase.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard all formed in a very short time
and right after each other indicative of a very active basin, more active
than originally foreseen in June.

[cycloneye]

Wow,12/7/4 for the rest of the season is a lot of activity.Lets see if any october surprise (El Nino) comes and shuts down the numbers,or it becomes hyperactive all the way thru November.

[KWT]

More likely to see a return to La nina then a el Nino IMO at the present moment though the neutral conditions looks odds on...

Anyway this forecast really shouldn't be all that surprising, we've just a fairly active July and august just pumped out our 5th storm so 11 more storms for the rest of the season is easily possible in good conditions for the peak of the season.

IF we get those numbers it pretty much makes the odds of a hyperactive season in terms of ACE odds on.

[cycloneye]

Here are two of the analog years that the Colorado State University team says looks like 2008,and those are 1996 and 1998.

[HURAKAN]

Hold on tight, the ride is going to be turbulent. If you like to track cyclones in the Atlantic there are few years better than 1996 and 1998. Of course, a lot of destruction, which is the bad part.

Note: If the analog years really materialize, Florida will be almost in the clear from real danger.

[cycloneye]

Not that will happen again,but in 1996 Hortense made landfall here in Puerto Rico and in 1998 Georges made landfall.For all who like to track storms and hurricanes as Sandy said,it will be a good experience to follow them track harmless away from any landmass and it looks like they will be plenty.

[hurricanetrack]

Did I not read that 1926 and 1998 were in the Analogs?

1926 was the Great Miami Hurricane and 1998 there was Georges. Florida was not spared in those years.

Check it out on our tracking archives. You can go in and select the year and then the cyclone that you want to see displayed. Just another nifty resource- and you can mouse over the icons to get more info too.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/JavaHist/

[Category 5]

Check it out on our tracking archives. You can go in and select the year and then the cyclone that you want to see displayed. Just another nifty resource- and you can mouse over the icons to get more info too.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/JavaHist/

I know what I'll be doing all week.

I haven't checked that page out in a while, those who haven't should, it's a really fun tool.

[KWT]

I still think 1989 is possibly the best match we have at the moment though 1996 seems pretty decent as well.

Still from the sounds of it we've still got plenty of activity to get through yet...

[HURAKAN]

Did I not read that 1926 and 1998 were in the Analogs?

1926 was the Great Miami Hurricane and 1998 there was Georges. Florida was not spared in those years.

Check it out on our tracking archives. You can go in and select the year and then the cyclone that you want to see displayed. Just another nifty resource- and you can mouse over the icons to get more info too.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/JavaHist/

I was talking about 1996 and 1998, didn't read the article to learn about 1926.

If the 1926 hurricane occurs today the damage in South Florida would dwarf Katrina's in the Gulf coast.

[hurricanetrack]

You are correct. We don't need any 1926 type hurricanes at all. Even though I like to be in them and research them, take obs during them, etc. etc., I just assume never have to deal with another Great Miami hurricane. Very bad.

On another note- and this could make for another thread, TSR shows 18/10/4 in their August update.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm still going with 13 named storms for this season. Why because the SAL has strengthen big time meaning a stronger Azores high, with this being so I expect the waves to move over 20 knots over the MDR, with heavy SAL. I also see a TUTT like 2000. So This is how I feel. I expect maybe one or two more this month. But that won't be for another few weeks.