July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
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July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING JULY WAS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...THREE
TROPICAL STORMS FORMING DURING THE MONTH. TWO OF THESE BECAME
HURRICANES...AND ONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON AVERAGE...ONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMS DURING JULY AND A HURRICANE ONLY FORMS ABOUT
EVERY OTHER JULY. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...
JULY WAS THE THIRD MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD...BEHIND 2005 AND 1916.
BERTHA DEVELOPED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA ON 1 JULY. THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECAME ORGANIZED
AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 3 JULY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT
TIME LATER WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA'S
STRENGTH CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVED
QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE ON 6 JULY...
BERTHA STRENGTHENED AS IT REACHED WARMER WATERS...AND IT BECAME A
HURRICANE EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 MPH...CATEGORY THREE
STRENGTH...BY EARLY ON 8 JULY. LATER THAT DAY...INCREASED SHEAR
CAUSED BERTHA TO WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION ON 9 JULY
AS THE SHEAR DECREASED. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BERTHA
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
12-13 JULY...BERTHA STALLED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
THE NEXT DAY THE CYCLONE BEGAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH
THE CENTER PASSING ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER PASSING
BERMUDA...BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED SLOWED DOWN AGAIN AND THE STORM
TURNED EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. BERTHA ACCELERATED
NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN ON 18 JULY.
BERTHA PASSED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON 20 JULY.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ICELAND WHERE
IT MERGED WITH A LARGER LOWER PRESSURE AREA.
BERTHA BROUGHT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA DURING ITS
CLOSE PASSAGE ON THE 14TH. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE
EXPERIENCED AT SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ON BERMUDA...HOWEVER ONLY
MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. BERTHA'S 17 DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAKES IT THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
RECORD.
CRISTOBAL FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 18 JULY ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ON 19 JULY
ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CRISTOBAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE
COAST ESCAPED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. CRISTOBAL MOVED
AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AND THEN
REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 MPH ON 21 JULY ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL THEN MOVED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ON 23 JULY ABOUT 380 MILES
EAST OF HALIFAX.
DOLLY ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM AFRICA ON 11
JULY. THE SYSTEM MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND GENERATED A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 13
JULY. THE LOW MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON 17 JULY. AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSED THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IT HAD A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS...BUT NO DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ON 20 JULY...WHEN
THE SYSTEM REACHED THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER FORMED AND TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS BORN ABOUT
300 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THE STORM MOVED NORTHWESTWARD
AND TEMPORARILY BECAME DISORGANIZED WHILE ITS CENTER WAS REFORMING
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOLLY REORGANIZED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 JULY AND HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. ON 22 JULY THE CYCLONE TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. DOLLY
SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 100
MPH ON 23 JULY SHORTLY BEFORE ITS EYE MADE LANDFALL ON SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND TEXAS...A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD. AFTER
LANDFALL THE CYCLONE STEADILY WEAKENED. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 24 JULY AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT
CROSSED THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHILE CONTINUING TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS
ALONG ITS PATH. DOLLY'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON 25 JULY BUT ITS REMNANTS ALOFT MOVED OVER NEW
MEXICO ON 26-27 JULY WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THE
SYSTEM LOST ITS IDENTITY AS IT APPROACHED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
ON 28 JULY. ONE PERSON DROWNED IN ROUGH SURF IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE TOTALS RANGE FROM 750 MILLION TO 1
BILLION DOLLARS.
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH BERTHA 3 JUL - 20 JUL 120 *
TS CRISTOBAL 19 JUL - 23 JUL 65
H DOLLY 20 JUL - 25 JUL 100 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH DENOTES MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/BLAKE/BROWN/PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tw ... _jul.shtml?
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING JULY WAS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...THREE
TROPICAL STORMS FORMING DURING THE MONTH. TWO OF THESE BECAME
HURRICANES...AND ONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON AVERAGE...ONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMS DURING JULY AND A HURRICANE ONLY FORMS ABOUT
EVERY OTHER JULY. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...
JULY WAS THE THIRD MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD...BEHIND 2005 AND 1916.
BERTHA DEVELOPED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA ON 1 JULY. THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECAME ORGANIZED
AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 3 JULY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT
TIME LATER WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA'S
STRENGTH CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVED
QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE ON 6 JULY...
BERTHA STRENGTHENED AS IT REACHED WARMER WATERS...AND IT BECAME A
HURRICANE EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 MPH...CATEGORY THREE
STRENGTH...BY EARLY ON 8 JULY. LATER THAT DAY...INCREASED SHEAR
CAUSED BERTHA TO WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION ON 9 JULY
AS THE SHEAR DECREASED. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BERTHA
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
12-13 JULY...BERTHA STALLED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
THE NEXT DAY THE CYCLONE BEGAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH
THE CENTER PASSING ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER PASSING
BERMUDA...BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED SLOWED DOWN AGAIN AND THE STORM
TURNED EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. BERTHA ACCELERATED
NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN ON 18 JULY.
BERTHA PASSED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON 20 JULY.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ICELAND WHERE
IT MERGED WITH A LARGER LOWER PRESSURE AREA.
BERTHA BROUGHT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA DURING ITS
CLOSE PASSAGE ON THE 14TH. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE
EXPERIENCED AT SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ON BERMUDA...HOWEVER ONLY
MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. BERTHA'S 17 DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAKES IT THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
RECORD.
CRISTOBAL FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 18 JULY ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ON 19 JULY
ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CRISTOBAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE
COAST ESCAPED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. CRISTOBAL MOVED
AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AND THEN
REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 MPH ON 21 JULY ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL THEN MOVED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ON 23 JULY ABOUT 380 MILES
EAST OF HALIFAX.
DOLLY ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM AFRICA ON 11
JULY. THE SYSTEM MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND GENERATED A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 13
JULY. THE LOW MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON 17 JULY. AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSED THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IT HAD A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS...BUT NO DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ON 20 JULY...WHEN
THE SYSTEM REACHED THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER FORMED AND TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS BORN ABOUT
300 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THE STORM MOVED NORTHWESTWARD
AND TEMPORARILY BECAME DISORGANIZED WHILE ITS CENTER WAS REFORMING
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOLLY REORGANIZED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 JULY AND HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. ON 22 JULY THE CYCLONE TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. DOLLY
SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 100
MPH ON 23 JULY SHORTLY BEFORE ITS EYE MADE LANDFALL ON SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND TEXAS...A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD. AFTER
LANDFALL THE CYCLONE STEADILY WEAKENED. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 24 JULY AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT
CROSSED THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHILE CONTINUING TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS
ALONG ITS PATH. DOLLY'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON 25 JULY BUT ITS REMNANTS ALOFT MOVED OVER NEW
MEXICO ON 26-27 JULY WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THE
SYSTEM LOST ITS IDENTITY AS IT APPROACHED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
ON 28 JULY. ONE PERSON DROWNED IN ROUGH SURF IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE TOTALS RANGE FROM 750 MILLION TO 1
BILLION DOLLARS.
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH BERTHA 3 JUL - 20 JUL 120 *
TS CRISTOBAL 19 JUL - 23 JUL 65
H DOLLY 20 JUL - 25 JUL 100 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH DENOTES MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/BLAKE/BROWN/PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tw ... _jul.shtml?
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- Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: July NHC Summary
cycloneye wrote:000
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING JULY WAS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...THREE
TROPICAL STORMS FORMING DURING THE MONTH. TWO OF THESE BECAME
HURRICANES...AND ONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON AVERAGE...ONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMS DURING JULY AND A HURRICANE ONLY FORMS ABOUT
EVERY OTHER JULY.
BERTHA DEVELOPED FROM A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA ON 1 JULY. THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECAME ORGANIZED
AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY ON 3 JULY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM A SHORT
TIME LATER WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA'S
STRENGTH CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVED
QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS. LATE ON 6 JULY...
BERTHA STRENGTHENED AS IT REACHED WARMER WATERS...AND IT BECAME A
HURRICANE EARLY THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. BERTHA TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 MPH...CATEGORY THREE
STRENGTH...BY EARLY ON 8 JULY. LATER THAT DAY...INCREASED SHEAR
CAUSED BERTHA TO WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION ON 9 JULY
AS THE SHEAR DECREASED. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BERTHA
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
12-13 JULY...BERTHA STALLED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
THE NEXT DAY THE CYCLONE BEGAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH
THE CENTER PASSING ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER PASSING
BERMUDA...BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED SLOWED DOWN AGAIN AND THE STORM
TURNED EASTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. BERTHA ACCELERATED
NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN ON 18 JULY.
BERTHA PASSED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON 20 JULY.
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ICELAND WHERE
IT MERGED WITH A LARGER LOWER PRESSURE AREA.
BERTHA BROUGHT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA DURING ITS
CLOSE PASSAGE ON THE 14TH. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WERE
EXPERIENCED AT SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS ON BERMUDA...HOWEVER ONLY
MINOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. BERTHA'S 17 DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAKES IT THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
RECORD.
CRISTOBAL FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 18 JULY ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ON 19 JULY
ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CRISTOBAL MOVED NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE
COAST ESCAPED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. CRISTOBAL MOVED
AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AND THEN
REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 65 MPH ON 21 JULY ABOUT 725 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL THEN MOVED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ON 23 JULY ABOUT 380 MILES
EAST OF HALIFAX.
DOLLY ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED FROM AFRICA ON 11
JULY. THE SYSTEM MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND GENERATED A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 13
JULY. THE LOW MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND CROSSED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY ON 17 JULY. AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVERSED THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IT HAD A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN
SQUALLS...BUT NO DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ON 20 JULY...WHEN
THE SYSTEM REACHED THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER FORMED AND TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS BORN ABOUT
300 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THE STORM MOVED NORTHWESTWARD
AND TEMPORARILY BECAME DISORGANIZED WHILE ITS CENTER WAS REFORMING
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOLLY REORGANIZED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 21 JULY AND HEADED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. ON 22 JULY THE CYCLONE TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. DOLLY
SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 100
MPH ON 23 JULY SHORTLY BEFORE ITS EYE MADE LANDFALL ON SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND TEXAS...A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD. AFTER
LANDFALL THE CYCLONE STEADILY WEAKENED. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 24 JULY AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THAT DAY AS IT
CROSSED THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...WHILE CONTINUING TO DUMP HEAVY RAINS
ALONG ITS PATH. DOLLY'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON 25 JULY BUT ITS REMNANTS ALOFT MOVED OVER NEW
MEXICO ON 26-27 JULY WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THE
SYSTEM LOST ITS IDENTITY AS IT APPROACHED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
ON 28 JULY. ONE PERSON DROWNED IN ROUGH SURF IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PRELIMINARY DAMAGE TOTALS RANGE FROM 750 MILLION TO 1
BILLION DOLLARS.
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH BERTHA 3 JUL - 20 JUL 120 *
TS CRISTOBAL 19 JUL - 23 JUL 65
H DOLLY 20 JUL - 25 JUL 100 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MH DENOTES MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN/BLAKE/BROWN/PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tw ... _jul.shtml?
IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...
JULY WAS THE THIRD MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD...BEHIND 2005 AND 1916.





DUNK YOU VERY MUCH July 2008 would say the ESPN basketball commentators, it's a poster dunk for a beginning my friend only in JULY and without counted the tons of invests and waves lows who have fizzled

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Well can't argue with the ACE its very impressive indeed, I would think that in itself would argue very strongly for a much above average season in terms of ACE, I don't think it will quite keep up that very fast rate (top 3) but I suspect we will keep close tothe top 10 throughout the season...
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- cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
KWT wrote:Well can't argue with the ACE its very impressive indeed, I would think that in itself would argue very strongly for a much above average season in terms of ACE, I don't think it will quite keep up that very fast rate (top 3) but I suspect we will keep close tothe top 10 throughout the season...
My ACE number is 124 for the whole season,but it may go higher than that if 2008 can get some longtrackers.
The season so far has=37.5125
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- wxman57
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
Going back through 1950 and looking at seasons with 4 or more named storms by August 1st, the average season total is 11.9 named storms. Of course, the NHC is quite a bit more liberal at naming systems than they used to be, and we have satellite to catch those weak, short-lived systems now. Generally, an active July doesn't necessarily mean an overly-active season in terms of numbers.
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- cycloneye
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
wxman57 wrote:Going back through 1950 and looking at seasons with 4 or more named storms by August 1st, the average season total is 11.9 named storms. Of course, the NHC is quite a bit more liberal at naming systems than they used to be, and we have satellite to catch those weak, short-lived systems now. Generally, an active July doesn't necessarily mean an overly-active season in terms of numbers.
That is correct.Look for example at 1997 when four systems formed,but ended up with only 8 named systems.Caveat was, it had a strong El nino to contend.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
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- wxman57
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
To be fair, 1997 was a strong El Nino year. That pretty much cut off development by peak season. We're not looking at an El Nino in 2008.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
This July was really impressive. From Bertha to Dolly, we almost had no time to take a break.
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Re:
Stormcenter wrote:Every season is different and remember it's not how many that is important but actually how many make landfall as a major hurricane that is.
Uhh...
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) - No description is necessary to convey the impact
Tropical Storm Thelma (1991) - 7,000+ deaths via flooding and mudslides along elevated terrain in the Philippines
Hurricane Mitch (1998) - Category 1 landfall occurred in Honduras, and orographic lifting/ascent and low level convergence in the vicinity of a broad surface/monsoonal trough caused significant precip
Hurricane Marilyn (1995) - Strengthening Category 2 TC caused very extensive damage on Saint Thomas in the NE Caribbean
Hurricane Humberto (2007) - Rapidly intensifying TC mixed winds efficiently to the surface and made landfall as strong Category 1 TC (80 kt) in the Golden Triangle of southeast Texas
Don't forget these notable "twins", which primarily produced TS/Cat 1 winds in the majority of locations that did not experience the inner core.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/FRANCES/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/JEANNE/track.gif
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
cycloneye wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/tws/MIATWSAT_jul.shtml?
Of course, the usual suspects will present their claims that the season has been exceptionally lethargic, "slow", and "boring", despite contrary evidence and statistics.
It's an annual ritual!
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- Gustywind
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Re: Re:
MiamiensisWx wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Every season is different and remember it's not how many that is important but actually how many make landfall as a major hurricane that is.
Uhh...
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) - No description is necessary to convey the impact
Tropical Storm Thelma (1991) - 7,000+ deaths via flooding and mudslides along elevated terrain in the Philippines
Hurricane Mitch (1998) - Category 1 landfall occurred in Honduras, and orographic lifting/ascent and low level convergence in the vicinity of a broad surface/monsoonal trough caused significant precip
Hurricane Marilyn (1995) - Strengthening Category 2 TC caused very extensive damage on Saint Thomas in the NE Caribbean
Hurricane Humberto (2007) - Rapidly intensifying TC mixed winds efficiently to the surface and made landfall as strong Category 1 TC (80 kt) in the Golden Triangle of southeast Texas
Don't forget these notable "twins", which primarily produced TS/Cat 1 winds in the majority of locations that did not experience the inner core.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/FRANCES/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/JEANNE/track.gif
Hurricane Marylin correct but you can add LANDFALL first in GUADELOUPE as cat 1 case close to Basse-Terre near HUC location, tell him the nightmare with this lady


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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
Seasons impressive. Maybe we could come close to 2003 like season. Which is pretty good overall. I would say the cape verdes are looking kind of promising if the waves stay south.
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Re: Re:
MiamiensisWx wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Every season is different and remember it's not how many that is important but actually how many make landfall as a major hurricane that is.
Uhh...
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) - No description is necessary to convey the impact
Tropical Storm Thelma (1991) - 7,000+ deaths via flooding and mudslides along elevated terrain in the Philippines
Hurricane Mitch (1998) - Category 1 landfall occurred in Honduras, and orographic lifting/ascent and low level convergence in the vicinity of a broad surface/monsoonal trough caused significant precip
Hurricane Marilyn (1995) - Strengthening Category 2 TC caused very extensive damage on Saint Thomas in the NE Caribbean
Hurricane Humberto (2007) - Rapidly intensifying TC mixed winds efficiently to the surface and made landfall as strong Category 1 TC (80 kt) in the Golden Triangle of southeast Texas
Don't forget these notable "twins", which primarily produced TS/Cat 1 winds in the majority of locations that did not experience the inner core.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/FRANCES/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/JEANNE/track.gif
Marilyn will almost certainly be reclassified as a 3 once the reanalysis gets to it.
700mb winds were 112KT when it crossed St Croix. That is cat 3
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Re: Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:MiamiensisWx wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Every season is different and remember it's not how many that is important but actually how many make landfall as a major hurricane that is.
Uhh...
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) - No description is necessary to convey the impact
Tropical Storm Thelma (1991) - 7,000+ deaths via flooding and mudslides along elevated terrain in the Philippines
Hurricane Mitch (1998) - Category 1 landfall occurred in Honduras, and orographic lifting/ascent and low level convergence in the vicinity of a broad surface/monsoonal trough caused significant precip
Hurricane Marilyn (1995) - Strengthening Category 2 TC caused very extensive damage on Saint Thomas in the NE Caribbean
Hurricane Humberto (2007) - Rapidly intensifying TC mixed winds efficiently to the surface and made landfall as strong Category 1 TC (80 kt) in the Golden Triangle of southeast Texas
Don't forget these notable "twins", which primarily produced TS/Cat 1 winds in the majority of locations that did not experience the inner core.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/FRANCES/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/JEANNE/track.gif
Marilyn will almost certainly be reclassified as a 3 once the reanalysis gets to it.
700mb winds were 112KT when it crossed St Croix. That is cat 3
1995 has quite a few storms that should be increased based on flight-level reports:
Tropical Storm Barry (BT 60 kt) - should be upgraded to 70 kt and Hurricane Barry; FL winds 86 at 1500ft support 69
Hurricane Felix (BT 120 kt) - should be upgraded to 130 kt; FL winds 143 support 129
Hurricane Luis (BT 120 kt) - should be upgraded to 130 kt; FL winds 146 support 131
Hurricane Marilyn (BT 100 kt) - should be upgraded to 110 kt; FL winds 121 support 109
Hurricane Opal (BT 130 kt) - should be upgraded to 135 kt; FL winds 152 support 137
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: July NHC Summary=Third most active July on record
And remember Allison was a TS for like one day.Most of the damage was done by a TD,tropical cyclone.Shes got to rank right up there with the big time hurricanes as far as destruction goes.She killed people from Texas to up the East coast 

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