Tropical wave approaching the Windwards/Leewards Islands

[Gustywind]

Seems that a moderate tropical wave should bring numerous showers , sometimes big near the east carib this afternoon. Our pro met are calling for thunder and ligthnings too this morning , but hopefully in the latest weather forecast they seem less agressive, whereas we continue to monitor the situation without apparently any yellow alert (and that's a good news for all residents especially the tourists...) . Whereas, looking at the latest sat pic, convection is poping decently in vicinity of the Leewards islands and the Northern Windwards.
Thunder is rumbling in my area, nothing nasty or strong but tkanks to the shear inhibiting this system and it's "only " a moderate twave maybe crossing our area.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[RL3AO]

Only invests or developed storms go in Active Storms - All Basins. This thread should be in talkin' tropics.

[cycloneye]

We need here in Puerto Rico plenty of rain as the lake reservoirs are going down in a steady pace.So at least this wave will aliviate the semidrought we are experiencing.

[Gustywind]

Yeah my friend agree with you , hope the same for us a moderate drought is always persisting here. Let's pray that this twave could bring some rain in Guadeloupe and in Puerto Rico too. Very moist heavy weather , my body is sticky it's horrible too very hot here without breeze!!!

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
More convection is doting the East carib right now, passing showers are beginning, weather is grey sad and moist. The night can be much more active if convection amplifies, let's see what happens.....

[gatorcane]

This tropical wave is expected to impact Southern Florida over the weekend as noted in the latest NWS MIa Discussion:

AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL ALSO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRIER AIR
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SO HAVE LOWER THE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE
CAT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND...AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA...AND
INCREASE THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SO HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS
OVER THE CWA LATE THIS WEEKEND

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Gatorcane you're right , hope that you will experience some rain with this system too!

[abajan]

We had some thunder and rain from this wave today too, Gustywind. From my observations, August is when Barbados' rainy season starts to ramp up and thunderstorms (mostly from local daytime heating of the land) really bloom (and boom!).

[Gustywind]

Ok Tkanks Abajan my friend for all this good observations, some rain here, there's scattered and sheared cells... lightnings are approaching my area in Guadeloupe and thunder is slightly rumbling, but very moist air can be felt. All in all you're describing what i'm experiencing right now, nothing pretty bad but some wet weather conditions here. Glad to see that there's always an islanders giving some info here . I check you for everbody the conditions here in Guadeloupe:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Spared convection but present tonight...
2008.07.30 2300 UTC in GUADELOUPE
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)

Latest 7 PM (23) Jul 30 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) ENE 5 thunder
6 PM (22) Jul 30 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NE 6 thunder
5 PM (21) Jul 30 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ENE 9 thunder
4 PM (20) Jul 30 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ENE 12 thunder
3 PM (19) Jul 30 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 12
2 PM (18) Jul 30 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 14
1 PM (17) Jul 30 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) ENE 12
Noon (16) Jul 30 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) NE 14 mist
11 AM (15) Jul 30 87 (31) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NE 17

[Gustywind]

Note that we have lost 4mb in 5 hours meaning that the system is barely crossing the carib islands, down to 1011 hpa here at 4pm not so bad for a simple modest wave of july

Moisture in advance of approaching NE to SW-tilted tropical wave is moving in over Martinique up through Guadeloupe: http://www.weathercarib.com/

AWCA82 TJSJ 301948
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST WED JUL 30 2008

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

[Rincon]

Hi all! I am on the West Coast of Puerto Rico and not sure we are missing the rain as much as our neighbors in San Juan. We have been getting many afternoon storms from the Diurnal convection. Looking for this wave to cool us off a bit though! Love the board and happy to see neighbors posting. If you are interested i have a personal weather station (wireless Davis VP2) as well as a webcam for those inetersted in watching the weather on the west side of the island.

Here is the link and thanks to all on this board for keeping a close eye on the tropics

http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php


Rincon

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Rincon i will keep an eye on your weather....I tkink that our power is on the fact that maybe we're more vulnerable so it gave us hope and faith protection and all the very best, . Let's see if this season God can bless us .

[Sanibel]

See how the convection can suddenly flash back on after being sparse? This one looks like just a plain wave with no circulation or hint of formation. I like the flying saucer shape.

We are also slightly short on rain. We've had a persisting south wind showing that the Bermuda High is positioned east.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post from East Caribbean tropical wave thread

Nice cluster of storms, if somewhat disorganized, per satellite.

But one doesn't need a CIMSS shear map to see the shear blowing in from the direction of Jamaica right into this.

GFS, Euro, CMC and NoGaps are not enthusiastic about any possible TC development, GFS does seem to feed a bit of this wave into what appears to be an unusual out of season cool front that makes it into Florida, and maybe it'll enhance the rain action for Florida.

[Gustywind]

Note that we have lost 4mb in 5 hours meaning that the system is barely crossing the carib islands, down to 1011 hpa here at 4pm not so bad for a simple modest wave of july

Moisture in advance of approaching NE to SW-tilted tropical wave is moving in over Martinique up through Guadeloupe: http://www.weathercarib.com/

AWCA82 TJSJ 301948
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST WED JUL 30 2008

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N60W 10N63W 3N65W
MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE LESSER ANTILLES HAD A 3 MB DROP OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 57W-70W.
You understand that i was not too much generous but very kind... when i'm was speaking about the 4mb drop that we felt in Guadeloupe yesterday, and testifying how strong this wave were Hopefully tkanks to the shear and God blessed us for this time, hope that this blessed trend continues in the peak of the season that we're "dangerously" approaching....Stay safe carib islands for this time it was our rainy episode of the month ( the end especially) but be careful don't let you guard down ...tommoronw it's another day August 1st )...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[stevetampa33614]

No Circulation whatsoever. Nothin of interest here. just some good old needed T-storms.

[gatorcane]

Last night Steve Lyons indicated the flare up was due to the wave interacting with a trough axis just to the WNW of the wave.

But as the wave passed the trough axis, the downward, sinking of air would cause the T-storms and convection to diminish significantly.

It looks like that certainly did not happen as the convection is flaring alot this afternoon even more than when the wave was on the upward side of the trough axis.

[hial2]

Different year,different environment,different everything..but I believe this is the general area where hurricane Gilbert spun from..