Southwest Caribbean

[RL3AO]

Nimbus mentioned this in the GOM thread. Surface analysis shows a 1009mb low over NW South America.

[StormTracker]

Would that be considered connected or not connected to the ITCZ??? Looks connected to me, but I'm just a beginner at this!

[inda_iwall]

Doesnt really matter that much, the ITCZ can spawn convection that become a tropical cyclone. It just needs to become its own entity and break off. I am going to watch it, just because there is nothing else, and I can because of free will. Thats for all the people that jump on ya as soon as you may want to watch something they deem unwatchable

[RL3AO]

If it wants to develop it better go west and not north. The shear is 50kts a just to the NNE of the convection. You can really see it blow the tops from the clouds right now if you loop it.

[alan1961]

If it wants to develop it better go west and not north. The shear is 50kts a just to the NNE of the convection. You can really see it blow the tops from the clouds right now if you loop it.

yes very hostile conditions in the caribbean basin at the moment, just a few pockets of relative calm but few and far between but we've seen areas overcome this in the past and surprise everyone, probably just a convective explosion then get pulled to bits by the shear, but we'll see.

[Sanibel]

Probably ITCZ convection being sheared by that obvious jet blowing over the top of it. Never the less at this time of year watch it until it fades.

[Comanche]

What layer generally is considered the one that steers a TC??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

[srainhoutx]

What layer generally is considered the one that steers a TC??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

For weaker systems, look at the 200-700 mb level.

[RL3AO]

What layer generally is considered the one that steers a TC??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html

For weaker systems, look at the 200-700 mb level.

No, thats what you use for strong systems. For weak ones use 700-850 and 500-850.

[dixiebreeze]

Been watching this convection for a few days. It's steadily moving into the NW Caribbean. Something to watch I expect:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

[vbhoutex]

Definitely nothing at the surface at this point. Pressures are still normal in the area. I always watch something moving towards the GOM though and this is.

[Portastorm]

JB is suggesting some kind of trough split early next week with one piece heading into the Gulf. Should that verify and we have a wave like this entering the Gulf as well, could be the ingredients for more development. Will be interesting to see if any of the more credible models (CMC, no thank you!) develop anything.

[LaBreeze]

How long would it take the waters that Dolly churned up to settle down and heat up again to support development?

[RL3AO]

How long would it take the waters that Dolly churned up to settle down and heat up again to support development?

They are almost back to the pre-Dolly state. In a few days there will be no sign of the cool trail of water.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks

[Ivanhater]

Those waters off NW Florida are hot !

[dixiebreeze]

Could 99L be on the way:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[RL3AO]

Interesting to note that a tropical wave will be interacting with that area in the next 24-48 hours.


Still no signs of pressure dropping though. At least it looks interesting.

[Sanibel]

I think there's something to this one but it is moving over Nicaragua and no one will ever realize it.

[Chacor]

How long would it take the waters that Dolly churned up to settle down and heat up again to support development?

They are almost back to the pre-Dolly state. In a few days there will be no sign of the cool trail of water.

Uhm... that image is from 20 July.