"Tropics are very busy for the middle of July"

[jinftl]

This statement carries some weight when the forecasters at the NHC make it!!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING
AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[RL3AO]

Thats pretty scary. Although we didn't need them to say that to know they are busy. It will get scary when the Caribbean gets rid of all that shear.

[KWT]

Yep don't think you can disagree with that, we've got TS Bertha which has lasted a while, 94L close to having a closed low, the Florida system and also the area of deep convection in the SW Caribbean, to have that many disturbances you'd think you were in late August but we are only in mid July!

[ftolmsteen]

I haven't checked the tropics in one day and I find out there's all kind of things brewing in the Atlantic basin and it's only July. I'd say this could be quite the active season, but for all I know August could be really quiet, but I seriously doubt it. As said before, wait til the shear dies down.


Getcha Popcorn Ready!

[jinftl]

The NHC knows the media game as well...so they are aware those words could make it onto news channels, weather reports, etc...

[KWT]

Well I think if we get anything like this in early September then we are in for a very busy season!

[RL3AO]

Already been picked up on my some media.

http://www.tbnweekly.com/content_articles/071608_fpg-01.txt

[jinftl]

No S2K disclaimer needed from Forecasters Blake & Avila either!

[KWT]

Yeah I don't think it can be argued that the tropics are queit given the offical word!