Florida Front

[Sanibel]

A weak pinched front has settled over Florida giving us dark skies and rain in the morning which is a change from the daily sunny skies. These things can form into systems when they linger, though this one is a little close to Bertha and isn't that strong. I would say no formation, but you never know. The gray skies remind me of tropical season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good catch Sanibel. The front is producing heavy convection in the
eastern gulf just off Florida's west coast.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

If shear lessens, then something may try to form from all this intense convection,
it already looks to have a frontal Low spin to it.

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENT JUST E OF FL SHOULD SLOWLY
MIGRATE W ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THU AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI. THE SURFACE REFLECTION...A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDING OFF THE N FL
COAST...IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THU BEFORE SHIFTING W AS
WELL. LOOK FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE S OF BERTHA
AND SLOWLY BUILD W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 89W SHOULD PASS W THRU THE YUCATAN AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH WED.

The more time available, the better chance it has to develop. Lets see what happens but there is a lot of convection being generated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z CMC tries to spin something up off the west coast of FL = http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

hhhmmmm...... same topic is covered in the SE thread...

[HURAKAN]

Here we're discussing the possibilities in the Gulf related to the same trough.

[Aric Dunn]

Here we're discussing the possibilities in the Gulf related to the same trough.

ok.. thats fine i guess. but i put SE coast as a general area.. here is my origianl post..

"Well i figured i would add yet another thread since it is starting seem more plausible now that we may see a low form off the SE coast somewhere along the boundary that extends from the eastern gulf up to NC. also there is some support for this scenario from a few models. so things are really getting interesting now..

so there could be some sort of development really anywhere along the boundary,

latest gfs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

so go ahead post all the other models .. and starting tomorrow from the looks of it we should see some signs of this beginning to take place if its going to that is.."

['CaneFreak]

Well I sure am glad we have 2 threads that cover the same general topic

On a more serious note, I think this area does bare watching because this area is getting well vented by the ULL to the east of FL and as Aric pointed out in the SE COAST THREAD, once this area scoots off the east coast of FL things could get interesting. The ULL will be venting that area all the while the trough coming right now will probably be gone leaving this area behind. Just a thought.

[vacanechaser]

Well I sure am glad we have 2 threads that cover the same general topic

On a more serious note, I think this area does bare watching

well there you have it.... an official bear watch





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

12Z Euro has low pressure in the NE GOM in 72 hrs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008071312!!/

[KWT]

Interesting some models are toying with the idea of developing a weak low from the stalled frontal boundary. We will have to wait and see at this time of year anything in the gulf does need to be watched IMO.

[tailgater]

A little vorticity.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor4Z.html

[wxrockinjeff700]

This is the NO AFD from Sunday afternoon.
What's this all about?

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT SOME SORT OF UPPER LOW TO SPIN UP IN
THE EASTERN GULF IN THE MIDDLE OR LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BE IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES.

WITH REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF...A
SURFACE CIRCULATION FORMING ISN`T OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
NO REAL CONSISTENCY WITH DETAILS YET. FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT
OF AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES...HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TREND OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

[tailgater]

This is the area being talk about in the thread titled Fla front.

[wxrockinjeff700]

FROM NO AFD SUN AFTERNOON
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT SOME SORT OF UPPER LOW TO SPIN UP IN
THE EASTERN GULF IN THE MIDDLE OR LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
BE IN AN AREA OF WEAKNESS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES.

WITH REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT SITUATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF...A
SURFACE CIRCULATION FORMING ISN`T OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
NO REAL CONSISTENCY WITH DETAILS YET. FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT
OF AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES...HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH TREND OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

[Aric Dunn]

This is the area being talk about in the thread titled Fla front.

and SE coast

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Average winds here have been sustained at 15-20 mph with
gusts of 25-30 mph right along the west coast of Florida
and in exposed open areas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

PRESSURES FALLING Along Florida's West Coast, in the Tampa
Bay Area recording station: 1015 to 1012 mb or 30.00 to 29.88
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html


I will also add that the winds have been coming out of the
Southwest along Florida's west coast, it looks like something is trying to
form just west of Florida's coast.

Convection:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

Hopefully storm2k members from south florida can get some wind/pressure
data and we can analyze what is going on here.

As a member showed above, the 12Z EURO supports development in 72 hours.
Also the CMC supports a storm forming in 72 hours and landfalling along the
west coast/cedar Key before accelerating NE.

But there are several clusters, one further west, could the ridge
push it west or the trough pull it east???

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is a broad circulation over/near Florida right now. It is causing a lot of rain here in the Orlando area this evening...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tailgater]

Be careful this is the NAM(Not a miracle)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084l.gif