Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Vortex]

The GFS has consistently indicated the potential for low pressure to once again exit and form South or SW of the Cape Verde Island within the next 48 hours. This scenario has been backed by the last several runs. The main difference this time around is this system *may* track much further westward given the forecasted synoptics. In fact, the last several runs have have implied potential impacts on the northern leewards and possible the Bahamas in the long range.

07/08/2008 6Z GFS

48 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

120 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

192 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

00Z Ukmet also supports this idea


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

I guess GFS does something either with the wave that has just come off Africa or maybe even a wave just behind this one, either way there isn't much there at the moment.

[crownweather]

Yep, I noticed that convection with that disturbance near 20-30W Longitude has diminished over the last 12 hours. 850 mb vorticity does show some good vorticity in that area though. One other thing I noticed is that environmental conditions do improve west of 40W longitude, so I will be interested to see what happens. The GFS model has had a good track record with forming storms correctly this year.

[KatDaddy]

This one will track much farther W than Bertha and eventually become GOM problem but that is at least a week away.

[KWT]

Its certainly something to just keep an eye on given Bertha has formed from a Cape Verde wave, that shows that from now on this region is probably condusive enough to support some sort of tropical cyclone development and thus every wave needs to be watched.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This one will track much farther W than Bertha and eventually become GOM problem but that is at least a week away.

What makes you think that?

[Frank2]

What he said (asked)...

[boca]

The GFS 06z run tracks a wave to just east of the Bahamas turns it north then loses it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Their's nothing crossing the state of Florida into the GOM on this run.

[CourierPR]

This one will track much farther W than Bertha and eventually become GOM problem but that is at least a week away.

This reads like a forecast. Where's the disclaimer?

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_85v_su_loop.shtml
^^Shows the storm moving through the Caribbean and then up into the Gulf before finally making landfall in Texas^^

00z GFS - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_su_loop.shtml
^^Shows the storm eventually slamming into the northern part of Florida (a rare Jacksonville hit)^^

06z GFS - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_85v_su_loop.shtml
^^Shows the storm reaching the Bahamas (getting past 70W) and then curving out to sea^^

While it is interesting to look at these scenarios so far out, it needs to be remembered that what we are seeing now will likely not be the end result. I expect the potential path to change many more times with this disturbance. What IS interesting though is that all three of these GFS runs try to rapidly spin this system up as it approaches the islands, and the UKMET is also on board with this idea. If other models start buying into this too, then we will need to watch the situation very closely.

[boca]

00z GFS - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_85v_su_loop.shtml
^^Shows the storm eventually slamming into the northern part of Florida (a rare Jacksonville hit)^^

06z GFS - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_85v_su_loop.shtml
^^Shows the storm reaching the Bahamas (getting past 70W) and then curving out to sea^^

While it is interesting to look at these scenarios so far out, it needs to be remembered that what we are seeing now will likely not be the end result. I expect the potential path to change many more times with this disturbance. What IS interesting though is that both of these GFS runs try to rapidly spin this system up as it approaches the islands, and the UKMET is also on board with this idea. If other models start buying into this too, then we will need to watch the situation very closely.

I wonder if its the wave just on the coast of Africa or a wave still over Africa that their trying to latch on to.

[HouTXmetro]

I seriously doubt that anything forming that far out will reach the GOM.

[KWT]

Its hard to say because if it doesn't form then its going to track more westward then Bertha did. Big question as to whether the wave does anything at all though IMO.

[Sanibel]

Those runs show the Lows disappearing before they hit anything.

[Frank2]

...all we have to do is read the early thoughts on Bertha - especially that "head for the hills" comment, to know that the outcome is usually much different that any prediction...

Earlier today I was thinking about the disasterous 2005 Hurricane Rita evacuation, and, how most or all of the lives lost in the panic could have been saved, had the national and local media kept calm, and, realized that the Hurricane Katrina scenario was unlikely to be duplicated in an area much different than New Orleans...

True, Rita was just as powerful, but, the models were continually showing Rita as peaking in intensity and moving north of the Houston area before landfall, but, the local media seemed intent on playing up the disaster scenario as much as possible, instead of telling local residents that only Galveston Island would be affected in any significant way - so much human suffering could have been avoided, had the media kept control of their imagination...

Frank

[KatDaddy]

Sorry about that. Its Joe B's take on the tropical wave which he has discussed in his Big Dog videos. I tend to agree. Hopefull it will remain a tropical wave and head straight into Central America.

After re-reading my original post it does read like a forecast but that was not my intention.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those runs show the Lows disappearing before they hit anything.

True, but we all know how poorly the GFS does with storm strength. For instance, the model tried to depict Bertha as opening into a tropical wave many times, when in actuality she was strengthening into a major hurricane.

[canegrl04]

Those runs show the Lows disappearing before they hit anything.

True, but we all know how poorly the GFS does with storm strength. For instance, the model tried to depict Bertha as opening into a tropical wave many times, when in actuality she was strengthening into a major hurricane.

The GFS is good at forming something,but not very reliable after that

[Ed Mahmoud]

...all we have to do is read the early thoughts on Bertha - especially that "head for the hills" comment, to know that the outcome is usually much different that any prediction...

Earlier today I was thinking about the disasterous 2005 Hurricane Rita evacuation, and, how most or all of the lives lost in the panic could have been saved, had the national and local media kept calm, and, realized that the Hurricane Katrina scenario was unlikely to be duplicated in an area much different than New Orleans...

True, Rita was just as powerful, but, the models were continually showing Rita as peaking in intensity and moving north of the Houston area before landfall, but, the local media seemed intent on playing up the disaster scenario as much as possible, instead of telling local residents that only Galveston Island would be affected in any significant way - so much human suffering could have been avoided, had the media kept control of their imagination...

Frank

Evacuating disabled people from a well built senior citizens home in Bellaire, inland well beyond even the worst case storm surge, was a very bad idea. Even without renting a poorly maintained bus with an unlicensed driver.