Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

[Blown Away]

A major hurricane at this point would be devistating to the SFL economy. History repeats itself.
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/florida.htm

[wxman57]

The last time we were in the current pattern (warm AMO / cool PDO) south Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes in the 25 years from 1944-1969. I put together a web page around 2002 to illustrate how often south Florida might get hit in the coming decades - that was before the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

So how would the Florida economy take 1 major hit every 2 years for 25 years? What about the insurance industry there?

[KWT]

Yep that time had one major after another it seems, what I've noticed about that period is that whilst tropical storm numbers weren't all that high there were constant hits on land by major hurricanes, esp in Florida.

I also note that the period between 1926-1933 also had a very busy spell of powerful landfalling hurricanes.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Well aren't those statistics totally depressing.

~Beth~

[Blown Away]

The last time we were in the current pattern (warm AMO / cool PDO) south Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes in the 25 years from 1944-1969. I put together a web page around 2002 to illustrate how often south Florida might get hit in the coming decades - that was before the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

So how would the Florida economy take 1 major hit every 2 years for 25 years? What about the insurance industry there?

Charley, Jeanne, and Wilma were majors, so Fl has had 3 majors between 2004-2010. Based on his predictions, FL should be statistically safe from majors for the next few years.

[jinftl]

To answer the question posed, no, i don't think South Fla is 1 major hurricane away from total real estate collapse...as we have seen with disasters both natural (i.e., Katrina) and man-made (WTC on 9/11), Americans are resilient and recover in time. There will always be people drawn to the Florida lifestyle....the beaches, the climate, the many amenities for tourists and residents alike. Even now, the weak dollar is drawing international buyers for the multitude of high rise condos being built in downtown Miami....a weakened economy, even one resulting from a storm, will spell opportunity for some...which is how a free market economy should be.

[hial2]

The last time we were in the current pattern (warm AMO / cool PDO) south Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes in the 25 years from 1944-1969. I put together a web page around 2002 to illustrate how often south Florida might get hit in the coming decades - that was before the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

So how would the Florida economy take 1 major hit every 2 years for 25 years? What about the insurance industry there?

Charley, Jeanne, and Wilma were majors, so Fl has had 3 majors between 2004-2010. Based on his predictions, FL should be statistically safe from majors for the next few years.

For the sake of my family,friends and the state of Florida, I hope your 2010 prediction holds up!

[Squarethecircle]

The last time we were in the current pattern (warm AMO / cool PDO) south Florida was hit by 12 major hurricanes in the 25 years from 1944-1969. I put together a web page around 2002 to illustrate how often south Florida might get hit in the coming decades - that was before the 2004 and 2005 seasons:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

So how would the Florida economy take 1 major hit every 2 years for 25 years? What about the insurance industry there?

Charley, Jeanne, and Wilma were majors, so Fl has had 3 majors between 2004-2010. Based on his predictions, FL should be statistically safe from majors for the next few years.

Unfortunately, this is a logical fallacy: since we do not know we are out of it yet, we can assume that those previous events have no effect on today's events. Sorry.

[HurricaneRobert]

To answer the question posed, no, i don't think South Fla is 1 major hurricane away from total real estate collapse...as we have seen with disasters both natural (i.e., Katrina) and man-made (WTC on 9/11), Americans are resilient and recover in time. There will always be people drawn to the Florida lifestyle....the beaches, the climate, the many amenities for tourists and residents alike. Even now, the weak dollar is drawing international buyers for the multitude of high rise condos being built in downtown Miami....a weakened economy, even one resulting from a storm, will spell opportunity for some...which is how a free market economy should be.

The weak dollar is also driving the price of oil way up. The far-flung communities in Florida will hurt either way. In Florida it is very hard to tell where one major metro area ends and another one begins.

[Derek Ortt]

To answer the question posed, no, i don't think South Fla is 1 major hurricane away from total real estate collapse...as we have seen with disasters both natural (i.e., Katrina) and man-made (WTC on 9/11), Americans are resilient and recover in time. There will always be people drawn to the Florida lifestyle....the beaches, the climate, the many amenities for tourists and residents alike. Even now, the weak dollar is drawing international buyers for the multitude of high rise condos being built in downtown Miami....a weakened economy, even one resulting from a storm, will spell opportunity for some...which is how a free market economy should be.

yes, but we have not seen a cat 4 or 5 in the center of a major city

[hial2]

To answer the question posed, no, i don't think South Fla is 1 major hurricane away from total real estate collapse...as we have seen with disasters both natural (i.e., Katrina) and man-made (WTC on 9/11), Americans are resilient and recover in time. There will always be people drawn to the Florida lifestyle....the beaches, the climate, the many amenities for tourists and residents alike. Even now, the weak dollar is drawing international buyers for the multitude of high rise condos being built in downtown Miami....a weakened economy, even one resulting from a storm, will spell opportunity for some...which is how a free market economy should be.

The weak dollar is also driving the price of oil way up. The far-flung communities in Florida will hurt either way. In Florida it is very hard to tell where one major metro area ends and another one begins.

Home prices will no doubt go down to affordable 1999 levels levels. If anything is going to kill the state will be the stratospheric homeowners insurance rates and the major corporations (jobs) that will leave Florida once they realize that the financial advantages provided by the state are offset by the losses occurred by a storm. In my opinion,a major storm hitting Miami,Ft Lauderdale,West Palm Beach,Tampa or Jacksonville will severely cripple Florida,something akin to a major nuclear plant accident.

[jinftl]

I guess then it becomes a matter of assessing the risk and return of living in a certain place....a 1906-type earthquake in San Francisco today or the "Big One" in L.A., or the New Madrid Fault unleashing itself in the midwest, or even a terror attack in NYC or D.C....all possibilities as well as a Cat-5 making landfall on the Miami-Dade/Broward line.

The one thing Florida has going for it i think is that a huge part of the economy is tourism-based...as we have seen with New Orleans, make sure the French Quarter (granted, it did not flood) is up and running, and you get tourism revenue back. Miami has South Beach for starters...if the hotels and nightlife are up and running by the peak winter season, Latin American and European tourists will still be there...spending
Location location location...what could be Miami's undoing will also bring about its resurrection. No other location on the U.S. mainland has what Miami can offer without even having to try....an average high of 77 deg on Christmas Day. There is a huge, intangible economic value to that...

To answer the question posed, no, i don't think South Fla is 1 major hurricane away from total real estate collapse...as we have seen with disasters both natural (i.e., Katrina) and man-made (WTC on 9/11), Americans are resilient and recover in time. There will always be people drawn to the Florida lifestyle....the beaches, the climate, the many amenities for tourists and residents alike. Even now, the weak dollar is drawing international buyers for the multitude of high rise condos being built in downtown Miami....a weakened economy, even one resulting from a storm, will spell opportunity for some...which is how a free market economy should be.

The weak dollar is also driving the price of oil way up. The far-flung communities in Florida will hurt either way. In Florida it is very hard to tell where one major metro area ends and another one begins.

Home prices will no doubt go down to affordable 1999 levels levels. If anything is going to kill the state will be the stratospheric homeowners insurance rates and the major corporations (jobs) that will leave Florida once they realize that the financial advantages provided by the state are offset by the losses occurred by a storm. In my opinion,a major storm hitting Miami,Ft Lauderdale,West Palm Beach,Tampa or Jacksonville will severely cripple Florida,something akin to a major nuclear plant accident.

[Steve]

>>yes, but we have not seen a cat 4 or 5 in the center of a major city

True. And there are major league real estate problems in the western Panhandle (specifically parts of Walton County) and also parts of the Tampa metro (Look into the Clearwater condo market). The flip side of a major real estate collapse is the 3-10 year period after when the economy returns to boom cycle with the private and public investment that follows those types of disasters. We're in a decent boom cycle in Louisiana right now after some tough years.

Steve

[Sanibel]

Concrete son, concrete...

[Derek Ortt]

yes, but concrete did not hold up very well in those EF5 equivalent miniswirls in 1992

Plus, Miami is largely glass. Miami Beach would fare better than Miami (Wilma repairs took ~2 years here)

[Patrick99]

South Beach would be the first line of defense for a landfalling Miami storm. What would happen to South Beach with a direct strong Cat. 3-5 hit? How high would the water get? Would it just rinse right over the island in a shallow sheet? What happened to South Beach in 1926?

[MGC]

And during Katrina, concrete didn't hold up to battering waves right along the beach. I'd imagine the waves will be much bigger in S Fla because the water is deeper compared to Mississippi. I think Miami Beach is in for a big surprise when the next big Cat 4-5 pays a visit.....MGC

[Recurve]

Waves as opposed to surge? Surge potential is lower in Miami than in the north Gulf coast.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the surge in 1926 was only 10 feet at South beach. Most of the 300+ deaths were NOT from surge. They were from people trying to evacuate Miami Beach during the eye of the hurricane. They were trapped on the bridge when the back eyewall struck

That said, Miami Beach, unlike the NGC with Katrina, will have to deal with 140+ mph sustained winds in a cat 4 with gusts over 175. Those gusts are equivalent to EF4 tornadoes. Those are the violent Kansas type. Andrew and Charley (and even Ivan at Cayman) showed that re-enforced concrete may not hold up under those conditions

[wxman57]

The east coast of Florida is far less prone to surge than most areas of the Gulf coast. Here's a Cat 4 MOM (Maximum of Maximum) surge representation for SE FL. I put surge height flags all over. Note that the values at the flag ends represent height of the water/surge above MSL, NOT depth of water inland. The only place the flags represent water depth are on the beaches at 0 ft elevation above MSL.

Note that up the coast in Fort Lauderdale, a Cat 4 would only produce a 4-5 ft surge. Very deep water just offshore would prevent much surge along the east coast of Florida. However, this would allow for greater wave action. We saw Ivan remove 8-10 ft of sand beneath some large buildings in the Pensacola area - and those buildings collapsed. The water offshore Pensacola is rather deep, so it's not as susceptible to surge as other areas, but that means bigger waves can reach the beach and cause significant undermining of structures.