NWS Miami Mentions GFS/ECMWF Tropical System Possibility

[gatorcane]

Is this comment in regards to the GFS low? What do you think? If the period over the next couple of days is above climo with rain chances, what does "much wetter" mean here?

From the 2:20pm TWD:

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDING THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH CONTINUING
ABOVE CLIMO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALLIGATOR
ALLEY SOUTH, BUT DRYING OUT NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. BACK TO A
SPRING AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MODERATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ATLANTIC WATER TEMPERATURE IS CLOSE TO 80, SO EXPECT
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE LAYER SHOWERS ANYTIME BEGINNING MEMORIAL DAY.

EVEN FARTHER OUT, THE GFS IS HINTING AT A MUCH WETTER PERIOD OF
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING THURSDAY BUT MUCH CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN

[Duddy]

[Category 5]

what does "much wetter" mean here?

Well it mentions nothing of a tropical system, nor does it jump to conclusions. I think we should do the same. It's a long way out.

[boca]

what does "much wetter" mean here?

Well it mentions nothing of a tropical system, nor does it jump to conclusions. I think we should do the same. It's a long way out.

I think much wetter would be a much better senario because my son has bad allergies and the smell of smoke every morning is getting old. I'll take a depression or a weak tropical system right now.

[Category 5]

what does "much wetter" mean here?

Well it mentions nothing of a tropical system, nor does it jump to conclusions. I think we should do the same. It's a long way out.

I think much wetter would be a much better senario because my son has bad allergies and the smell of smoke every morning is getting old. I'll take a depression or a weak tropical system right now.

Even catching the tail end of a front would be helpful, pop up storms, anything.

[boca]

The good news is that the thunderstorms that occured up by Lake O settled down those muck fires out there which was causing some of the smoke.I'll take rain from a dying cold front or depression.

[Eyewall]

Nothing is being mention here in New Orleans about it. I think they will start to talk about it next week. Are they saying anything about it in Mobile or Biloxi?

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami is taking a conservative approach on this GFS low (i.e. not even mentioning it yet) as they should:

Latest NWS Mia Extended:

EXTENDED PERIOD...MON THROUGH FRI...TURNING COOLER AND DRIER MON
THROUGH WED THOUGH STRAY SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLY BREEZE COULD MOVE
ONTO THE E COAST...BUT NOT IN THE THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THU
INTO FRI...DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER S FLA AS THE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC.

[GeneratorPower]

I wouldn't assume that the lack of information of some kind or another has any meaning in a discussion. My local WFO often puts out fantasic discussions. But once in a while, there is a certain forecaster that is really bad at writing discos. Not only that, but his discussions are OFTEN way out of line with the existing forecast and what SPC and others are saying. We could literally be under a Moderate Risk from SPC and he gets on the 3am discussion and says, "a few showers are possible tomorrow but not expecting severe weather." Then the next morning, the discussion update around 10am (obviously a different forecaster) brings everyone back to reality and changes the forecast back.

I have a theory that the NWS has a few inexperienced and just plain bad forecasters here and there.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami discussion mentions the GFS "Tropical System"

THE FCST CONTINUES RATHER UNCERTAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA...BUT
THE BULK OF IT STAYS TO OUR NORTHEAST. ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS.
STILL...BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
CARIB...BUT HOW STRONG AND WHERE IT WOULD GO...IF EVEN ANYTHING
DEVELOPS...IS JUST WAY TOO FAR OUT TO TELL AT THIS TIME.

[Frank2]

Nothing mentioned in the latest discussion, but, note the "ducky" isobar at Day 5.5...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/5e/gfsx_500p_5e.html

LOL