Joe Bastardi's 2008 Hurricane Forecast

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=9

[gatorcane]

The article states:

"Our forecast is that two or three storms will bring at least tropical storm force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds, and one major hurricane," said Bastardi. "And, the Gulf of Mexico will have a normal distribution of tropical cyclone activity, with energy interests experiencing at least 7 to 10 days with disruptions or threats of disruptions. Specifically, the forecast is for two or three storms that affect the energy infrastructure in and around the Gulf and bring at least tropical storm force winds to the Gulf coast, including one or two that bring hurricane force winds."

This is just another way of stating that there is a good chance of tropical activity from Texas to New England.

I'm sorry, I just don't buy any predictions in general about tropical events taking place several months in the future. Sea Surface temperatues, mean positions of ridges and troughs, and shear is so unpredicatable and dynamic it makes long-term forecasts about where and who these storms will affect virtually impossible.

[boca]

I'm going to make a prediction for the 2008 hurricane season.Anyone from Brownsville TX to Eastport ME will be threatened this season.I'm not even getting paid to forecast that either. We won't no what set up will be until the Bermuda high gets established and that varies week to week even during the height of the season.

[KWT]

I see the NS prediction but what about the hurricanes and major hurricanes this season?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi issues a more specific forecast for PPV customers, with the Atlantic coastline from Brownsville to the Canadian maritimes divied up into 9 or 10 zones, and then issues forecasts for each zone, on a number system, with a TD being a 1, a TS being a 2, a Cat 1 being a 4, a Cat 2 being an 8, a Cat 3 being a 16, etc, with mid-cat storms, like a strong Cat 2, given a number higher than 8 but less than 16.


He has also figured out the normal score per each zone based on climatology, so one can see if he is predicting above normal, normal or below normal. He seems to have shown some skill, but I believe he was quite a bit too high on his Florida zone number last year.



He has also been discussing on the PPV column what would happen with warmer than usual mid-Atlantic temps if a strong hurricane tracked up just West of Deleware Bay during high tide and flooded Philadelphia worse than Providence, RI flooded in the 1938 hurricane. That would take a perfect scenario, but then again so would the improbable Cat 4 hitting Manhattan from the South-Southeast scenario that people like to speculate on. Hard enough getting a Cat 4 to make landfall where water temps are well above the 26 to 27ºC cut-off, NYC is generally about 100 to 200 miles North of that SST isotherm. Joe rightly points out how improbable the NYC scenario is, but instead speculates on an equally unlikely Philadelphia scenario. Of course, unlikely and impossible are two different things.

[Blown Away]

Where is his color coded target area map?

[Decomdoug]

I'm really going to go out on a limb here and predict that a tropical system will cross the coast of the U.S. somewhere between Brownsville TX and Boston MA during the 2008 hurricane season. If you would like my in-depth analyses, please send $35.00 to my website http://WWW.panicandfearsells.com (not real)

It is pretty early to predict storm impacts when we don't really know how the weather patterns are going to set up, much less that the atmosphere is a fluid and dynamic environment that changes constantly.

I can’t help but wonder when the first “Season’s a Bust” will show up. Probably June 2

Keep smiling, the entertainment value alone is priceless.

[Stormcenter]

Look I'm a JB fan but this is ridiculous. Talk about covering all bases.

[CourierPR]

I am forecasting at least one minimal hurricane to form either in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Caribbean Sea during the upcoming storm season.

[AnnularCane]

Season's a bust.

I forecast multiple invests, some of which will become at least tropical depressions. Many of these TD's will go on to become stronger. Some may hit land, and some may not.

That forecast was $50. I will be expecting all of you who read it to pay up.

[Decomdoug]

Season's a bust.

I forecast multiple invests, some of which will become at least tropical depressions. Many of these TD's will go on to become stronger. Some may hit land, and some may not.

That forecast was $50. I will be expecting all of you who read it to pay up.

I am sending my credit card number as I type, Could I also receive a bottle of your magic antitropicalevent dust?

[RL3AO]

My forecast is that all named storms will form in the GOM, BOC, Caribbean, or Atlantic Ocean, north of the equator.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, wasn't 1981 and 1982 really, really, quiet years nationwide for hurricanes?

Ok, wrong 1981- Dennis in Florida per Wiki.

82 and 83 were slow as well, although HOU area sawits last (marginal) major hurricane.

[RL3AO]

IIRC, wasn't 1981 and 1982 really, really, quiet years nationwide for hurricanes?

Most of the early 80s were average or very inactive seasons. Texas had some action in 1980, but otherwise it was normal or below.

[KWT]

Yep both seasons were pretty queit though overall the 1981 appears to have had about average activity with a few decently strong cape verde type storms.

Out of the seasons Joe uses certainly some impressive storms from all 4 of his seasons he uses...out of the 80's, apart from maybe 1989 (due to mainly Hugo...) 1985 was a pretty active season for the states and whilst it was fairly close to normal as well it had several strong landfalling hurricanes.

[terstorm1012]

JB has some skill, I think, so we'll just have to wait and see.

His Philadelphia/Delaware Bay scenario is not made up and is featured in The Philadelphia Area Weather Book that was published sometime around 2002. It is within the realm of possibility, Isabel did bring a storm surge to Philly, but I can't say if a direct strike has actually happened since the city and region was settled in the 1640s.


*edited for clarity.

[Blown Away]

Anybody know got his color coded target area map?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody know got his color coded target area map?

The zone map will be up on the PPV site when he returns from Houston, but I think it'd be violating the terms of the PPV agreement to post them on an open interweb forum.

[Blown Away]

Anybody know got his color coded target area map?

The zone map will be up on the PPV site when he returns from Houston, but I think it'd be violating the terms of the PPV agreement to post them on an open interweb forum.

Ok, last year I thought I saw his 2007 zone map on the website w/o PPV.

[Wolfray1]

His more detailed forecast was posted today. Did not see much different from the preview forecast. Just more detailed. East coast is his target area from the Carolinas north.....