Long Range Models

[Meso]

These Model Runs Are In Excess Of 150 Hours And Are For Entertainment Purposes

DISCLAIMER : THIS THREAD CONSISTS OF LONG RANGE MODEL PLOTS WHICH ARE EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE AND SHOULD NOT BE FOLLOWED FOR ANY OTHER PURPOSE THAN INTEREST OF WEATHER.

I think we had something like this the past 3 seasons,where there is a thread for those who enjoy looking at long term model runs,for whatever personal reasons.But to avoid having 100 threads on unlikely situations 1 thread where you can post model runs hinting at something developing.When the season starts the thread may longer be needed but as for now...Here we go...And for those who don't like looking at long term model runs,avoid this

And to start it off... Latest GFS run... Shows a low off Africa,but it loses it shortly after

[Cyclone1]

Great idea.

[MiamiensisWx]

Terrible idea...

These "threads" do not hold or advertise any particular scientific value to the majority of the members.

[Cyclone1]

Terrible idea...

Don't follow you. This thread will cut down on MANY "GFS shows cyclone near Leewards at 5484hrs" threads.

[Category 5]

Terrible idea...

Don't follow you. This thread will cut down on MANY "GFS shows cyclone near Leewards at 5484hrs" threads.

The thread clearly says entertainment purposes, but many people take them seriously so this won't cut down on anything.

And MiamiensisWx has a point.

Humor is one thing, but this isn't exactly humor. The only thing this will do is confuse people and give them a place to run up post counts.

[Opal storm]

Terrible idea...

These "threads" do not hold or advertise any particular scientific value to the majority of the members.

Last I checked this is a TALKIN TROPICS forum. If you don't like it then don't open the thread. We've had a thread like this every season, what makes this year so different?

[Cyclone1]

Terrible idea...

These "threads" do not hold or advertise any particular scientific value to the majority of the members.

Last I checked this is a TALKIN TROPICS forum. If you don't like it then don't open the thread. We've had a thread like this every season, what makes this year so different?

Excellent point. I agree.

[MiamiensisWx]

Last I checked this is a TALKIN TROPICS forum. If you don't like it then don't open the thread. We've had a thread like this every season, what makes this year so different?

...and when have most of the members been "experts"? Most (the majority) of this forum's "demographics" are homeowners or residents. Therefore, while the vast majority do not take these threads at face value, there will be some who definitely rely on long range model output and blame everything and the lack of development on the models when it was the person's own fault. Our forecasting has progressed a LONG way from the late 1990s and early 2000s, but some people abuse it and worship the long range guidance instead of the short or medium term solutions.

[RL3AO]

Whether we have this thread or not, there will still be "GFS has major cane into Florida at 312 hours".

[Eyewall]

I am really not a big fan of long range computer models I only put some trust in them when there is a storm out there.

[Ptarmigan]

Long range models can be accurate and useful to get an idea what it will be like. However, they get it wrong sometimes.

[Meso]

Some people enjoy watching models regardless of how long range they are.Every year we end up making a thread like this it seems which ends up with tons of pages (Which would have normally ended up in a thousands different thread) So like it or not,it does save threads and I know a few members who enjoy watching long range models,I primarily track atlantic activity so this is what I wait and hope for,the first signs of any storm.Whether it be phantom or not.

Nobody 'worships' long rang models,it's for fun...
Anybody who basis emergency plans on long range models even when there is a disclaimer,are idiots anyway.
If you have something against the fun of model watching,don't click on the topic.


While long tange models are wrong on cyclone intensity and location most times,often when it shows something it is hinting at favourable conditions.And on a broader scale can sometimes give a hint to the over all pressure patterns.I enjoy watching it,and I know other members do to.


And with that :

Little low in the SW gulf at 252 hours

[Eyewall]

I am not against long range computer modles I just don't put alot of trust in them when we start talking about a storm possible with in three weeks and 364 days out. When these modles can not even get it right in a two day forecast of a storm hitting land.

[Meso]

And rightly so too That's the attitude that should be taken,they aren't reliable and should never be trusted and definitely shouldn't be "zomg the 384 hour puts it over my house,immediate evacuation" but they are fun.Some people treat them as though they are the anti-christ though which seems kind of silly too,as long as they aren't abused by people saying "omg we're doomed,long range model shows cat 5!" or creating a new thread for every low it shows then things are okay.My post was mainly for MiamiensisWx.

And as for offering something scientific to the community,everyone tracks storms for different reasons.Humour,this isn't meant to humour though it's to give something to watch for those who wait anxiously for a year for hurricane season to start.There have been some good long range hits by the GFS recently too.

The way I see it is,if you don't agree with watching long range models,ignore the thread.If you like to watch the models ahead of time and stuff then check the thread.This isn't something new,a few years ago there were tons of random model threads so they were joined into one and it saved a lot of space and a lot of clicking for those who aren't interested in such.

I will update the disclaimer to be more specific so that no one can complain about confusion


And here is a lil something something from the 06z

[Category 5]

Wait until the season comes and we start getting storms. We'll be using LBAR runs for entertainment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS, which has a fairly coarse grid to begin with, has resolution reduced by half at 180 hours. If one is starving for excitement, the 348 hour GFS is as good a source as possible, and I suppose if a lot of the ensembles show conditions generally favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, or a general lowering of pressures with convection, it could have some value, especially if repeat runs have similar prognostications, but really, when lacking excitement, blob watching is more interesting, even blobs out of season and in unfavorable areas, because at least one can post images from satellite in the rainbow color scheme or Funktop or something.


I've never paid close enough attention, but I wonder which is more clueless, the Canadian predicting a cyclone at 144 hours or the GFS predicting a cyclone at 240 hours.

[Recurve]

...
I've never paid close enough attention, but I wonder which is more clueless, the Canadian predicting a cyclone at 144 hours or the GFS predicting a cyclone at 240 hours.

For thrills in Florida, I watch the CMC at 144 hours rather than go to scary movies or amusement parks.

[Meso]

Gfs still showing a trough reaching down into the gulf at 240 hours

The canadian is indeed a fun model,often it's when the canadian is showing a cat 5 you know there may be a TS coming

[USTropics]

IMO the GFS long range was created for some sort of purpose, mostly to find relative spots for a trending pattern (such as an area of low pressure consistent in model runs or as Meso is showing a trough extending into the GOM) and not to forecast a direct impact of a tropical system in an absolute location. Anyone that frequents this board (and I hope this is the case) has the common sense to realize that anything even 72 hours out is iffy when it comes to models and that the NHC forecast should be the real deciding factor in executing your emergency preperations. I can't count how many times last years the models (specifically the GFS and the GFDL) had Dean going into the GOM through the Yucatan Strait, then back to Central America, then back into the GOM over a span of 2-4 model runs even 4 days from landfall! Models are inconsistent, that's a known fact, so there's no harm in watching something 4 days out or 2-3 weeks out, either has the potential to be innacurate.

[Meso]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Shows lots of waves coming off Africa,a few have a low pressure for a while but nothing significant,also more moisture in the carribean near the end