Nice blob of convection on East Atlantic

[vegastar]

I noticed it this morning and thought that by this time it would be away, but it is holding on at 25ºW:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=12,d=1,v=400,pp=0,t=200805061730#controls

and



I guess it will be gone tonight but right now it looks good.

[RL3AO]

5 more degrees north and 4 weeks later and we would be looking at an invest.

[KWT]

Yep thats another nice area of convection in that part of the Atlantic, there have been several such convective blobs in that region over the last 2 weeks. As you say it will fizzle but as I keep saying a little hint that the tropics are starting to get going a little bit now.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing much should be expected but nice to see.

[KWT]

Yep its a nice convective blob, if this was late August we'd have to watch this very closely indeed.

By the way is there any link that shows the ITCZ current position?

[RL3AO]

By the way is there any link that shows the ITCZ current position?

[HURAKAN]

This shot looks excellent!!! I just wish it was the hurricane season.

[KWT]

thats a great image there, decent convection present!

Also interesting to see just how far south the ITCZ, also interesting to see that atlantic wave that came off Africa last week, wonder if that will do anything in the Pacific...

[cycloneye]

ITCZ inside Africa as it normally does this time of the year is climbing in latitud.The red line.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe this'll be the "A" storm when it reaches the East Pac.

[KWT]

Won't be long therefore before we start to see an increase in the dust levels being dragged into the Atlantic on the ITCZ then cycloneye.

Still its at least another month and a half before we can realistically say we have to watch out for such systems, for example we did see a TD form in 2000 in late June.

[HURAKAN]

[StormspinnerD2]

I think this is far too low in latitude to develop (it's south of 5N); it's just ITCZ anyway. The Atlantic is still fairly hostile for development this early on.

[Cyclone1]

Err... wow.

Already picking up.

[HURAKAN]

I think no one believes it will develop, although it may do so in the EPAC, but it looks very interesting for the month of May.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM EDT Discussion:

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37/38W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. LATESTS
VIS SAT IMAGERY FOR THE DAY REVEALED WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N WHERE THERE ARE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS ALSO SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WAVE WITH A PRONOUNCED BULGE OF MOISTURE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUE.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

I want this wave to reach the Eastern Caribbean to clean what we have now here and that is plenty of dust.

[Recurve]

That was some fairly strong looking convection. Did anything survive? I don't have a good west Atlantic sat image.

[StormspinnerD2]

No. It's hard for convection to survive when there's a jet not far north of 10N.

[MiamiensisWx]

No. It's hard for convection to survive when there's a jet not far north of 10N.

Actually, the divergence often enhances convection, especially in the case of an easterly wave or broad open surface trough. The convection eventually decreases when the shear diminishes.

Nothing unusual...

[Category 5]

Going poof in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.....